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| Tuesday, July 30, 2024 |
| Today's newsletter won't be our usual offering, and tomorrow's won't be either. Because, with the trade deadline looming at 6 pm tonight, that's taking precedence over our usual looks at the biggest performances and waiver-wire targets from today's action. |
| We had a bunch of trades go down Monday, and we're expecting even more to come today, with a bunch of legitimate superstars still lingering on the market. So that's what we're focusing on today. First, a recap of the trades that went down Monday with all the Fantasy implications therein, and then with a look at the five biggest questions remaining before the deadline – plus the rest of the biggest news you need to know about from Monday around MLB. |
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| Trade Deadline Updates |
| For another perspective on the deadline, check out Scott White's deadline deal tracker here, which will be updated all day Tuesday with the rest of the trades as they come in. For now, here's my thoughts on Monday's biggest deals, starting with a surprise three-team deal: |
| Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham to the Cardinals |
| Fedde is very much in fitting with the Cardinals' approach to rebuilding their rotation over the past year – he's nobody's idea of an ace, but he does everything well enough to be a solid starter, at least. He's probably overperformed to get to his 3.11 ERA so far, but this is a pretty significant upgrade in supporting cast, so it is probably an upgrade for his Fantasy value even if Fedde doesn't perform as well individually the rest of the way. He remains a decent low-end starter for Fantasy. |
| It's a reunion for Pham and the Cardinals, and if the Cardinals think he can still handle a significant amount of innings in center, he could be the team's primary option out there. That seems unlikely, and he's probably just a platoon bat for them. |
| Tommy Edman, Michael Kopech to the Dodgers |
| The Dodgers must have some faith that Edman can stay healthy and help fill their non-Will Smith holes up the middle. Edman has had a tough time getting back from offseason wrist surgery, and then recently suffered an ankle injury that further delayed his debut. If Edman gets right, he can fill in at shortstop while Mookie Betts is out, he can platoon with Gavin Lux at second base, or he can provide some stability in an outfield that has been pretty rough outside of Teoscar Hernandez. Edman has been back in action over the past five days at Double-A and could be back in the majors soon. He's been a consistent source of 30 or so steals in recent years and could be a boon for Fantasy players looking for speed with his return to an elite lineup looming. |
| I can see the Dodgers turning Kopech into an elite bullpen arm, but it isn't likely to matter until 2025 unless they get really aggressive about inserting him into the closer discussion. I don't expect that. |
| Miguel Vargas, Jeral Perez, Alexander Albertus to the White Sox |
| Vargas has 434 plate appearances in the majors with a .658 OPS, but he's also a recent top prospect who has crushed it at every level of the minors, so it's not hard to see why the White Sox would be interested in him. In 214 Triple-A games over almost exactly 1,000 PA, Varage is hitting .297/.412/.512, so it'll be interesting to see him hopefully get a full-time job with the White Sox. It's a miserable lineup – and could get worse by Tuesday's deadline – but at least it'll be a chance, something Vargas hasn't really gotten enough of with the Dodgers. In deeper leagues, Vargas is worth adding ahead of his White Sox debut. |
| The prospects are interesting, but not really guys your typical Fantasy player, even in Dynasty leagues needs to know about. |
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| Lane Thomas to the Guardians |
| It's a lineup upgrade for Thomas, but I'm not 100% convinced he's going to play every day. If he does, he could have a big second half in that Guardians lineup, especially with how much better it has been for power-hitting this season. Could he get to 50 steals? He has 22 to go and we know the Guardians like to run, ranking top five in the AL in steals in consecutive seasons. |
| Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros |
| The Astros gave up a legitimate haul for Kikuchi, so you have to think they have a lot of faith that Kikuchi can pull out of his recent slump – he has a 4.75 ERA for the season after getting off to a great start. Maybe it shouldn't be that surprising, though, as his xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all below 4.00, suggesting better days ahead. Kikuchi's career has been defined by inconsistency, but there's obviously talent there, and this is a better situation even if Minute Maid Park might not be a great landing spot for a lefty who struggles to keep the ball in the yard. |
| The Blue Jays got pitching prospect Jake Bloss, infield prospect Will Wagner, and Joey Loperfido , who has disappointed this season but is worth a look in deeper leagues with what should be an everyday role waiting for him in Toronto. Wagner is more of a long shot, but he's been productive at Triple-A, while Bloss has been very productive in the minors, albeit without high-end strikeout upside in the high minors. All three could be Fantasy relevant down the stretch. |
