| | | | Monday, February 5, 2024 | | I don't think I'm ready to call Walker Buehler a "bust" just yet, but he's definitely not a priority target for me in drafts right now. Buehler almost certainly won't be in the Dodgers' Opening Day rotation, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters this weekend about Buehler that, "I think it's very safe to say it's going to be a late start to the season." | | Now, I want to be clear: This isn't a reason to panic for Buehler. He's coming back from a second Tommy John surgery (as well as a flexor tendon repair in the same elbow), and the Dodgers are, as far as we know, playing the long game with Buehler's recovery. We've already seen that in how they handled him at the end of last season, when he was shut down after one rehab assignment rather than trying to rush back for the playoffs. The Dodgers have their eyes on overcoming their recent playoff woes, and having a healthy Buehler for October is a lot more important than having him available for the start of the season. | | That makes sense, and it's worth noting that the Dodgers' Opening Day is about a week ahead of everyone else's, since they're playing a two-game series against the Padres on March 20. So, maybe Buehler will be a few weeks behind his teammates without actually missing much time at all. The Dodgers are going to have to find some way to limit Buehler's innings anyway, and it might be easier to simply limit him early on than trying to find ways to limit him throughout the season. | | | | We saw something similar in 2019, when Buehler wasn't fully stretched out to start the season and didn't read the 90-pitch mark in a start until April 17. Despite being limited (and struggling as a result of it) early on, he still ended up with a 3.26 ERA over 182.1 innings, finishing as the No. 12 SP. I'll take the under on Buehler reaching 182.1 innings this season, but even if he only throws 140, those should be some pretty high quality innings, and Buehler's price is already starting to fall to reflect that, as his ADP is down to 154.0 in NFBC drafts since Feb. 1. At that price, I can't really call Buehler a "bust." It's almost all upside at that point. | | But it's not all upside. That same range as Buehler features names like Carlos Rodon, Bailey Ober, Mitch Keller, and Nick Pivetta, all of whom feature plenty of upside of their own you might be passing on to pick Buehler. And, while he could return ace-level production once he's fully cleared, that's not a guarantee coming off this injury; and, given Buehler's history, health will remain a significant question mark moving forward. | | He doesn't crack my busts list at this point, but I definitely considered Buehler before this most recent news, when he was going off the board more in the SP30 range. And, if Buehler ends up getting pushed back up boards like that, I'll definitely have to reconsider it. | | The rest of today's newsletter is all about busts, if you haven't picked up on that. Tomorrow, we'll begin our position preview series with Scott White, Frank Stampfl, and my thoughts on the catcher position. But for today, we're focusing on the biggest risks in your 2024 drafts that we're trying to avoid. | | | | My Busts | | | | Head here for my full list of bust picks. Here's a sample: | | Cody Bellinger, 1B, FA | | Bellinger is one of the toughest players to figure out how to value for 2024, and the fact that he's still unsigned in mid-January suggests the smart people running MLB teams are also having a tough time figuring out who he is. On the surface, 2023 was a resurgent campaign, as his .881 OPS was his best since his MVP 2019 season. But a quick look under the hood reveals dramatically diminished quality of contact metrics that call his bounce-back into question. The gap between his expected wOBA (.327) and his actual mark (.370) was .043, the fifth-highest mark among all qualifiers last season, and calls into question whether what he did was at all sustainable. On the plus side of the ledger, Bellinger did showcase career-best plate discipline, and a 43.2% pull rate helped him maximize his otherwise middling quality of contact. But the problem with just assuming that means what he did last season was sustainable is that his strikeout rate in his MVP season was less than a percentage point higher than it was in 2023, while he pulled the ball even more often that season and he actually managed to underperform his underlying metrics; the same was true in his disappointing 2020. None of that means he can't repeat his 2023, but when the cost is a top-60 pick, it's just not a bet I'm willing to make. | | | | Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds | | I swear, I'm not intentionally trying to draw the ire of the Queen City here. I'm sure Skyline Chili is fine! And, at some point this preseason, I'm going to put together my "All-FOMO" team, a list of players I need to make sure I have on at least one of the dozen or so