Tomorrow’s presidential election will have far-reaching economic consequences, ranging from how Americans are taxed to how the country trades with the rest of the globe. Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump present starkly different policy visions that will also shape the flow of immigrants into the labor market and the make-up of the energy supply that powers industry. Their differences will influence the prices consumers pay for everyday goods and the borrowing costs households and businesses face on debts. Both candidates have been warning that a victory by their opponent could lead to catastrophe, albeit in a nation where—at least with the economy—everything seems to be fine. Unemployment is hovering near half-century lows, inflation has largely returned to pre-pandemic norms and the Federal Reserve seems to have achieved a soft landing. Here’s a closer look at five of the most significant economic impacts of the election outcome. —David E. Rovella & Natasha Solo-Lyons

Hedge funds’ record bet on US Treasuries is facing fresh scrutiny as the world’s most powerful financial watchdog scrutinizes the money-spinning trade. After running into difficulties with a mammoth project launched last year to gather data on the sprawling shadow banking system, the Financial Stability Board is now said to be discussing focusing on a handful of priority areas, including so-called basis trades. The potential probe comes as wagers on one of the trades, which see some of the world’s biggest hedge funds try to profit from the tiny price gaps between Treasuries and derivatives known as futures, hit $1.15 trillion recently.

Shares of nursing home operator PACS Group Inc. tumbled as much as 33% on Monday after Hindenburg Research released a short report alleging that the company has been—among other things— “systematically scamming taxpayers.” The drop was the worst day ever for the stock, which made its debut as a public company in April of this year. 

China’s top legislative body reviewed a proposal to transfer some off-balance-sheet debt of local governments to their official accounts, aiming to ease their financial burden in a move foreshadowed by officials. The National People’s Congress Standing Committee held a meeting on Monday morning, when it discussed a plan to lift local governments’ debt ceiling to swap out their hidden debt, according to state media. Bloomberg News reported previously that China was considering allowing local authorities to issue as much as 6 trillion yuan in bonds through 2027 to refinance their hidden debt. 

European and US intelligence officials believe Russia is behind a plan that would ultimately place incendiary devices on planes to North America through air cargo shipments, according to people familiar with the matter. Authorities are taking the incidents seriously, and intelligence agencies expect Moscow to try to stage similar acts of sabotage in the future, one of the people said. They asked not to be named discussing the intelligence matter.

Back in the early days of summer, a lifetime ago in a helter-skelter presidential-election campaign, it was the Trump cups that were flying off the shelves at the Monogram Shop in the Hamptons. But since President Joe Biden quit the race for the White House and Kamala Harris emerged as Donald Trump’s opponent, cups with the vice president’s name have dominated. Now, just before voting ends in an election that polls show is anyone’s to win, the shop’s count is giving the odds to the Democratic candidate. At least in this corner of East Hampton, Harris is sweeping Trump — 14,218 cups to 7,418 (including when Biden was his opponent).

Bryant Riley, the co-founder of investment firm B. Riley Financial Inc., told employees he feels “personally sick” after the collapse of Franchise Group Inc., which came a little more than a year after he helped to arrange a $2.8 billion buyout that became one of his firm’s key holdings. The August 2023 deal for Franchise Group, or FRG, saw B. Riley take a stake of about 31%. The Chapter 11 bankruptcy that FRG declared Sunday wiped out shareholders, leading to an impairment of $120 million for Riley’s Los Angeles-based company, after previously announced writedowns of up to $370 million.

A string of overwater bungalows set above turquoise water. Balconies overlooking a splashy F1 racetrack. An infinity pool stretching into a tranquil desert. These aren’t scenes from the Maldives or Monaco. This is Saudi Arabia, which is embracing tourism as it tries to diversify beyond oil. Click here to see what $5,300 a night gets you in the kingdom.