Hello and welcome to our new subscribers from Europod, Climate Group, Swiss Finance Council and others. Financial market analysts who read the flurry of headlines about France’s borrowing costs briefly surpassing Greece’s earlier this week may have been reminded of the famous opening to Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities. “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” France, whose government could collapse next week if conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier fails to garner sufficient parliamentary support for his draconian budget, is experiencing one of the worst political crises in its modern history. Greece, on the other hand, is enjoying a period of relative stability – certainly, it is experiencing better times than when it was at the epicentre of the eurozone crisis a decade ago. Despite the moment’s undoubted symbolic significance, the implication of such reports – France could become the next Greece! – remains manifestly implausible. For one thing, French borrowing costs have a long way to go to even come close to where Greece’s were over the previous decade. Yields on France’s and Greece’s 10-year bonds are currently hovering just under 3% – well below the peak of 36% reached by Athens in 2012. For another, such comparisons ignore vast dissimilarities between the two cases. Greece, after all, was a country plagued by corruption and weak institutions, which was at the total mercy of politicians and banks in Berlin, Brussels, Frankfurt and Paris. (In many ways, it still is.) France, on the other hand, has a diversified economy, strong institutions, and a president who, although weakened, is in no way beholden to the EU. (Indeed, he still purports to lead it.) Moreover, it is still perfectly conceivable that Barnier’s budget will pass. On Thursday, the former EU commissioner scrapped plans to increase taxes on electricity – a core demand of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National, which holds just under a third of the seats in the country’s National Assembly. |