The Daily 202: Arizona, Utah results give Stop Trump movement reasons to both hope and despair

Donald Trump speaks at the Trump International Hotel in Washington on Monday. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)

THE BIG IDEA:

Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz both campaigned hard in Arizona, hoping to score upsets over their party’s front-runner in the most populous of the three states that voted Tuesday.

They got crushed. Hillary Clinton beat the Vermont senator by 18 points (58-40) and Donald Trump beat the Texas senator by 22 points (47-25) in the Grand Canyon State.

But in a reflection of how polarized both parties remain at this late stage in the primary calendar, Sanders won caucuses in both Utah and Idaho with close to 80 percent of the vote. And Trump finished third behind John Kasich in neighboring Utah, getting just 14 percent! Cruz, who had the backing of Mitt Romney and capitalized on Mormon loathing for The Donald, pulled almost 70 percent. That gets him all 40 of the state’s delegates.

-- The returns are the continuation of a pattern for both sides.

Sanders is favored to win a few upcoming contests in smaller, whiter states, but Clinton continues to maintain a hard-to-overtake delegate lead. Bernie could conceivably sweep the Alaska, Hawaii and Washington State Democratic caucuses in three days. But despite spending four days in Arizona over the past week and spending heavily on television advertising – touting the endorsement of Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) – Sanders could not make meaningful inroads with Hispanic voters. (Unfortunately, there are no exit polls.) That shows how nearly impossible it will be for him to win mega-states still on the calendar, like New York or California.

Trump continues to dominate the GOP field despite tough press coverage and stepped-up attack ads. Most Republicans say they are embarrassed about how the race is playing out, but he is as strong a favorite to be the nominee this morning as ever.

Both front-runners have big leads, but they’re not getting a lot of love: A Quinnipiac University poll out this morning shows Trump leads Cruz by 15 points among Republicans and Clinton leading Sanders by 12 points Democrats. But they also top the “no way” list – 54 percent of voters overall say they “would definitely not” vote for Trump, and 43 percent say they definitely would not vote for Clinton. (Cruz and Kasich had “no way” rates of 33 percent and 14 percent, respectively.)

Hillary Clinton meets with 19 Washington State Tribal leaders during a roundtable in Puyallup yesterday. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Three reasons the Stop Trump movement should be optimistic—

1. Anti-Trump groups did not really invest in Arizona. But they did in Utah.

2. Even in a state where his anti-illegal immigration message is potent, Trump could not break 50 percent. Because of early voting, candidates who are no longer in the race received 18.2 percent (95,509 votes) in Arizona. And Kasich got 10 percent.

3. Anti-Trump Republicans are really coalescing behind Cruz.

Donald Trump and Jeb Bush talk after the Republican presidential debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library last September. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

-- Jeb Bush endorsed Cruz this morning. “Securing the Bush endorsement is a coup for Cruz, who may not be well-liked by many GOP colleagues in Washington, but can now boast the support of a key political family and its vast, unrivaled donor network,” Ed O’Keefe explains. “The former governor has privately expressed admiration to friends and associates for the senator's commitment to his conservative beliefs despite his frequent clashes with Republican colleagues. In recent weeks, those associates said Bush has determined that Cruz is now the most electable alternative to Trump, an opponent with whom he bitterly clashed.”

Aides say the former Florida governor plans to "actively support" Cruz. From his Facebook post: "For the sake of our party and country, we must move to overcome the divisiveness and vulgarity Donald Trump has brought into the political arena, or we will certainly lose our chance to defeat the Democratic nominee and reverse President Obama’s failed policies," Bush added. "To win, Republicans need to make this election about proposing solutions to the many challenges we face, and I believe that we should vote for Ted as he will do just that."

Another, more self-interested, reason for Jeb to back Cruz: His son. George P. Bush, the 39-year old Texas land commissioner is now considered the Bush family's next best hope to reclaim the White House, but he cannot expect to easily advance in Texas state politics without Cruz's support, Ed notes.

The Club for Growth PAC has also endorsed Cruz, the first time it has ever weighed in during a presidential nominating contest.

