26/11/24View in Browser

Putin's plan: Euromissile crisis 2.0

By Georgi Gotev

 

 

Russia recklessly fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine in response to the US and UK, allowing Kyiv to use their missiles to strike further into Russian territory. Can the Euromissile crisis of 1976-1988 hold the key to understanding Putin escalating the war?

The song remains the same. By deploying the medium-range strategic SS-20 missile in 1976, the USSR sought to intimidate the Europeans, erode NATO cohesion, and perhaps lead to 'decoupling' Europe from the US nuclear deterrent.

By launching an experimental ‘Oreshnik’ missile on Dnipro on 21 November, Putin had the same idea, with the bonus of terrifying the Ukrainians. He also likely thought decoupling Europe from the US nuclear deterrent would be easier following Donald Trump's win in the recent presidential elections.

The ‘Oreshnik’ (hazel tree) missile is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), a class of weapons prohibited under a 1988 treaty that ended the Euromissile crisis. Coincidentally, Donald Trump ended the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty during his first term in 2019.

Nuclear deterrence is historically based on both the USA and the USSR/Russia possessing arsenals of intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads capable of mutual assured destruction (MAD). The hope with MAD is that this prospect is undesirable and disastrous enough to prevent nuclear strikes.

Euromissiles were a game changer. In March 1976, the Soviet Union began deploying a new missile, the SS-20, that upset the balance of power in Europe. It was one of the pivotal events of the Cold War.

The multiple-warhead SS-20 had a range of 5,000 km – just short of the 5,500 that would have made it subject to SALT treaty arms control – and could hit any point in Western Europe from launch sites in the Soviet Union. It was more accurate than the older missiles, and it was also mobile and easily concealed.

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The Roundup

Angela Merkel – What Merkel revealed about her European legacy ahead of her memoir launch. Pre-launch interviews suggest that she is out to defend her controversial record.

Angela Merkel – Experts: Merkel’s decisions contributed to multiple German and EU crises, including the Ukraine war, though experts differ on her effectiveness.

Romanian politics – Călin Georgescu, the far-right outsider who could be Romania’s new president, is challenging the pro-Ukraine position and emphasising engaging with Russia.

Defence – Defence ministers from Germany, France, Poland, Italy, and the UK met in Berlin. The E5 discussed Ukraine, advancing initiatives, and responding to growing global instability.

Technology – Meta calls for EU regulation on age verification. Age verification should happen at the operating system or app store level, said the company.

Ukraine war – A poll shows only a few Ukrainians will consider leaving Poland. Only 34% said the end of the war would impact their decision.

Health – Unions warn EU healthcare assistants are struggling to make a living wage. Amid ongoing protests in Italy, a report by EPSU reveals disparities in pay across Europe.

Economy – Industrial policy also means 'letting losers go,' says the EU Development Bank. The industrial transition towards climate neutrality "cannot be painless."

French politics – Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo will not seek reelection in 2026. She is best known for overseeing the 2024 Paris Olympic Games, and her environmental efforts.

Bulgarian politics – Borissov vows to bring Bulgaria into the eurozone if named PM. But he has failed to form a government, another election will probably be on the cards.

EU-Israel relations – Italian FM says talks with Netanyahu key to Middle East peace despite ICC warrant. Tajani said he hoped the G7 reach a unified decision on the arrest warrant.

Look out for
  • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will present her new Commission and its programme to MEPs at the Strasbourg plenary session of the European Parliament, France.
  • MEPs will then vote on the new college of commissioners and its programme.
  • European Council President Charles Michel meets the President of Botswana in Brussels, Belgium.
  • European Commissioner Ylva Johansson attends the European Conference on Drug-Related Violence in Brussels, Belgium.
  • MEPs will discuss the future of the farming and manufacturing sectors in the EU.
  • MEPs will also debate how to step up the fight against and the prevention of the recruitment of minors for criminal acts.
  • Other MEP debates include; vulnerabilities and hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea, the rise of energy prices and fighting energy poverty, legislation targeting LGBTQI persons and the need for protecting the rule of law and a discrimination-free Union, promoting a favourable framework for venture capital financing and safe foreign direct investments in the EU, breaches of human rights, democracy and the rule of law, and recommendations on smoke and aerosol-free environments.
 
[Edited by Rajnish Singh/Alice Taylor-Braçe]
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