| Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in the US, bringing to his interlocutors what he calls a “truly just” peace plan. But let’s face it: peace is not around the corner. At Zelenskyy's request, a Summit on Peace in Ukraine was held in Switzerland on 15 and 16 June, 2024. The Russian Government was not invited, which already indicated that the summit could not achieve much. In response, President Vladimir Putin offered his terms for a ceasefire and peace negotiations, which Kyiv and its allies described as a request based on Ukraine’s capitulation. At the close of the Swiss peace summit, Zelenskyy said Ukraine would be prepared to hold peace talks with Russia if it withdrew from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. This, conversely, sounds like a Russian capitulation. The Swiss Government said it was “convinced that Russia must be included in this process as it progresses” and that “a peace process without Russia is inconceivable.” Zelenskyy plans a second Swiss-type peace summit in November, signalling that he will invite Moscow's representatives this time, but Russia has already said it will not attend. Emboldened by recent Russian gains on the battlefield, modest as they may be, Putin continues to call for victory. But first and foremost, Putin will wait patiently for the 5 November US elections, hoping that Trump, if elected, will end this war before his inauguration on 20 January 2025, as the latter has said. A peace brokered by Trump would largely be on Putin’s terms, much like the Minsk agreements he negotiated in 2014 with Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel. Such agreements only freeze a conflict until Russia decides to reopen it. If Kamala Harris gets the presidency, it will be a different scenario. But nobody knows if she will stick to the prudent policy of the Biden administration, embodied by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, not to cross red lines. She may choose to provide Ukraine with the weapons needed to put the Kremlin in jeopardy, and nudge the world closer to nuclear war. There are many reasons why peace in Ukraine is difficult to imagine. Many Ukrainians say - and they know the Russians inside out - that it is not in Putin’s interest to end this war, especially if it remains a low-intensity conflict. Putin simply needs this conflict to stay in power. Ending the war would unleash terrible questions Putin wants to avoid. Why did he start the war? Was the loss of so many Russian lives justified? | 