Assuming that the future of the EU migration and asylum pact is resolved next week, the attention of European leaders will shift to the bloc’s future, specifically whether it will take on new members. The matter will likely be high on the agenda at next week’s EU summit hosted by the Spanish government in Granada. Ukraine, in particular, has stepped up its lobbying efforts in national capitals. Its ministers insist that Kyiv is ready to begin the decisive stages of accession talks. The European Commission is due to publish its annual enlargement package in October, ahead of deeper discussions among EU leaders at a summit in December. One question facing the Commission and national leaders is how an EU with more than 30 states – assuming the EU makes good on its promises to its Eastern and Balkan neighbours – can function. Part of the rationale used by successive UK governments to support EU enlargement was that a larger EU would inevitably be shallower. This, the argument went, would mean that the single market – the main value of the EU to London – would develop faster than political union and create a de facto multi-tier Europe. The proof lies in the wildly differing stances among member states across swathes of EU policy areas, particularly economical and monetary union and the bloc’s foreign policy. The UK may be out of the club, but the dilemma remains. |