‘The Paris Agreement is not dead yet’, climate analysts insisted this week, after crunching the numbers on the latest slew of green policies pledged by countries around the world. But with hope comes the risk of fatal complacency. Joe Biden’s White House win, China’s carbon neutrality pledge, and Japan’s net-zero emissions plans have led researchers to conclude that global warming is now on track to hit 2.1 degrees by the end of the century. That means that about half a degree has been knocked off predictions from a few years ago and the world is, as a result, just 0.1 degrees shy of meeting the Paris Agreement’s top-line temperature target. But – and it is worth pointing out on at least a semi-regular basis – a 2 degrees warmer world is still a nightmare scenario, where inhabitable parts of the planet become arid wastelands, crops fail, migration crises spiral out of control and coastal communities are consigned to oblivion. So the good news is that there is indeed hope if more countries, particularly big emitters like Brazil, India, and Russia, feel the pressure and throw their lot in with the climate coalition that is slowly taking shape. The bad news is that there are still a few fundamental issues holding the green effort back. First and foremost is the persistent idea that the 1.5 degrees of warming Paris target is just an aspirational goal, that it is far out of reach, and that there is no point burning political capital to meet it. As detailed above, we cannot afford not to aim for it. Second, is the insistence that a balance must still be struck between what is scientifically recommended and what is politically feasible. The UK will be guilty of that when it formally announces a new 68% emissions-cutting goal for 2030. Experts have said that at least 72% should be the benchmark and that it is affordable. Given the historical emissions of countries like Britain, the beating heart of the Industrial Revolution, a much bigger commitment should be expected. Third, is the mistake of resting on our laurels. Take energy efficiency improvements as an example: measures like building renovations and insulation reduce power demand and lower bills, but as renewable energy capacity increases, there could be an undesired effect. Why bother spending millions of euros doing up homes and offices to save on power if energy is rapidly becoming cheaper and cleaner? So long as a building is completely powered by the limitless potential of wind and solar, everything is fine, right? READ MORE |