teams I draft this season, and De La Cruz is absolutely going to be on it. The fully-realized version of De La Cruz is one of the few players who could conceivably give the fully-realized version of Ronald Acuña we saw last season a run for his money. If you're playing in multiple leagues, the wide range of possible outcomes makes De La Cruz worth the risk … but if you're only playing in one league, spending your precious second-rounder on a guy with flaws as glaring as De La Cruz's is awfully tough to justify. De La Cruz makes a ton of damage when he makes contact, but he's a free swinger and has significant holes in his swing, leading to a massive 33.7% strikeout rate. But the bigger concern here might be that, while De La Cruz is, ostensibly, a switch-hitter, he was brutal from the right side of the plate, hitting .184/.231/.263 with a 40% strikeout rate against lefties last season. He's going to steal enough bases to have value even if his struggles continue, and his defense should insulate him from playing time risks … but the floor here is "he got sent back to the minors in May." There may not be a player with a wider range of realistic outcomes in the game right now. | | Blake Snell, SP, FA | | I've had a pretty simple process when figuring out how to approach Snell that has worked out pretty well: When his price is high, I avoid him, and when his price is low, I buy. We're eight years into Snell's career at this point, we should know who he is: An occasionally brilliant pitcher who is maddeningly inconsistent. There were serious discussions about whether Snell was droppable in Fantasy early last season, when he had a 5.40 ERA through his first nine starts; then he ripped off a 1.20 ERA through his final 23 starts that led to his second Cy Young award. "But maybe he's finally figured it out," you might be saying. And I will just remind you that he finished the previous season with a 2.19 ERA in his final 14 starts before going directly into that abysmal nine-start stretch to open 2023. So, I'm just going to avoid him now that his price is high. It's worked out really, really well for me so far. | | Scott White's Busts | | Head here for Scott's full list of busts. | | Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals | | Part of me thinks Goldschmidt isn't worth mentioning here because the early ADP is more than reasonable for an early-round mainstay who's just a year removed from winning NL MVP and was batting .285 with an .850 OPS as late as July 26. In fact, I might even rank him higher than his ADP. Gee, I'm making a pretty good case for drafting him, aren't I? Well, here's where I'll remind you that my goal here is less about identifying draft inefficiencies and more about flagging potential land mines. And while there's still a good chance he'll be perfectly fine, I have an inkling Goldschmidt is about to blow up -- like, in a bad way. | | Ha-Seong Kim, 2B/3B/SS, Padres | | At this time a year ago, Kim was known mostly as the defensive standout responsible for bumping Jake Cronenworth to first base and, in a less direct way, Fernando Tatis to the outfield. But he had turned himself into an instrumental Fantasy player by season's end, mostly by way of his new stolen base prowess. That has as much to do with the stolen base environment improving (through limited pickoff attempts, bigger bases, etc.) as anything, which means it may be here to stay. But even so, he's unlikely to improve upon the 38 steals he had last year. | | And that's basically my entire objection to Kim for 2024. It just seems like he did everything as well as he could possibly do it in 2023. A clearer example of this is his power hitting. His 17 homers represent a nice, healthy total, particularly for a base-stealer, but he didn't impact the ball in a way that would suggest 17-homer power. His max exit velocity was only 39th percentile. His average exit velocity was only 7th percentile. And his hard-hit rate? Well, that was 3rd percentile. We're nearly at the bottom of the barrel. Granted, the shape of the contact also makes a difference. Kim elevated well to his pull side and may be able to repeat the feat. But that's working in opposition to his batting average, which Statcast suggests should have been .245 rather than his actual .260 mark. | | Joe Ryan, SP, Twins | | My approach to starting pitching this year (at least in 5x5 categories leagues) is to sell out for strikeouts, believing that blowup starts have become too common to put much stock in ERA and WHIP. But as with any sweeping changes to my approach, it's more of a guideline than a rule, and for someone like Ryan, I think the ERA risk is too great to pursue the 11.0 K/9. I say this not just because he had a 4.51 ERA last year, but because I think all of it, the strikeouts included, could get even worse. | | In short, the jig is up. Ryan was never a hard thrower. He never featured much of a secondary arsenal. What made him so effective -- both in the