21/11/24View in Browser

Informing Donald Trump about frozen conflicts

By Georgi Gotev

 

 

Donald Trump promised a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine. If he succeeds, the most likely outcome is a ceasefire based on the current front lines remaining in place. This means, however, another frozen conflict, rather than peace.

Does Trump know that frozen conflicts are a Russian speciality? And does he know the reasons why Russia engineers such scenarios?

Assuming he does not, here is what he should know.

In the context of post-Soviet international relations, a frozen conflict is where active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework is in place to resolve it.

The main reason why Russia engineers frozen conflicts is to prevent post-Soviet countries it borders from getting close to the EU and NATO.

As a rule, the EU and NATO require an applicant country to solve territorial disputes with its neighbours before it joins. (A huge exception was made for Cyprus, which joined the EU in 2004 while not controlling almost half of its territory, now considered EU territory, despite being under the orders of Ankara.)

Russia likes to make sure that several independent post-Soviet states have sovereignty over the entirety of their territory in name only. In reality, Russian puppets still control large swathes of their country.

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The Roundup

Italian healthcare workers strike over wage disputes and budget cuts. Particularly against the government’s decision to allocate fewer resources for health care in the 2025 budget.

MEPs approved Spanish commissioner-designate Teresa Ribera's bid on Wednesday, but she still blamed Partido Popular (EPP) for their handling of the deadly floods in Valencia.

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Look out for
  • The UN Climate Change Conference, COP29, continues in Baku, Azerbaijan.
  • The European Parliament holds a pre-Strasbourg plenary session briefing. The vote on the new Commission will most likely dominate next week.
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[Edited by Rajnish Singh/Alice Taylor-Braçe]
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