Plus, tariffs and orange juice.
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Welcome back to The Forecast, where we help you think about the future — from next week to next decade.

This week we’re looking at whether authors will write to influence AIs, what to watch for in an EU-US trade war, the chances of a peace deal in Ukraine and the decline of orange juice.

Writing for an Audience of AIs

Authors around the world are weighing how to respond to the emergence of generative AI. Some are demanding assurances that their work will be excluded from AI training data. Others are reluctantly striking deals to get paid for their work’s inclusion, as Alice Robb writes in an essay this weekend

Microsoft offered publisher HarperCollins $5,000 in exchange for allowing the tech giant to use Robb’s 2018 book in its training data. Her decision (she’d get half the cash) was clouded by uncertainty: No one could say whether this was a good deal. 

“Anything’s better than zero,” the financial journalist Felix Salmon told her. Another writer friend argued for taking it, citing “desperate times.” 

But while much of the discussion so far has been about getting work out of AI, some writers are wondering how they can get their work into AI — in the hopes of influencing what it has to say.

Take a post on LinkedIn by Ken Mandel, a marketing executive at transport and payments app Grab, that made the rounds last week: 

“For over a century, advertising has been about human attention,” he wrote. But that changes if AIs, not humans, make purchasing decisions. If an AI agent is the one picking out your groceries for you, who does a marketer need to convince? 

“In a world where agents (not humans) interact with brands, the game shifts from advertising to AI influence and optimisation,” Mandel mused. “Brands must ‘train’ AI agents to prefer their products in natural decision-making.”

Economist and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Tyler Cowen recently made a similar argument, but for public intellectuals. “Consider the AIs as part of your audience,” he advised. Write to teach them things, to expand your influence and to persuade them of your point of view. 

That idea got a boost this week with the launch of OpenAI’s “deep research” tool, which Cowen compares to “having a good PhD-level research assistant” — except much, much faster.

If AI agents increasingly do research for journalists, politicians and businesses, then academics, policy wonks and activists may join marketers in the race to influence what those agents think and say. And if marketers and public intellectuals are actively trying to get AI to pay attention to their work, that means more content creators choosing to let AI train on their data for free — which could make it harder for other authors to get paid for granting the same access. 

In the end, Robb took the deal from Microsoft. The horse was out of the barn, she concluded. 

— Walter Frick, Bloomberg Weekend Edition

Predictions

“Climate risk will lead 70,000 US neighborhoods to suffer falling property values at some point over the next 30 years.” — Liam Denning and Mark Gongloff, Bloomberg Opinion

German women are shifting right: “Women have long been a moderating influence on postwar Germany’s politics… even as men began drifting toward extremists… That’s poised to change in elections this month [as] a pair of extremist parties — headed by women — are making a concerted effort to boost their appeal to female voters.” — Laura Alviz, Bloomberg News

Even the threat of trade war will mean less trade: “The post-election surge in trade policy uncertainty could curb world trade by 1.6% by the end of the year” according to Bloomberg Economics. — Malcolm Scott, Bloomberg News (For Terminal subscribers, here’s more.)

China’s luxury spending isn’t coming back: An economic slowdown and shifting consumption habits killed the country’s luxury boom, according to reporting by Bloomberg Originals

“Americans are expected to place an estimated $1.5 billion in legal wagers” on today’s Super Bowl. — Ira Boudway and Lydia Beyoud, Bloomberg News

Florida orange juice could go extinct: Inflation, combined with shifts in sugar consumption, are leading to OJ’s decline, Businessweek reports. In Bloomberg Opinion, Mary Ellen Klas says tariffs could be the “kill shot” for Florida’s citrus industry. 

Keep an Eye On

Will Trump Divide Europe?

Donald Trump has said that tariffs on the European Union are “definitely” coming. But his decision to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico bolstered the EU’s confidence that it can cut a deal on trade, Bloomberg reported last week

The question on both sides of the Atlantic is whether the EU can stay unified in the face of tariff threats. “We think so,” writes Antonio Barroso, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Geoeconomics. “Voting rules and integrated European supply chains argue for a united front.” (Link for Terminal subscribers.)

If Trump applies across-the-board tariffs on the EU in its entirety, the bloc will have a better shot at sticking together — though Barroso notes that EU members lack the ability to respond unilaterally. Still, tariffs on specific countries or sectors would be trickier. 

Then there’s the question of what Trump says he wants. If it’s to rebalance trade, there’s more scope for a deal, said Dr. Elvire Fabry, a researcher at Jacques Delors Institute, a French think tank, on a recent panel. But if he wants to target European regulations — ESG or digital platforms, for example — “that would be much more complex for the Europeans” said Fabry.

“The EU has more ammunition and less dependence on the US [than Canada and Mexico],” says Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Geoeconomics Center, a Washington think tank. But if it comes to it, the bloc “will obviously retaliate.”

— Walter Frick, Bloomberg Weekend Edition 
(Disclosure: I was previously a part-time editor at the Atlantic Council.)

What Are the Chances...

22%
The chances that Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire of at least 28 days before May 25, 2025, according to Good Judgment Open, a no-money prediction platform. The Trump administration is expected to present a plan to end the war during the Munich Security Conference in Germany, which begins on Friday. Forecast as of 4:30 p.m. ET Friday. 

Weekend Reads

Canadian Fury With Trump Is About More Than Just Trade
How Much Should Authors Get Paid to License Books to AI?
Guantanamo Bay Is the Poisonous Fruit That Tempts All Presidents
‘Private Banker’ TV Drama Explores the Secret World of Japan’s Ultra-Rich
Bill Gates’s Source Code’ Is a Thank You Letter to Lax Parenting

Week Ahead

Sunday: China reports inflation data, which Bloomberg Economics expects to have risen for the first time since August; the Kansas City Chiefs have a 52% chance of winning the Super Bowl, according to Kalshi as of 4:30 p.m. ET Friday.

Monday: The AI Action Summit begins in Paris, with US Vice President JD Vance among those expected to speak; China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US take effect.

Tuesday: Jordan’s King Abdullah II meets with Trump; Fed chair Jerome Powell gives his semiannual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee.

Wednesday: The US and India report CPI; Powell testifies to the House Financial Services panel; Robinhood reports earnings.

Thursday: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with Trump; the NATO defense ministers’ meeting begins; Coinbase reports earnings.

Friday: The Munich Security Conference begins.

Also: On Friday, Trump pledged to unleash “reciprocal” tariffs on all trading partners sometime this week.

Have a nice Sunday and a productive week.

— Walter Frick and Kira Bindrim, Bloomberg Weekend Edition

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