The point of no return

By Georgi Gotev

When does a country that has been in Russia’s orbit and is now attracted to the EU reach the point of no return from becoming part of the free world? The Moldova vote suggests some answers. 

So far, the EU's reaction to the dramatic Moldova vote has been three–staged: shock, relief, and self-congratulation.

Shock because the first news reports on Monday morning pointed at a victory of the “no” camp in the referendum to enshrine EU membership in the constitution.

Until the vote count from abroad tilted the result, the stupefaction and distress were particularly strong in Romania. The country that thought it could achieve reunification with its brothers across the Prut River, thanks to EU enlargement. Brussels-based Romanians said this was like decades of effort and hope, vanishing into the air.

Should anyone be surprised that Russia is capable of influencing – and even buying elections in its neighbourhood?

Russia’s interference in the run-up to the Moldova elections was hardly a secret. In the last couple of months, we counted at least 10 Euractiv articles warning of massive election interference, interference from Western-sanctioned fugitive oligarchs, manipulation of the Gagauz ethnicity, pumping up support for the pro-Kremlin Socialists, outright vote-buying, and much more.

It is not the first – and will not be the last time – Russia will pull the strings in the former Soviet Republic, where its secret services feel at home.

In a statement issued on Monday evening, Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, and Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, laid the groundwork for better inclusion of parliamentarians in EU lawmaking.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Finland’s hawkish President Alexander Stubb will discuss Ukraine’s ‘victory plan’ on Tuesday, as the Finnish foreign minister urged Germany to shed its reservations about weapon deliveries and embrace its "very important role".

With Moldova's knife-edge elections this weekend, European officials are concerned next year's parliamentary elections could be an even bigger fight to keep the country on a pro-European course.

Former EU commissioner Thierry Breton had an "excellent meeting" with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest on Monday (21 October), according to his comments on X.

Politicians in Bucharest are thrilled Moldova voted to join the EU in a close referendum held amidst reported disinformation campaigns and hybrid aggression by Moscow.

Prominent Bulgarian television journalist Maria Tsantsarova has been the subject of a scathing political attack by the radical pro-Russian party Vazrazhdane and the populists of There Is Such a People days before snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 27 October.

Some experts have warned about Russia’s nefarious impact on the recent elections in Moldova, highlighting the urgent need for EU support to bolster democratic institutions and counter disinformation, as Moscow's efforts to influence the country are expected to continue.

The Spanish government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is finalising the details of a massive regularisation of hundreds of thousands of immigrants living in the country, in sharp contrast to the recent migration control plans of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Look out for

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visits the Western Balkans, which includes North Macedonia and
  Bosnia and Herzegovina.
• Von der Leyen will also visit Albania to meet Prime Minister Edi Rama.
• The European Parliament will debate the following issues in Strasbourg Plenary; managing migration and returns, tackling the steel crisis, war crimes committed by the Russian Federation, notably killing Ukrainian prisoners of war, U-turn on EU bureaucracy, Court of Auditors' annual report 2023, Poland's abortion law, seven years from the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia, role of cities and regions in the EU, and foreign interference and hybrid attacks, sanctions against Russia, and the need to strengthen European rail travel and the railway sector.
• European Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be in Warsaw, Poland, participating in the Food Safety Congress, organised by International Featured Standards and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.
• Commissioner Nicholas Schmit meets Greece’s Minister of Labour and Social Security, Niki Kerameus, in Brussels, Belgium.

[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe/Rajnish Singh]