The Forecast

Welcome back to The Forecast, where we help you think about the future — from next week to next decade — with predictions and analysis from around the world.

This Sunday we’ve got winners from a TikTok ban, wobbles in several democracies, colleges closing and uranium ETFs.

Week Ahead

Monday: China’s price data will be scrutinized for signs of deflation; European finance ministers — including the UK’s Rachel Reeves — meet in Brussels.

Tuesday: Australia’s central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady; China releases its November trade report; Javier Milei marks one year as president of Argentina with his approval rate rising.

Wednesday: China’s top leaders reportedly begin their annual closed-door economic meeting; the US and Argentina release CPI.

Thursday: The ECB is expected to cut rates by a quarter point as politics on both sides of the Atlantic threaten the euro zone’s outlook; India’s CPI is likely to report that inflation eased in November.

Friday: The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey is expected to show business confidence strengthening.

What Will Replace Americans’ TikTok Time?

TikTok’s chance of surviving a US ban took a major hit on Friday when a top Washington court upheld a law that could block the app beginning in mid-January.

Now TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance Ltd., is hoping for a lifeline. It’s possible the US Supreme Court will take up the case, or that President-elect Donald Trump will step in to try and stop a ban. ByteDance could also find an American buyer for TikTok’s US business, an option it vehemently opposes.

None of those scenarios seem particularly likely, though, and TikTok’s competitors are most certainly licking their chops: The 170 million Americans who use the app every month may soon have a lot more free time.

Virtually any app with a large, young user base could theoretically benefit from a TikTok ban — but no companies are better positioned than Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google.

Both Meta and Google currently offer popular TikTok competitors that people are familiar with, which would make for a relatively easy transition. Meta’s Reels, which is built into Facebook and Instagram, benefits from the company’s user base of more than 3 billion people, and Meta says that 50% of the time people already spend on Instagram is on Reels. Google’s offering, a product within YouTube called YouTube Shorts, has more than 2 billion monthly users.

Other smaller platforms could also see a boost, including Snapchat, Reddit or even X. A ban could also prompt new rivals to emerge.

It’s still possible that Trump tries to step in and stop a ban, and it was just a few months ago that the president-elect worried publicly that blocking TikTok would make Mark Zuckerberg’s products too powerful.

But that Trump-as-savior scenario suddenly seems less likely as his animosity toward Zuckerberg has softened. The two were spotted dining together at Mar-a-Lago the day before Thanksgiving, and Zuckerberg is angling for an informal advisory role to help Trump shape tech policy going forward.

Perhaps sticking it to Zuckerberg isn’t so necessary after all.

—Kurt Wagner, Bloomberg News

Predictions

“The largest intergenerational wealth transfer in US history is about to take place — though the vast majority of Americans are unlikely to inherit much money at all. About $105 trillion is projected to be passed down from older generations over the next quarter century.” — Daniel Neligh, Maria Clara Cobo, and Andre Tartar, Bloomberg News

“Prolonged political gridlock [in France] probably won’t lead to massive economic turmoil, given the government’s ability to extend the 2024 budget into next year… The main risk is that the combination of high political uncertainty, wider spreads on government debt and deep, untargeted austerity could hit the economy hard.” — Antonio Barroso and Eleonora Mavroeidi, Bloomberg Economics (Terminal subscribers only)

“‘The situation points in the direction of another strike,’ shipping analyst Lars Jensen wrote in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday” about the negotiations between dockworkers and US ports. — Brendan Murray, Bloomberg News

“The number of colleges [in the US] that close each year is poised to significantly increase as schools contend with a slowdown in prospective students.” — Nic Querolo, Bloomberg News

“Uranium ETFs may be a less obvious but effective theme to benefit from the race for companies to expand artificial intelligence” because tech giants are investing in nuclear reactors. — Eric Balchunas and Andre Yapp, Bloomberg Intelligence (Terminal subscribers only)

Keep an Eye On

Democracy is ending the year with a wobble.

This week South Korea briefly endured martial law; Romania’s top court ordered a rerun of its presidential election after an investigation was launched into meddling in the first round; Georgia’s president urged on pro-EU protesters in response to alleged election interference; and the French government was toppled by a vote of no confidence.

What could next week hold? Martin Quick and Maeva Cousin of Bloomberg Economics have helpfully — or, perhaps, morbidly — compiled a “Democratic Erosion Index” to gauge the weakness of countries’ democratic institutions. It combines data on voter disillusionment, executive power, suppression of the press and more. South Korea ranks fifth among democracies in the G-20 by this index, trailing Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and India. The US is not far behind.

(Terminal subscribers can view the index here.)

— Walter Frick, Bloomberg Weekend Edition

What Are the Chances...

59%

The chance TikTok is banned in the US before May, according to Polymarket. Kalshi, another prediction market, puts the chance of a ban in 2025 at just 44%. (Forecasts as of Friday 5 p.m. ET.)

Have a nice Sunday and a productive week.

— Walter Frick, Katherine Bell and Kira Bindrim, Weekend Edition; Kurt Wagner, Bloomberg News