If the term weren't already taken (twice!), you could call it the Minnesota Miracle. After being expected by almost everyone to lose one of its eight seats in Congress as part of the Census's decennial reapportionment, Minnesota held on to all eight seats — by the skin of its teeth.
Minnesota got the 435th and final seat in Congress. If New York, which was in position 436, had counted 89 more people, then that last seat would have gone to New York instead. Or, even more closely, based on the Census's complex formula, if Minnesota had counted 26 fewer people it also would have lost its seat. [Read more]
A margin of fewer than 100 people in a population of millions is minuscule. It's the smallest such margin ever recovered, beating the 231-person margin in 1970.
With a margin that small, any number of factors could explain how Minnesota held on. Perhaps it was just pure randomness — a handful of people in New York didn't return their Census, while a few extra Minnesotans did. Perhaps Minnesota's best-in-country response rate to the Census gave it an edge — fewer people that Census workers had to track down. If the Census had continued past October 15, as a lawsuit rejected by the U.S. Supreme Court wanted, maybe more New Yorkers would have been found and counted.
Or there's the most morbid possible answer: COVID-19. See, though people fill out their Census forms over a period of months, the count is supposed to represent each state's population on April 1, 2020. If you die on April 2, you're supposed to still be counted; if you die on March 31, you're not.
What was happening in March 2020? New York was undergoing the country's first big COVID-19 wave, with 447 reported COVID-19 deaths. Minnesota's own wave wouldn't crest for another month; on April 1 it had reported just 17 deaths. That's more than four times the 89-person margin. Did Minnesota keep its 8th District because of the timing of the pandemic?
We'll see if it holds up. New York might sue to overturn the Census results and try to prevent it from losing a seat at Minnesota's expense. [Read more from New York Now's Dan Clark]
There's a robust history of states suing to overturn unfavorable Census counts, including Utah's lawsuit in 2001, claiming the Census's exclusion of overseas missionaries cost it a seat in Congress. Utah lost. [Read more from The Associated Press's Mike Schneider]
All of this has happened before: After the 2010 Census, Minnesota also got the 435th and final seat in Congress, though then our margin was thousands of people rather than 89.
Political implications: Redistricting will still be a fierce fight that'll probably end up settled by the courts, but the battle ahead is nothing like what would have happened if Minnesota had to collapse down into seven districts. That outcome would have probably led to at least one and maybe more incumbent-vs.-incumbent election.
Historical context: The 1890 Census prompted a fierce struggle, not between Minnesota and New York, but between Minneapolis and St. Paul. The co-called "Census War" involved fraud, arrests, threats at gunpoint, and ultimately a Census Bureau-ordered recount. [Read more from Jack El-hai at American Heritage]
Back in the Legislature: A bill spending nearly $8 million for security expenses related to the Derek Chauvin murder trial passed both chambers of the Legislature and is headed to Gov. Tim Walz, who will sign it. The bill passed despite opposition from some Democrats — it passed 107-25 in the House, with all 25 in opposition being Democrats. There was little public debate, but the vote followed a very long closed DFL caucus meeting. Many urban DFL lawmakers in particular have criticized police tactics used in the Twin Cities over the past month. [ Read more from Brian Bakst]
In what has become a sort of running joke, the Department of Homeland Security again delayed the implementation of its requirement that only driver licenses compliant with the REAL ID act's security measures will suffice to pass through airport security or enter federal facilities. Millions of Americans have non-compliant IDs, and the department has repeatedly pushed back the deadline. The new deadline is May 3, 2023, and this time they double-dog swear it'll stick. [Read more]
The U.S. Supreme Court is taking up its first gun rights case in a decade, a legal challenge to New York's restrictive gun-permit law. The decision could mean the court's 6-3 conservative majority might soon expand gun rights further. [Read more from NPR's Scott Neuman]
U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, released a video in which he encouraged people to get a COVID-19 vaccine. Marshall, an obstetrician, dressed in a white lab coat and stethoscope for the video. This wasn't a coincidence — Marshall later told a reporter he had consulted with Republican pollster Frank Luntz for advice on the best way to persuade vaccine-hesitant voters. "What we've found is if we put on our white coat, it literally moves the needle," Marshall said. [ Read more from HuffPost's Igor Bobic]
Something completely different: A lot of us had the embarrassing realization in recent months that vaccine maker "Moderna" is actually a portmanteau of "Modern RNA." If you enjoy that sort of thing, check out this Wikipedia page on company name etymologies. Toy and game giant Hasbro was founded by the Hassenfeld Brothers; carmaker Nissan was Nippon Sangyo ("Japan Industries"); Taco Bell was founded by a guy named Glen Bell; fast food joint Arby's came from "R.B.," the initials of "Raffell Brothers," its founders. [ Read more]
Listen: Some of you might know I have an interest in 19th Century French history, and produce a history podcast, The Siècle, in my spare time. Perhaps that's why today I had a sudden burst of obsession with the Mark Knopfler tune "Done With Bonaparte," the lament of a war-weary Napoleonic soldier straggling back home after participating in the disastrous invasion of Russia. [ Watch live with Knopfler and Emmylou Harris]