| Justin Turner to the Mariners |
| Turner hasn't been great this season, but he addresses the Mariners' biggest need, which is for contact hitting. We've also seen Turner is very much still capable of getting red hot, as he had an OPS over .880 in April and June. It's a park downgrade, but Turner should hit in the heart of the order and will have his moments the rest of the way. |
| Michael Lorenzen to the Royals |
| The Royals are hoping Lorenzen can provide a bit more stability than Alec Marsh, which is, I think, the extent of how much you have to think about this one. He doesn't get many strikeouts, but he can be a viable starter with a good defense and home park backing him up in Kansas City. It's an upgrade, but Lorenzen is still just a streamer. |
| Frankie Montas to the Brewers |
| The Brewers mostly need bodies in their rotation to keep their unexpected run at the top of the NL Central going, and that's what Montas is. Maybe they see something in him they can unlock, but Fantasy players will need to see evidence of it before having any interest in Montas and his 5.01 ERA. |
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| Biggest deadline questions |
| So, what's left? There are still plenty of big names whose status remains to be determined at today's deadline. Let's go through the five biggest questions we're hoping to get answers to today: |
| 1. Does Tarik Skubal get moved? |
| Ultimately, this one only matters so much for Fantasy: Skubal is gonna be an ace anywhere he pitches. If he lands in, say, Baltimore, maybe he gets an extra win or two he wouldn't have had with Detroit otherwise, but that might be the difference between the No. 1 SP the rest of the way and No. 2. The stakes from our perspective are simply not that high. |
| But we're still talking about one of the best pitchers in baseball, under club control for several more years at the age of 27, who might be moved to a contender at the deadline, and that's something every baseball fan is going to be keeping a close eye on. I still don't quite get the Tigers thinking in making him available – his value may never be higher, but this is a team that is close enough to competing that I just can't see the point in taking a step backward for 2024 and possibly 2025. This is the kind of pitching you build around. |
| 2. Does Luis Robert get moved? |
| On the other hand, it's hard to wrap your heart around the idea that the White Sox may not move Robert. Sure, he's got several years left on his contract, but does anyone see a path to the White Sox contending within the next two or three years? Robert is going to be close to 30 the next time the White Sox might even sniff .500, so even though his value is hardly at its highest right now – he is hitting just .210/.282/.440 right now – it still makes sense to try to get what you can for him now and go all-in on this rebuild. They didn't get a ton in the way of impact, or projectable talent in their Fedde/Pham trade Monday, and keeping Robert tied to this awful roster doesn't make much sense. |
| Robert might be the player with the most to gain from the deadline because the White Sox are truly a historically bad offense right now. If he lands somewhere like Philadelphia or with the Mets it could lead to a significant boost in value. Let's hope the White Sox do the right thing. |
| 3. What does Garret Crochet's usage look like the rest of the way? |
| Moving Crochet makes a lot of sense, too, though the White Sox and competing teams are surely having trouble figuring out how to value Crochet. He's pitched like an ace for much of the season, but he also has just two years left of club control and has already thrown 50 more innings than any season dating back to at least college. Crochet has made it clear that he intends to remain a starter the rest of the way, but has also apparently made it known that if any acquiring team intends to trade for him with the hope of having him pitch into the postseason, they will have to give him some kind of long-term commitment before he will do so. |
| It's a tough situation all around, and Fantasy players have the same concerns. Crochet hasn't thrown more than four innings in a start since June, and it's fair to wonder if he's going to have his workload limited down the stretch one way or another. He is trying to capitalize on his breakout, and we'd love to see him remain a starter the rest of the way. But will any team give up what the White Sox are surely asking for? And if not, will the White Sox respond by further limiting his innings, or possibly even shutting him down? |
| There's no way I could drop Crochet right now; he's pitched like an ace for too long for that. But there's a very real chance his value completely tanks in Fantasy after the deadline. Accounting for that is incredibly tough, but I do think you should at least be considering a trade of Crochet if you have him right now. |
| 4. Did Mason Miller's injury kill his market? |
