Bloomberg Evening Briefing

Humans have tried to predict the weather for as long as there have been floods and droughts. But in recent years, climate science, advanced computing and satellite imagery have supercharged their ability to do so. Computer models can gauge the likelihood of fire, flooding or other perils at the scale of a single building lot and looking decades into the future. Startups that develop these models have proliferated, buoyed by venture capital and private equity. The models are already guiding the decisions of companies around the US and across the globe hoping to climate-proof their assets. And while there’s no doubt that this future-facing information is badly needed—particularly by local governments tasked with protecting lives—there’s a big catch. Most private risk modelers closely guard their intellectual property, meaning models often aren’t transparent enough to allow for rigorous independent vetting. And given that decisions informed by models that can’t be inspected may soon affect billions of lives and trillions of dollars—well, you can see the problem

Here are today’s top stories

Warren Buffett’s sudden sale of a huge pile of Apple shares has come with a surprise silver lining for investors in the iPhone maker: Its influence in major stock indexes is set to be fully unleashed. Apple’s weighting in a slew of benchmarks has been depressed for years because Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway tends to hold its investments for the long run, making them unavailable for trading. As a result, index providers calculated the tech company’s weight based on a methodology known as float-adjusted market capitalization. Put simply, Apple’s true value is not reflected in many indexes. But that’s about to change.

Cisco Systems reportedly plans to fire thousands more of its people in a second round of mass terminations this year. In February, the company dismissed about 4,000 employees. Cisco joins other tech companies in slashing thousands of workers of late. Intel announced plans last week to fire 15,000 people as it contends with sluggish sales. Dell is also terminating  employees as part of a reorganization of its sales teams.

Chuck Robbins, chief executive of Cisco, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January. Photographer: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg

Brazil’s annual inflation accelerated to the upper limit of the target range, dealing another blow to its central bank as it works to contain price pressures spreading throughout Latin America’s biggest economy. Official data released Friday showed prices increased 4.5% in July from a year earlier, just above the 4.47% median estimate from analysts in a Bloomberg survey. 

Royal Bank of Canada’s former chief financial officer is suing for wrongful dismissal, arguing the bank made a “devastating” error when it fired her over a personal relationship with a co-worker—and denying that the two were romantic partners. Nadine Ahn filed the legal action in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice, saying she suffered “palpable reputational harm” and “public humiliation” when the bank fired her in April. She’s asking for nearly C$50 million ($36 million) in pay and damages.

Nadine Ahn Source: Royal Bank of Canada

A VoePass aircraft with 57 passengers and four crew members on board crashed in Brazil, killing everyone on board and leaving flaming wreckage in a residential neighborhood. The airline, which operates a small fleet of planes made by ATR, said the flight was traveling from the state of Parana to Sao Paulo’s Guarulhos International Airport. It crashed in Vinhedo, a city in the interior of the state of Sao Paulo.

To live in Japan is to live with the risk of a devastating earthquake at any time. Usually, people tend to view the threat in the abstract. It’s kind of like thinking about death, Gearoid Reidy writes in Bloomberg Opinion. I know I’ll die someday, but I hope it won’t be today. And so far, at least, I keep getting lucky. Until we don’t. Thursday’s announcement from Japanese authorities warning of an increased risk of a long-feared megaquake forced citizens to consider the very real and immediate danger of an event that would devastate the country.

Cleveland is at risk of losing its longtime  National Football League team over competing visions for a stadium. The Haslam Sports Group—the Cleveland Browns ownership entity of Jimmy and Dee Haslam—have pitched playing in a brand new, $2.4 billion stadium in the nearby suburbs when their lease expires after the 2028 season. Meanwhile, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb says he’s trying to balance the need to keep the Browns in the city with trying to mitigate the costs for taxpayers.

An artists rendering shows a proposed new, domed stadium for the Cleveland Browns. Source: HKS

What you’ll need to know tomorrow

Watch Out for the Travel Warning Signs

The great post-pandemic boom in consumer travel is officially over. With the US economy cooling as the Fed targets a soft landing and the financial cushions many accumulated in the pandemic wearing thin, travelers are reining in post-lockdown wanderlust. While household demand remains healthy, wages aren’t rising as fast anymore and more consumers are struggling to pay off high-interest credit-card balances. Policymakers and markets are now looking for answers to the big question: How long will consumers be able to keep spending?

Travelers wait in line at a security checkpoint at Denver International Airport. Photographer: Bing Guan/Bloomberg

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