Ted Cruz speaks outside Johnny's Half Shell in D.C. yesterday. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Four reasons the Stop Trump movement should be pessimistic—

1. Despite Cruz consolidating anti-Trump support, Trump continues to build up his delegate lead. Arizona was winner-take-all, meaning Trump gets 58 of the 98 delegates that were available yesterday. By the AP’s tally, he now has 739 to Cruz’s 465 and Kasich’s 143.

2. Kasich did not play the role of spoiler that he could have last night, but he might in some upcoming primaries. He’s campaigning today in Wisconsin and could split the vote. That said, Cruz cannot realistically get enough delegates to win the nomination outright at this point. He’d probably need to win it on the convention floor. As Philip Bump writes, “The race now isn't really between Trump and Cruz. It's between Trump and 1,237 — the number of delegates he needs to earn.”

But a fresh CNN/ORC poll shows how hard it will be to deny Trump the nomination in Cleveland if he gets close to 1,237 but does not clinch: Six in 10 Republican said that if no candidate wins a majority of the delegates in the first ballot at the convention, the delegates “should vote for the candidate with the most support in the primaries and caucuses." (Chris Cillizza explains why that matters.)

3. After a quiet stretch, many of the upcoming contests favor Trump demographically. Trump is the current favorite Wisconsin’s April 5 primary, but Cruz is flying in today and will spend three days campaigning. Then the campaign moves back to the Northeast, where voters are less religious and more blue-collar.

4. Trump’s numbers are not as toxic as most D.C. insiders believe. This morning’s Quinnipiac poll has Clinton leading Trump by just 6 points (46-40) and Cruz by 3 points (45-42) in head-to-head match-ups. The Q poll also find that, while 37 percent of Americans think Trump is “very responsible” for violence at his rallies, 39 percent blame his supporters and 22 percent think he is “not at all responsible.”

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

Passengers evacuated from the Brussels airport wait for relatives lost in chaos yesterday. (Photo by Tim Dirven/ For The Washington Post)

THE LATEST FROM BRUSSELS

-- "Authorities captured a suspect linked to the Brussels bloodshed Wednesday as details emerged of the suicide attackers: two brothers who brought chaos and carnage to the city at the heart of European unity," Griff Witte, Souad Mekhennet and Michael Birnbaum report. The identity of the arrested suspect — nor the alleged role in Tuesday’s attacks — was not immediately released. But two the brothers — Khalid and Ibrahim el-Bakraoui, both Belgian nations with criminal records — were identified by authorities as two suicide bombers who attacked the Brussels metro and airport, claiming at least 31 lives and injuring 270 people. The Islamic State claimed responsibility. The pair had connections to Salah Abdeslam, Europe’s most wanted man who helped carry out the bloody siege in Paris last November and who was apprehended last week by Belgian authorities.

-- The day’s violence was the worst attack on Belgian soil since World War II. Six Americans were among the injured, including a member of the U.S. Air Force and his family, and three Mormon missionaries from Utah who are said to be suffering serious injuries.

-- ISIS promised “dark days ahead” for other countries taking part in the anti-ISIS coalition. The group also released photos showing Syrian fighters giving out candy to children to celebrate the attacks.

People flee the Brussels airport after the suicide blast yesterday.

-- Europe is on edge: Officials called off a soccer match against Portugal scheduled for Tuesday in Brussels “because of security concerns.” France’s Toulouse-Blagnac Airport was briefly evacuated a few hours ago. That threat has since been cleared.

-- The death toll could make it harder for the Obama administration to stay the course in Iraq and Syria. The president has opted for a series of low-profile measures instead of large military offensives. "But the attacks in Brussels, like Paris and San Bernardino just months before, highlight the reality that battlefield statistics and calls for restraint mean little in the climate of fear generated by terrorist strikes," Greg Jaffe notes.