| Miller fractured the pinky in his non-pitching hand just a week before the deadline, and it's not clear how long he is expected to remain out. But he has plenty of appeal in the trade market beyond the next two months, seeing as Miller still has five seasons of club control left and might be able to transition back to the rotation after his breakout as one of the game's best closers. The Dodgers have shown interest in Miller, according to reports, and the Yankees have been linked to him, as well. We'd love to see a legitimate contender go out and get Miller, who has just 15 saves despite being utterly dominant in the ninth inning so far. |
| 5. Which other closers might be moved? |
| Here are the incumbent closers who seem most likely to be moved before the deadline: Tanner Scott, Pete Fairbanks, Chad Green, Luis Garcia, and Kirby Yates. There might be a few I'm missing but those seem to be the most obvious names, with the Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, and Cubs seeming like the most likely teams to go out and aggressively add a high-end, high-leverage reliever (a classification that does not include every one of the closers listed earlier, to be clear). There are typically so many moving parts in bullpen trades that it doesn't make a ton of sense to try to predict who will or won't be moved ahead of time, but if you've been relying on Scott or Yates, especially, you probably need to be thinking about how you're going to replace their saves if they do get moved. John Brebbia, Ben Joyce, and Tyler Ferguson are reasonable names to speculate on based on moves that have already gone down, while David Robertson, Anthony Bender, and Andrew Nardi could become viable options by tomorrow morning. |
| News and notes |
| Jack Flaherty was scratched from Monday's start as the Tigers continue to try to look for a trade partner. He seems all but certain to be moved before this evening's deadline. |
| Christian Walker exited Monday due to left oblique tightness. He'll have an MRI Tuesday to determine the extent of the injury, but if it ends up being serious, it could impact how the Diamondbacks approach the deadline. |
| Cody Bellinger was activated from the IL but not in the Cubs lineup, which was a surprise. I wonder if this is similar to Flaherty's situation, where the Cubs are holding Bellinger out for the deadline. |
| Reynaldo Lopez is considered day-to-day after an MRI on his right forearm came back negative. The Braves are hopeful Lopez will avoid the IL, which is great news. |
| Josh Naylor was back in the lineup after missing three straight with general soreness. |
| Bryan Reynolds was back in the lineup after missing four games on the bereavement list. |
| Josh Jung was finally activated from the IL. He's been out since early April after undergoing right wrist surgery. Like Bellinger, he was not in the lineup for his first game back, but I do expect him to be back today. |
| Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Devin Williams will not be used on back-to-back days for the time being, which would have left an opportunity for Trevor Megill to remain in the mix for saves except he was added to the IL with a lower-back injury. Joel Payamps would seem to be the next man up if they opt not to turn to Williams. |
| Francisco Alvarez was out of the lineup Monday due to left shoulder soreness. |
| Carlos Estevez was asked what his role with the Phillies would be. He responded with "I'm down for whatever, man." I expect him to be the team's first option as closer, but it won't be a clear-cut thing the way it was in L.A. for him. |
| Giancarlo Stanton made his return Monday and was in the lineup, batting fifth. |
| While the Padres remain hopeful Yu Darvish will be back at some point later this season, there doesn't appear to be a timetable for his return. He's been on the restricted list for three-plus weeks while dealing with an unspecified personal issue. |
| Merrill Kelly will throw a three-inning simulated game Wednesday while Eduardo Rodriguez could make his season debut next week in Cleveland. Both are rostered pretty widely, and I expect pretty similar results from them, with Rodriguez probably having a bit more upside. |
| The Astros are promoting outfielder Pedro Leon to take Joey Loperfido's spot on the roster. Leon was hitting .297/.377/.519 in Triple-A, but he's also 26 and was striking out 26% of the time, so I'm not expecting an immediate impact here. He's a name to watch if he can get hot for the Astros. |
| Jon Gray was placed on the IL with a right groin strain and could miss up to a month of action. |
| Hurston Waldrep was reinstated from the IL and optioned to Triple-A on Monday. |
| The Dbacks optioned Yilber Diaz back to Triple-A. He had three strong starts and one really bad one while he was up in the Majors and is a name to watch out for whenever he gets another opportunity. |
| Yariel Rodriguez was optioned back to Triple-A after an awful start on Monday. His bad day was punctuated by a scary hit-by-pitch to James McCann, who was, rather incredibly, able to remain in the game despite being hit in the face. |
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