| Now that, after decades of fighting, Azerbaijan has regained full control of the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, has the wider region become a safer place? Or is the reverse actually true? As some kind of pragmatic consolation, one might say that Azerbaijan was always going to have the upper hand in the end – and that at least the endgame was not too protracted or more bloody. Indeed, Azerbaijan, an authoritarian country rich in oil and gas with a population of over 10 million, has become a serious military power, while its rival Armenia, with a population of 2.8 million, is on the economic decline, compounded by political instability. What has prevented Azerbaijan over decades from asserting its control over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated region inside its territory, is that Armenia is in a sort-of a military alliance with Russia, as a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), whose other members are Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Azerbaijan too has an ally. Although there is no military pact between Baku and Ankara, Turkey provided decisive military support in the last Karabakh war in 2020, which improved the Azeri positions, further squeezing the Armenians in Karabakh. In 2023, the situation is different: Russia is too busy with the full-scale war it started against Ukraine. Moreover, in this war, which has pitted Moscow against the West, Russia needs Turkey, at least as a friend, if not an outright ally. Therefore, for Russia, dropping Armenia was not a problem. | 