-- Secretary of State John Kerry is flying to Russia for urgent talks on Ukraine and Syria. Kerry will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the recent truce in Syria. (AP)

-- The carnage exposed the extent to which Belgium has become a vulnerable Western “hub” for terrorist threats. Greg Miller and Joby Warrick: “Belgium has seen a larger share of its Muslim population leave to fight in Syria than has any other Western country. The Molenbeek capital is a particularly fertile breeding ground for militants, including several involved in the Paris attacks. The country has had at least 470 of its citizens enter Syria since the civil war began -- triple the number of suspected fighters who have attempted to get to Syria from the U.S. And the ratio of Belgian fighters -- 45 for every 1 million citizens — is more than twice that of its neighbor France.” Also cause for alarm: “About 118 of Belgium’s departed fighters are believed to be back in Europe — part of a much broader stream of militants returning from Syria that has unnerved European security services.”

-- “Brussels shows Europe’s shockingly dysfunctional approach to security,” David Ignatius explains: “The European Union needs to reinvent its security system. It needs to break the stovepipes that prevent sharing information, enforcing borders and protecting citizens. In the months before Tuesday’s attacks, ‘the system was blinking red,’ as George Tenet, the former CIA director, famously described the period before Sept. 11, 2001. Yet Belgium (like pre-9/11 America) couldn’t connect the dots.”

-- In a push to tighten airport security after Brussels, Senate Democrats called for requiring tougher vetting of aviation workers and increased funding to secure airport perimeters. They want to tack it onto the must-pass FAA reauthorization bill. (Politico)

People gather at the Brussels city center. (Colin Delfosse/Washington Post)

-- Cruz drew condemnation for calling on law enforcement to “patrol and secure Muslim neighborhoods” after the terror attacks in Brussels. Clinton tweeted that Cruz’s proposal was “beneath us” and while Sanders said singling out a religious group would be “unconstitutional” and “wrong.” (Sean Sullivan and Katie Zezima)

-- WaPo Fact Checker Glenn Kessler says Cruz wildly exaggerated the degree to which the NYPD's hands are tied: “In 2011, the the Demographics Unit in NYPD’s intelligence division was revealed to be covertly monitoring Muslim neighborhoods and watching mosques for the ‘likelihood of them being infiltrated by terrorist groups.’ NYPD mapped out the city into zones based on Census data, and matched undercover officers to blend into ethnic communities. The program was shut down in 2014. But it is inaccurate to say that New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio ‘succumbed to unfounded criticisms,’ or that it ‘eliminated’ the department’s ability to ‘work with’ the Muslim community.'”

-- Trump, meanwhile, suggested that Belgian authorities could have thwarted the attack by torturing Salah Abdeslam, the suspected terrorist who was captured days earlier. “We have to change our laws and we have to be able to fight on an almost equal basis,” Trump said on CNN, arguing in favor of torture and pointing to ISIS' far more brutal treatment of its prisoners.”

-- Security experts slammed Trump’s calls for, among other things, closing the borders: Michael Chertoff, who was the secretary of homeland security in the George W. Bush administration, labeled the candidate’s ideas “preposterous.” During an appearance on MSNBC, terrorism expert Malcolm Nance said Trump’s “bluster” in the wake of Tuesday’s attacks was hampering U.S. intelligence and the armed forces. (Peter Holley and Lindsey Bever)

-- The Post’s Editorial Board says “the horror in Brussels is a rebuke to Trump’s foreign policy”: “To defeat the Islamic State without NATO’s help would impose huge costs on Americans. Britain, France and Germany, among others, contribute materially to the war against the terrorist entity in Iraq and Syria, ‘Why are we always the one that’s leading?’ complained Mr. Trump. The simple answer is that, in the absence of that American commitment, chaos like that seen in Brussels will soon cross even our most fortified borders.”

-- “After Brussels, the West must reject dangerous isolationism,” Post columnist Anne Applebaum writes from London: “The only way to fight jihadism is through our existing military, economic and political alliances. And the only way to ensure that we have international support in the future, when a tragedy takes place on our soil — and it will — is to offer our support for a tragedy unfolding on allied soil right now.

