The National Rally prepares the government for the guillotine

By Laurent Geslin 

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier succeeded in forming a government after long negotiations, but its days are already numbered as all French political parties are preparing for new elections.

Smiles were appropriate during the first Cabinet meeting at the Élysée Palace on Monday, 23 September, but Barnier’s government carries a burden that it will find impossible to shake off.

For the first time since World War II, the far-right holds the fate of the French executive in its hands.

The 142 deputies from the National Rally (RN) and their allies could vote a motion of no confidence against the government during the Prime Minister’s general policy speech in front of the National Assembly on 1 October. This motion will mathematically pass if supported by the representatives of the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP).

“We are the ones who will decide if this government has a future,” said RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a member of the party’s national office, on France Inter on 23 September.

There is no need, however, to worry just yet; Marine Le Pen and her troops have no immediate interest in playing the executioner. According to the constitution, new early legislative elections cannot be held before July 2025.

They just need to wait and sharpen their weapons.

“The RN doesn’t need to press the nuclear button,” an NFP deputy told me last week. “The far-right is advancing its priorities in the public debate, such as the fight against immigration, and is influencing government policy, all while relentlessly criticising the executive.”

France says it is willing to reopen EU negotiations on the Migration Pact and test the limits of the Schengen agreements, new Home Affairs Minister Bruno Retailleau announced, following in the footsteps of an increasing number of member states.

EU ministers criticised an underemphasis on Ukraine in Hungary’s agenda for its presidency of the bloc, at a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday (24th September).

The European Commission approved the acquisition of Amsterdam-based PPF Telecom by United Arab Emirates firm e&, subject to conditions, according to a Tuesday (24 September) press release.

The UK wants to host Europe’s captured CO2 in its new storage infrastructure, but post-Brexit regulatory challenges complicate the collaboration with the EU.

The return of veteran Agnès Pannier-Runacher as the new French minister for ecology and energy gives the nuclear industry a champion in Brussels, but domestic political instability may limit her negotiating power with the EU.

Ukraine’s Western partners need to step up in providing air defences for Kyiv’s war effort, as Russia is likely to try to knock out the country’s energy infrastructure before winter, EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell said on Monday (23 September).

As relations between the EU and Tehran hit a historic low, European officials met with their Iranian counterparts this week in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

Look out for…

• The European Commission organises  “2024 Fisheries Science Seminar – Artificial Intelligence”  in Brussels.
• PubAffairs Brussels organises a hybrid conference, “What will the EU’s Industrial Policy look like in the next legislative term?” 
• FEPS think tank organises a conference “Forging the new EU agenda” in Brussels.
• IIEA think tank organises an online conference “Open-Source Intelligence and the War in Ukraine”
• Counter Extremism Project (CEP) organises an online conference debate “Is Aid Diversion a Major Problem in Yemen, Afghanistan and Somalia?”
• EPC Brussels organises an online conference debate “The run-up to the US elections: Transatlantic countdown”
• Pan Europe Brussels organises a Hybrid workshop titled “Protecting farm workers and citizens in rural areas against pesticides”
• UN General Assembly, New York, 24-30 September 2024
• European Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas delivers the introductory remarks at the conference “The European Union necessary condition” organised by Fundación Carlos de Amberes, in Madrid, Spain.
• European Commissioner Helena Dalli meets with Bulgarian LGBTIQ Activists from ILGA and Amnesty International, to discuss the current situation in Bulgaria, in Brussels, Belgium.
• European Commissioner Stella Kyriakides delivers a speech at the UN General Assembly side event ‘Fostering Cross-Country Solidarity to Address Antimicrobial Resistance in the WHO European Region and Beyon’, in New York, US.
• She will also participate in the Foreign Policy – Health Forum – The Power of Prevention: Universal HPV Vaccination Strategies.
• EU Chief Diplomat Josep Borrell participates in the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, in New York, US.
• Borell will also participate in the G20 Foreign Affairs Ministers Meeting, co-host a ministerial meeting on Sudan, and host a meeting with the Western Balkans Leaders.
• European Commission Executive Vice President Maroš Šefčovič receives President of Europêche Javier Garat.
• Šefčovič will also receive a delegation of Irish Church leaders.
• European Commissioner Nicholas Schmit participates in the Trade Union Forum on Platform Work, Platforum, in Paris, France.
• European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra participates in a high-level panel on global solidarity levies and financing for development, organised by the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force, in New York, US.
• Wopke will also meet the Norwegian Minister for Climate and Environment Tore Onshuus Sandvik, and, UK Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Edward Miliband, in separate meetings.
• European Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski meets farming representatives and visits a farm in Kadino, in North Macedonia.
• European Commissioner Ylva Johansson meets with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, African Cooperation, and Mauritanians Abroad of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Mohamed Salem Ould Merzoug, in New York, US.

[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe/Rajnish Singh]