Theatre director Thomas Bellinck’s dystopian vision ‘The House of European History in Exile’, a museum exhibition in Brussels in 2013, when Brexit itself looked improbable, predicted that an independent Scotland would be the last country to join the EU. His exhibition forecast that the UK would leave the EU, resulting in Scotland joining the EU in 2017. The EU itself would then collapse a year later. At the time, it looked like a triumph of wild artistic licence over logic. Fast forward to 2021 and while the prospect of EU collapse is still a Eurosceptic fantasy, the conditions for a Scottish independence referendum could scarcely be better. Thursday’s elections in Scotland are likely to give the Scottish National Party another majority and a mandate for a second referendum on Scottish independence. The SNP’s internal rows between First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her predecessor Alex Salmond have damaged the party and public demands for independence. For most of the last five years, opinion polls have shown a narrow majority in favour of Scottish independence. There is currently a near dead heat. After nearly 14 years in government in Edinburgh, the SNP is starting to fray, and its record on a range of policies, including health and education, is facing growing criticism. Even so, the SNP enjoys political advantages that others can only dream of. By suspending normal politics, and giving prime ministers and government ministers even more coverage than usual, the COVID-19 pandemic has, by and large, been good for incumbents. Months after being castigated for having presided over the highest COVID death toll in Europe, Boris Johnson has now been rewarded for the UK’s speedy vaccination programme with a ten-point poll boost. His Conservative party will perform well in most of Thursday’s polls in Scotland, Wales and local councils, though not, as ever, in Remain capital London. In Scotland, the incumbency advantage is even more pronounced. Since health and social policy is a devolved competence, the SNP have been able to make these polls a referendum on Sturgeon, who is widely thought to have performed well throughout the pandemic. READ MORE |