majors and especially the minors -- was the shape of his fastball. Its low release height gave it the optimal vertical approach angle to dominate at the top of the zone, which was very much on trend with current best pitching practices. It's so on trend, in fact, that hitters have begun to adjust. "The worm is turning in the battle for the top of the zone," Eno Sarris wrote for The Athletic in October. What was once considered good ride for a fastball, he points out, yielded a .355 wOBA in 2023, up from .304 just a year earlier. | | Frank Stampfl's Busts | | Head here for Frank's full list of busts. | | Alexis Diaz, RP, Reds | | Let me start by saying almost all closers have bottom-out potential. Alexis Diaz is no different. Diaz was great in his first full season as the Reds closer, racking up 37 saves to go along with a 3.07 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. As we dig a little deeper, however, the concerns start to mount. While Diaz racks up the strikeouts, control is an issue. Among qualified relievers, his 12.6% walk rate was the 15th highest. As a result, he posted just a 17.5% K-BB rate, tied for 66th. Diaz's fastball velocity also took a step back last season, going from 95.7 MPH in 2022 to 94.5 MPH in 2023. While it could bounce back, that's a pretty big drop year-over-year. | | Diaz faded pretty hard, too. In the second half, he posted a 4.61 ERA and a 13.8% walk rate. The second-half ERA was supported by a 5.27 FIP and a 5.78 xFIP, which are both pretty rough. It's entirely possible that the Reds overworked Diaz down the stretch, which would explain his second-half swoon. But what if he picks up where he left off? What if the walks become untenable? The Reds are looking to compete in 2024 and signed Emilio Pagan, a reliever who does have closing experience. There's already enough risk with closers that I'll be fading Diaz inside the Top-75 picks. | | Anthony Rendon, SS, Yankees | | I know what you're thinking. "Frank, what do you have against young players!?" It's just cost vs. downside. Plus, spoiler alert but there are more young players to come. Anyway, Anthony Volpe had a fine rookie season! He was one of just 19 hitters to go 20-20 plus he won a gold glove as a rookie. The problem is his batting average. Volpe hit just .209 last year, the third-lowest among qualified hitters. His .666 OPS ranked sixth-lowest. I'm not sure I see the batting average improving that much, either. | | Volpe struck out nearly 28% of the time last season and, according to Statcast, his expected batting average was just .229. I'm a Yankees fan. I watch a lot of Yankees games. Volpe has a pretty big uppercut in his swing. I think he'd be better off leveling the swing and taking more of a line-drive approach. While it might hinder his power production, it would help his ability to get on base. Lastly, Volpe stopped running as often. He had 13 steals over his first 41 games. From May 14 on, he swiped just 11 bags over his final 118 games. Volpe's 134.8 ADP isn't too prohibitive but I have serious concerns about the batting average, the steals slowing down and, as a result, his floor in Fantasy. | | CJ Abrams, SS, Nationals | | Like Elly De La Cruz, C.J. Abrams is a former top prospect who offers a unique skill set. Abrams finished 2023 with 18 home runs and 47 steals. He went bonkers after he was moved to the leadoff spot in July. Over Abrams' final 73 games, he hit .256 with 11 home runs and 36 steals. That's a 22-homer, 73-steal pace over 150 games. There are maybe a handful of players that could provide a ceiling like that for Fantasy. What worries me are his splits and batted ball data. | | Abrams has 261 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching. He's batting just .163 with a .466 OPS in said plate appearances. I'm not sure the Nationals will ever bench Abrams against lefties because they just don't have enough talent but is there a chance he moves down in the lineup against them? I think so. Plus, Abrams playing against lefties is actively hurting his numbers and, thus, your Fantasy team. As for the batted ball data, Abrams does not hit the ball hard at all. His 87.4 MPH average exit velocity ranked in the 16th percentile. On top of that, he also hits a lot of pop ups. His 14.2% infield fly ball rate led all qualified shortstops. Again, those are automatic outs, which put a ceiling on a player's batting average. Because of the team he plays on, I don't think Abrams will bottom out but I do think there is major potential for him to disappoint with an ADP of 38.5. | | | | | | | | CBS Sports HQ Super Bowl Coverage | | Fantasy Football Today Dynasty | Stream wall-to-wall coverage with our CBS Sports HQ team of hosts, insiders & analysts as they tackle the biggest storylines, interview the game's brightest stars, and keep you up to date with the latest betting odds and much more leading up to the best Sunday of the year.
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