Happy Groundhog Day!

Yes, this still really happens: In Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, famous groundhog Punxsutawney Phil comes out of his burrow or whatever it is and either sees or doesn’t see his shadow, portending a short (in the former case) or long (in the latter) winter. As I type these words at 7:20 a.m., I’m livestreaming the exciting event on the website of Altoona’s WTAJ-TV (I have no idea if that link will still work when you’re reading this). It looks just like the movie: Roughly 20 or so men in top hats and tails arrayed across the stage, and a massive crowd. Kind of heartwarming, in its way. I think I even spotted Ned Ryerson in the crowd, peddling life insurance to some poor soul. Word came around 8 a.m.: six more weeks of winter. Kinda dog bites man.

Back to reality. There’s an interesting report (paywalled) in today’s Financial Times about the growth and modernization of Russia’s military over the past decade. After a disastrous bit of adventurism in Georgia in 2008, Russia spent a lot of money building up forces and weapons and offering better pay and even, believe it or not, eliminating bloat, which doesn’t happen often in this world with respect to militaries. The army now has 900,000 soldiers (to Ukraine’s 261,000) and 544 attack helicopters to Ukraine’s 34.

Meanwhile, The Washington Post reports that Vladimir Putin’s moves have served chiefly to unite the NATO alliance. I guess this is supposed to be reassuring, but it seems to imply that NATO is getting ready to rumble, which is pretty much the most nonreassuring thought in the world. 

The New York Times popped another big story Tuesday night on the insurrection front—that the January 6 committee is looking into Donald Trump’s involvement in efforts to impound voting machines. Details are fuzzy, but the committee recently received a “document containing presidential findings concerning the security of the 2020 election after it occurred and ordering various actions.” Quick upshot: People around Trump are turning over documents, maybe a lot of documents. 

Let’s shift to Capitol Hill: New Mexico Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján had a stroke Tuesday. We wish him the best, obviously, and a full recovery is expected. For now, this leaves Chuck Schumer with 49 Democrats. Goodbye modified Build Back Better. And maybe—not certainly, but maybe—goodbye new Supreme Court justice. He is not on the Judiciary Committee, but unless the nominee wins support of at least one Republican, there can be no vote until Luján returns as the fiftieth vote. Something tells me that Mitch McConnell is explaining all this to Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and Mitt Romney.

On the Covid front: The Times has a depressing report on how the death rate in the United States is far higher than in other similar nations. The reason is the Occam’s razor one: We have fewer people fully vaxxed. That’s largely because we have sinister figures like the presumably vaccinated (it’s company policy) Fox News hosts egging on people like Washington state trooper Robert LeMay, whom the network promoted as an anti-vax hero and who just died of Covid. Some sharp-eyed future historian chronicling the collapse of civic virtue in this republic will certainly highlight this Fox-LeMay story, which awaits its Gibbon. 

Meanwhile, a few numbers. Just 64 percent of Americans are fully vaxxed, and 75 percent have submitted to one dose, which ranks us forty-seventh in the world, according to this Times chart. So senseless and unnecessary.

At NewRepublic.com today, Kate Aronoff reports on Republican and fossil fuel–backed opposition to the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin to a high-ranking position at the Federal Reserve (yes, she is married to this guy). Daniel Strauss digs into the vitally important—and potentially rancorous—Democratic primary for the Pennsylvania Senate seat. And Tim Noah explains why Republicans are loaded for bear to oppose another Biden nominee—this time, over the idea (God forbid) that more middle-class workers should earn overtime pay.

Finally, a housekeeping note: After this week, we’re not going to be producing this daily newsletter. You will still receive a daily email from TNR highlighting our stories for the day, but I’m switching to writing a weekly newsletter that will go out every Friday, starting February 11. Tim Noah will write tomorrow’s newsletter, and Friday’s is TBD. We thank you for reading, and I hope you’ll check out my weekly newsletter once it starts.

Solidarity,

Every day, our journalists are exposing the right’s assaults on our democracy—and pushing the Democrats to go bold to preserve the republic. Here’s a special offer from The New Republic so you won’t miss their scoops and sharp analysis.

Yesterday’s politics question: In a Daily Caller interview, Madison Cawthorn said that a certain high-profile public official “deserves to spend five years in jail” for lying to Congress. To whom was he referring? 

Answer: Anthony Fauci. Let that register. Cawthorn wants to send Anthony Fauci to prison.

Today’s geopolitics question: I noted above that Russia has about 900,000 soldiers under arms. As nearly as you can, rank the world’s 10 largest armies. Some hints: The first one is easy (and is not the United States). The second one is a bit of a surprise. The fourth one is a tragedy, given the condition of this nation’s people. And most of the 10 stand to reason if you give thought to the world’s hottest regional rivalries.