| Russia’s aggression against Ukraine produces images of Armageddon-type destruction: Mariupol, Bakhmut, now Avdiivka. But against this background, there is a place in Ukraine that seems secure: the route of the pipeline still transporting Russian gas across the country to clients in the EU. Although an onshore pipeline is extremely vulnerable in times of war, some call the Sudzha-Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline (formerly known as the Brotherhood pipeline) the safest place in Ukraine. Remarkably, the 4,500 kilometres-long pipeline remains intact as the war approaches its two-year anniversary. Business is business. Both Russia and Ukraine are making all efforts not to inadvertently damage the pipe, which continues to transit Russian gas to Europe and bring foreign currency to Moscow and Kyiv. Kyiv stopped buying Russian gas after Moscow annexed Crimea in November 2015. After Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, many EU countries stopped buying Russian gas, but some continued, and Gazprom continued to pay Ukraine a transit fee for the commodity. Ukraine’s Naftogaz and Gazprom signed in December 2019 a five-year gas transit agreement under ship-or-pay terms, meaning Gazprom is obliged to pay for transit whether it uses it or not. Ukraine counts on gas transit revenues worth $7 billion until the deal expires in 2024. Before the 2022 invasion, some 40 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y) were contracted to flow annually via the “Brotherhood” pipeline. Today, the figures are much lower. Of the Russian gas transiting Ukraine in 2023, 6 billion bcm went to Austria, 6.5 bcm to Slovakia and 1 bcm to Hungary. Ukraine indeed stopped buying gas from Russia in November 2015 but instead buys it indirectly from traders in the EU as part of the Russian gas that transits through Ukraine via the so-called “reverse flows”. The agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024, and Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko ruled out last August the prospect of Kyiv taking part in any talks with Russia regarding future arrangements for gas transit. In all likelihood, the contract will end on 31 December 2024 without renewal. | 