| On the hunt for lawmakers to bolster her chances at a second term at the helm of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen may end up taking the Greens to the ball – because, in their own words, they offer stability. It is a story of Germans working with Germans. As of the time of writing, the traditional European Parliament alliance of the centre-left S&D, liberal Renew, and centre-right EPP holds 399 seats. With 720 total lawmakers, that should be enough to provide a majority for any would-be Commission president. The problem is the unknown number of potential deserters: Some, like the Irish liberals, have already openly stated their intention to vote against her. Failing to get a majority before Parliament would irreparably damage von der Leyen. So her strategists calculate with a 15% margin of error, drawing from lessons learnt in 2019 when she barely scraped through. Meaning at least 420 “guaranteed” lawmakers are mathematically needed to be sure. Aside from the top job ballet taking place in Brussels this week, the question on everyone’s mind is: Who will Europe’s most powerful woman take to the ball in Strasbourg? Will it be Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s ultra-successful post-fascist superwoman, looming large over her nationalist ECR? Or will it be the battered Greens, reeling from the loss of swathes of popular support? In the end, it looks like the Greens will be the ones to get the German politician past 420. This is how things could go down: The ECR came out of the EU elections far weaker than expected – and is far from united. Including them would also see some S&D delegations refuse to join in. Don’t expect Italy’s centre-left PD to be seen voting alongside Meloni’s lawmakers. It would also give the centre-left a convenient reason to demand additional concessions – already, the EPP is outflanking the S&D in the fight for EU top jobs. The socialists want their pound of flesh. | 