-- Silicon Valley billionaire Vinod Khosla called on Apple to reconsider its refusal to cooperate with the FBI in light of the attacks. “National security is more important than privacy,” he tweeted. (Vanity Fair)

-- Hillary will deliver a speech on counterterrorism at Stanford University today. “Clinton will highlight how now is a time for steady leadership when we must stand in solidarity with our European allies and respond firmly to defeat ISIS,” the campaign says. (11:15 a.m. Pacific/2:15 p.m. Eastern)

GET SMART FAST:​​

President Obama waves after delivering a nationally-televised speech to Cuba's 11 million people in Old Havana. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

OBAMA WRAPS UP CUBA TRIP:

-- Obama spent his last day in Cuba attending an exhibition baseball game, meeting with prominent political dissidents and delivering an impassioned speech for the two countries to end decades of violent and painful separation.

-- POTUS stopped at the U.S. Embassy to meet with 13 of the island's most prominent opposition figures. The group included José Daniel Ferrer and Elizardo Sánchez, who favor normalization in relations, and Antonio Rodiles and Berta Soler, who have said the United States has reached out to Cuba but received nothing in return. Some of the dissidents had been in jail as recently as Monday, including one with cuts on his wrists from tight handcuffs.

-- Obama delivered a speech at the Grand Theater of Havana, with President Raúl Castro and other senior officials on hand, that was broadcast on state television. It was like nothing the people have heard, with Obama making a full-throated plea to end decades of “painful and sometimes violent separation” between countries and calling on Castro to loosen his grip on free speech and political processes in the country. “I have come here to extend the hand of friendship to the Cuban people,” said the president.

-- "Most of the speech was 'vintage Obama,' professing faith in human possibility as well as adding pointed references to Cuban independence hero José Martí," Juliet Eilperin and Karen DeYoung report. "And while the president told Cubans they have nothing to fear from the north, he said he 'must speak honestly' about American beliefs. 'Citizens should be free … to organize and to criticize their government and to protest peacefully without being detained,' he said. 'Voters should be able to choose their governments in free, open elections.' Castro and other officials sat stoically, applauding politely at Obama’s praise for their healthcare system and education and gender equality. Obama did not mention the continuing U.S. occupation of Guantanamo Bay, which Castro yesterday said impeded efforts of normalization."

Obama and Castro caught a baseball game in Havana:

-- For his last event in Cuba, President Obama attended an exhibition baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cuban national team, joined by his family and Castro.

In an interview with ESPN, Obama said the game was about “goodwill,” though he added “we can’t forget there are larger stakes in this.” The president defended his decision to attend the game despite the terror attacks in Belgium. “The whole premise of terrorism is to disrupt people’s lives,” he said. The Rays won 4-1. On his way out, Obama paused to kiss Rachel Robinson, the widow of Jackie Robinson, on the cheek and to chat with former New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, who were among the Americans in attendance.

Sports columnist Thomas Boswell explains says the ballgame really is a watershed moment: "For the first time since I landed in Havana 38 years ago to spend a week in Cuba reporting on its sports, I have fresh hope that the future of the Cuban people may someday improve."

Obama talks to Rachel Robinson, the widow of Jackie Robinson, during a baseball game in Havana. (Reuters/Carlos Barria)

MORE ON THE REPUBLICAN RACE:

— Paul Ryan will deliver a speech critiquing the “State of American Politics.” Paul Kane says the Wisconsin congressman will repudiate the “disheartened” state of the election. Ryan, who told reporters Tuesday he would not “take the bait” on specific questions about presidential politics, is not expected to directly discuss the tone of individual campaigns, after he has repeatedly critiqued the tenor of Trump’s rallies and some of his proposals. Advisers view the speech, which will take place inside his former stomping grounds of the Ways and Means Committee hearing room, as a chance to firmly establish Ryan, 46, as the adult in national Republican politics and to get activists focused on the emerging agenda that the still-new speaker is trying to craft.”

