HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT

Boom town. The U.S. imports only about 9 percent of its oil from Saudi Arabia. But many other countries receive more — India and Indonesia are considered particularly dependent on oil imports — and U.S. producers could benefit from that, especially if Saudi oil fields are offline long term or if another attack depresses its capacity further. In the short term, gas prices are predicted to go up stateside by as much as 24 cents per gallon.

Linchpin. After notorious Iran hawk John Bolton was booted from the Trump administration last week, talk arose about Trump and Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani potentially meeting. This attack — and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s subsequent accusation that Iran is the culprit — has thrown a wrench in that possible easing of tensions. Trump tweeted that the U.S. is “locked and loaded” … but is awaiting Saudi guidance.

The deciders. That tweet, which explicitly put Riyadh in the driver’s seat, has raised questions about how much control the U.S. has in the situation. With Trump already appearing to be supporting Saudi Arabia, it’s another thing altogether to be awaiting the Kingdom’s cue. Playing second fiddle to Saudi Arabia is problematic, especially given the country’s dismal record on human rights, its historic spread of extremist Wahhabi thought and its sectarian posture in the Middle East’s Shia-Sunni tensions. Saudi Arabia has asserted that this weekend's attacks used Iranian weapons but hasn't directly accused Iran of being behind them.

World police. As recently as this summer, Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the idea of the U.S. as a global enforcer, pointing out that China and Russia don’t police the conduct of other countries. But between his willingness to jump to Saudi Arabia’s defense and a proposed mutual defense pact discussed with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend, the U.S. president could see America pulled into exactly such a role in the Middle East — an uneasy contrast with his displeasure over defense agreements, such as that with NATO.

WHAT TO READ

America Has a Huge Stash of Emergency Oil. This Is Why, by Rich Barbieri on CNN Business
“Any oil drawn from the SPR would not give an immediate boost to global supply. It has to be pulled out of storage and then sold into the marketplace of buyers and sellers, a process that could take about two weeks.”

Will the Hard Lessons of the Saudi Oil Attack Be Learned? by Clyde Russell in Reuters
“In recent months the oil market has largely discounted geopolitical risk in the Middle East and chosen to focus on the mounting worries that the U.S.-China trade dispute is tipping the global economy toward recession.”

WHAT TO WATCH