Blame the movie industry. If you stop making adult films adults fall out of the habit of attending them.
Yes, Hollywood is now for cartoon superheroes. Comedies are too risky, these conglomerates want a guaranteed return. They're risk averse. Never in the history of the film business has it been less about art.
As for risk-taking, that's all on the flat screen. Which has increased in quality to the point where it's a better experience for most people. You're alone, without the riff-raff talking on their phones, there is no garbage at your feet, the image is pristine on the screen AND THE MOVIE STARTS WHEN YOU WANT IT TO! Never mind being able to pause at will.
We live in an on demand economy. Everything is delivered when you want it. People are acquiring fewer possessions. Kids don't have driver's licenses and their parents are happy that their immature bodies are being ferried by Uber. The world changes, Hollywood has not.
Yes, in hindsight those studios that delivered their pix to streaming services day and date are the futurists here, the winners. Forget all the bitching from agencies and talent. First and foremost, scripted entertainment is an ever-decreasing percentage of major talent agencies' revenue and profitability. They saw the handwriting on the wall, they diversified, but when it comes to movie distribution everything remains the same? Meanwhile, Netflix lays beaucoup bucks at the feet of talent, with little interference, that's the future, and if you want an ongoing percentage negotiate with them, not the moribund movie studios. It'd be like the music business insisting everybody go back to CDs. The economics changed, because of technology and the public's desires. The way out was to embrace the future, i.e. Spotify, with its ultimate benefit of endless payment for streamed tracks, the catalog is more valuable than ever before!
So Spielberg is an unknown quantity amongst Generation Z, and amongst a lot of Millennials too. "Jaws" was 46 years ago. "E.T." 39. And "Jurassic Park" is now a franchise that is not associated with him. Those are Spielberg's greatest hits, and they're in the past, but to the aged titans in the film industry he's a god. That'd be like saying young people love Bad Company and Boston. Sure, there's an audience, OF AGED PEOPLE!
But Bad Company and Boston weren't remakes. Imagine a cover album of their tunes today, dead in the water. We see this with tribute albums, they almost universally fail. Doesn't matter how good they are, people want the original.
So... If you want to promote a film today you don't do it via reviews. The positive reviews for "West Side Story" were an insider circle jerk. An hermetically sealed system that didn't reach anybody under the age of forty, and didn't reach many above that age either.
The promotion should have started on TikTok, forget the critics. The active audience is on TikTok, and TikTok is about dancing, just like "West Side Story"! Youngsters are active, oldsters are passive. To get an oldster off the couch is nearly impossible. An oldster will question the ticket price when a youngster doesn't think twice, if they want it they do it. So to succeed, "West Side Story" needed to appeal to the younger generation, and on its surface it did not.
All we saw were stories about Rita Moreno. But the last time she's been in the public eye was "Oz," about twenty years ago. However talented she might be, kids don't know her and don't care. But they could have been sold.
And don't tell me there's no market for movie musicals. What about "High School Musical"? If you build it they probably won't come, if you market it to them there's a good chance they will.
If you're marketing to adults you've got to make it easy. You've got to make it a value proposition. They move slowly and wait for word of mouth. And by time word of mouth gains traction for a movie, the film has left the theatre. The movie business no longer moves at the speed of adults, it's much faster. Boomers remember when films played for six months. Started in theatres in New York and L.A. and then platformed out across the country over weeks. Today they open in thousands of theatres, make most of their money up front and then disappear, to the flat screen. And that's so fast that unless you're truly passionate, you can wait for the appearance on the flat screen. And you don't want to pay an on demand fee, it must be baked into a service you're already paying for.
You can rail against the rules, the law, the future, but no one has ever won proceeding on that basis. You can only win by embracing not only the present, but getting ahead of the public. Putting features on streaming services got people in the habit of seeing their films there. To build the service you needed more films. I signed up to see "Hamilton," with my free account from Verizon for Disney+, but when that was over I was done, there was no further product appealing to me. Disney is a youth company. The era when Michael Eisner took over and they created Touchstone and made "Down and Out in Beverly Hills" is long gone.
Steven Spielberg doing an updated, improved version of "West Side Story"... I ask you, WHO IS WAITING FOR THAT? Spielberg is about action, not gravitas. He's got no history with music, he's not Bob Fosse. And despite "Schindler's List" he's got little reputation for highbrow. He's not in the wheelhouse of the aged cognoscenti who go to foreign films in theatres to feel better about themselves, to brag, wearing their attendance as a badge of honor. As a matter of fact, the revered makers of adult films are almost all gone. The hero directors of today...Michael Bay? Christopher Nolan?
"Licorice Pizza" would be culture shifting if it were on HBO, with its imprimatur and hype. Opening in a couple of theatres over the holiday, it's a minor experience, only elite insiders care. Hell, Netflix did a much better job of hyping "Power of the Dog," a much more difficult viewing experience, and more people will end up watching it than would have ever seen it on the big screen, and when awards season hits, and it starts just about now, "Power of the Dog" is just a click away, you can make an instant decision, get instant satisfaction, and if you don't like it, you can immediately turn it off and not feel ripped off.
It's not like boomers are not invested in higher brow, non-superhero entertainment. Look at "Succession"! This stuff used to be films. Albeit much shorter. "Succession" is better at an extended length.
As for all this hogwash about the theatre experience... It sucks. As for the big screen, it's like the recording industry talking about the quality of CDs. And now you can stream at CD quality, EVEN BETTER! But people chose convenience over quality. Isn't this Clayton Christensen 101? The newbie starts cheap and inferior but good enough, gains traction, gets better and kills the old institution.
As for budgets... Talk to record labels about recording budgets. They're a fraction of what they what once were. Sure, it's great to be able to spend half a million dollars in an A-level studio creating your opus, but the economics changed and that paradigm has evaporated. As for the youngsters dominating the charts, they have no experience with that era, AND THEY DON'T CARE! They make records in their bedrooms and they top the charts. Everybody's happy except those who can't get over the fact their cheese has been moved.
The failure of "West Side Story" should not come as a surprise to the film world. They created the atmosphere where it was doomed. You stop servicing an audience and you expect them to show up on demand, based on brand name? Brand name actors mean less at the box office than ever before. And when it comes to directors, the only one who gains adult notice is Quentin Tarantino, because he always twists the format, delivers something different, unique. As for Scorsese, another insider lauded by the oldsters, he's a TV director now. And he'd better make better films if he wants youngsters to pay attention, "The Irishman" was a slog, assuming you could get through it.
Yes, today it's less about image than story, which is what the flat screen has delivered. And isn't the essence story? Story has taken a back seat too long in Hollywood, but on TV it's up front and center, where it always must be to ensure a warm reception by the public.
Things changed. It was happening before the pandemic, Covid just accelerated it, put a stake in the heart of the old game. Accept it.
--
Visit the archive: lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, Unsubscribe
To change your email address this link