-- Trump’s non-profit admitted to mistakenly donating $25,000 to a Florida political campaign in 2013. In a rare apology, campaign aides said the gift, which violates federal rules prohibiting nonprofits from assisting political candidates, was not made in an attempt to deceive the IRS. (David A. Fahrenthold and Rosalind S. Helderman)

-- Trump won the endorsement of Pennsylvania Rep. Lou Barletta. Barletta, who drew notoriety for his sweeping crackdowns on immigrants as the mayor of Hazleton and pushed for English to be the city’s official language, previously backed Rick Santorum.

-- AIPAC President Lillian Pinkus and four other leaders made an unscheduled appearance during the conference to apologize for and condemn Trump’s speech. “Trump’s speech, which he largely recited from a teleprompter, was actually notable for its low level of invective,” David Weigel notes. But AIPAC, already criticized for giving Trump an invitation, decided the rhetoric needed an unprecedented condemnation. “While we may have policy differences, we deeply respect the office of president of the United States and our president, Barack Obama,” Pinkus said. “There were people in our AIPAC family who were deeply hurt last night, and for that we are deeply sorry. We are disappointed that so many people applauded the sentiment that we neither agree with or condone.”

Other figures from the Jewish community also condemned the enthusiastic reception Trump received: Jane Eisner, the editor in chief of Jewish news source “the Forward,” wrote that she was "ashamed that any of my fellow Jews could applaud" Trump. Chemi Shalev, a Haaretz correspondent, said “The enthusiastic reception given Trump could very well deepen the fault lines inside the Jewish community that were uncovered over the summer" by the Iran deal.

-- The Trump-allied Great America Super PAC is putting nearly $1 million behind a spot, its first, that portrays the GOP front-runner as a “unifier.” (Watch here.)

-- The Narrative: Trump’s NATO comments are just the latest in a growing list of apostasies putting him at odds with Republican ideology that dates back more than half a century. Does that mean his ideas lack intellectual cohesion? Philip Rucker and Dan Balz say they actually just reflect the instincts of a dealmaker – less guided by philosophy than visceral reactions to problems of the moment: “Trump’s candidacy has been described as a hostile takeover of the party. In reality it appears more a movement that threatens to subsume the GOP behind a menu of ideas and instincts that might best be described as ‘America Wins.’” “I am a common-sense conservative,” he told The Post in a telephone interview yesterday, describing his philosophy as “governing through strength, governing through common sense and governing through heart.”

MORE ON THE DEMOCRATIC RACE:

-- Bernie appeared on Jimmy Kimmel's show last night. "Sanders mentioned that one of the differences between him and Clinton is that she has several super PACs working on her behalf," John Wagner relays from Los Angeles. “I know you don’t have a super PAC,” Kimmel said, “but I did get you a fanny pack.” Sanders laughed heartily as the blue and yellow fanny pack with his first name on it was presented. One of the other lighter moments in the broadcast occurred when Kimmel noted Sanders seems like a pretty serious guy. “If you are elected president, will we still have like the Easter egg roll?” Kimmel asked. Sanders started answering before he had finished the question: “Only if all of the children are very, very serious about that roll. No frivolity in my presidency. It’s all no work, no pleasure.”

-- Rolling Stone endorsed Clinton, calling her the “clear and urgent voice that should be president” in an editorial.

-- The FEC has been asked to hear complaints surrounding donations from hard-to-trace “ghost” corporations. From Matea Gold: “Three groups -- End Citizens United PAC, Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center -- filed FEC complaints Tuesday about one of the pop-up companies, Children of Israel LLC. The opaque corporation was incorporated in California last year by a Cupertino real estate agent who listed ‘donations" as Children of Israel's type of business. The limited-liability corporation went on to dole out $400,000 to super PACs supporting Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz. It remains to be seen whether the FEC panel will hear the complaints – but in the meantime, a host of similar mystery donations are cropping up – and backing the campaigns of Clinton, Kasich and Cruz.”

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

— ZIGNAL LABS VISUAL: Sure, she won the Arizona primary, but that's not the Hillary item that had Twitter excited. Wikileaks has published a searchable archive of Clinton's private emails, which is dominating the Twitter chatter about the Democratic front-runner.

The Wikileaks release found its way into the top trending Clinton stories of the day -- those that were circulated the most widely on social media. At number seven, we see a little extra commentary from WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange:

This is worse than middle school student council races: On the day of a major terrorist attack, Trump tweeted — and deleted — an apparent threat involving Cruz’s wife, Heidi. “Wow Sen. Ted Cruz,” it read, “that is some low-level ad you did using a picture [of] Melania in a G.Q. shoot. Be careful or I will spill the beans on your wife.” A few minutes later, he replaced the tweet with this one:

He's referring to this Facebook ad from earlier in the week that was paid for not by Cruz but an anti-Trump group led by Liz Mair:

This is how Cruz responded:

"It's not clear what 'beans' there are to spill on Cruz’s wife," Philip Bump writes. "Her struggle with depression (and one acute episode in particular) have been previously reported. Trump consistently brags about having done no polling, and it’s not clear that his team has done basic opposition research, so the odds are decent that the apparent threat may be nothing more than something Trump heard."

This cartoon from Le Monde quickly became a symbol of resilience for Europeans after Brussels:

Here's a statement from Keith Ellison, one of Congress's Muslim members, about the attacks:

Trump seized the opportunity to speak on two morning news shows Tuesday about Brussels:

Media figures were not happy with the attention given to Trump:

Eventually, Clinton also called in to TODAY:

Some conservatives were upset by Obama's brevity on Brussels:

The optics of the day were not always great:

Here's what Trump said:

More photos from lawmakers in Cuba:

Lots of jokes about Palin's new television project:

The scaffolding is coming down around the Capitol dome:

Merrick Garland met with Chuck Schumer:

Paul Ryan welcomed Indy 500 champion Ryan Hunter-Reay to Capitol Hill:

Debbie Dingell welcomed the original Rosie the Riveters to D.C.:

Cruz's campaign manager ripped into Kasich:

Nikki Haley trolled a South Carolina state legislator on Facebook:

Finally, check out this recent sunrise over the Potomac:

DAYBOOK:

On the campaign trail: Sanders's events in Wyoming were canceled due to weather. Here's what the rest of the field is up to:

At the White House: President Obama is in Argentina, where he'll hold a bilateral meeting with President Mauricio Macri, meet with staff at the U.S. embassy, hold a town-hall and attend a state dinner. Vice President Biden meets with President Atifete Jahjaga of Kosovo at the White House and speaks at the End Violence Against Women International conference.

On Capitol Hill: The House meets at 9 a.m. for legislative business, and will vote on the SMARTER Act and a resolution condemning the Brussels attacks. The Senate is on recess.

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- Beautiful sunny temps today! The Capital Weather Gang forecasts: “High pressure to our south and a mild flow from the southwest is a sure-fire setup to send morning temperatures into and through the 50s, and afternoon highs to near 70 to the low 70s, under partly sunny skies. Even with the potential for some clouds this morning, gotta give this one Nice Day status.”

-- Commuters, beware: next week’s National Security Summit will shut down portions of the New York Avenue corridor and the Mount Vernon Square Metro station for two days. (Luz Lazo)

-- Big picture: A new report that analyzed GPS data finds that the D.C. metro area has the eighth worst traffic in the nation. (Ashley Halsey III)

-- Mayor Muriel E. Bowser delivered her “State of the District” address, calling to increase the minimum wage to $15 by 2020 and defending her plan for a network of homeless shelters. (Aaron C. Davis)

-- The Capitals beat the Ottowa Senators 4-2.

-- On April 30, Dupont Underground is unveiling a new installation made with those 650,000 translucent plastic balls from last summer’s National Building Museum exhibition. (Emily Codik)

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

Funny or Die, working with the Center for American Progress, makes fun of parents who are freaked out about Common Core. Watch the 2-minute video here.

Crying Tintin became a symbol of grief after the Brussels attacks:

Here's how the world reacted to the violence:

The NYPD commissioner said Cruz was out of line with his comment about a program targeting Muslim neighborhoods:

Here's a tribute to the late Toronto mayor Rob Ford, who died of cancer yesterday:

Finally, watch five newborn cheetah cubs hang out with a dog at the Cincinnati Zoo: