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| Wednesday, June 19, 2024 |
| I started playing Daily Fantasy Sports in 2013, and from my experience, I remember the peak of playing DFS coming during the 2016 NFL season. You might remember it as the year of David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell. Johnson put up a monstrous 879 receiving yards on 120 targets, and Bell's 7.8 targets per game actually put him on track for even more total targets if he had played a 16-game season. The two felt like cheat codes that couldn't be priced high enough, especially on sites that used full-PPR scoring. |
| A couple of years after that, Scott Barrett quantified what we experienced. Just before Christian McCaffrey's historical 124- and then 142-target seasons, I might add, Scott wrote this: |
| "In my PPR rankings, I have Christian McCaffrey ranked as my No. 12 fantasy running back for 2018 and Devonta Freeman coming in two spots below him at No. 14. I didn't think this would be a controversial ranking, but a few of my Twitter followers certainly felt that it was. |
| The common critique was something along the lines of this – "How could you rank McCaffrey so much higher than Freeman? Freeman averaged 16.6 touches per game last year and McCaffrey averaged only 12.3... Not all touches should be treated equally. There are two different types of touches a running back can garner (a rushing attempt or a reception) and one is worth significantly more than the other for fantasy. For running backs, over the past 10 seasons, a target has been worth 2.74 times as much as a carry in PPR leagues. (A reception is worth even more than that.) Even in standard leagues, a target has been worth 1.36 times as much as a carry." |
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| You're going to notice that I reference Scott a lot. He does terrific work and is exactly the type of analyst who I am happy to point you in the direction of -- I will never assume that your Fantasy football experience should only extend to the borders of what I can convey to you in this newsletter. Scott is one of the analysts who I have learned the most from, and he has lots to offer any of you who have any curiosity about exploring what he's doing over at FantasyPoints.com. On that note, you're also going to notice me referencing Ryan Heath's work a lot. |
| One of the most valuable FantasyPoints creations is an all-encompassing volume stat, "Weighted Opportunity." Ryan details the relevance of that stat in this article. For today's newsletter, we are focusing specifically on receiving involvement, which is just a part of a running back's weighted opportunity. |
| I've written this series highlighting running backs who bring exciting upside as pass-catchers since 2020. It's been one of my favorite articles to write each summer. Versatile dual-threat backs have become my preferred flavor ever since the Matt Forte days, and David Johnson's sudden emergence into Fantasy superstardom locked that fetish into place for me. I've highlighted some big "hits" at the RB position in this space each year, and while I know weighted opportunity is the more important stat than simple targets, I still believe that my fixation on how each might disperse route volume at the RB position each offseason is a fruitful endeavor. I enjoy it, at least! |
| Typically, I try to keep the article somewhere between six to eight thousand words, with about one-third of that focused on detailing the process and the rest centered around specific player and team analysis. I'm aiming to keep these newsletters significantly shorter than that, so I'm skipping the process outlining entirely -- if you're interested in reading about that, check out last year's article before digging in here. |
| Today, we're just going to focus on players to target at the RB position. The players that I chose to highlight in this space are the ones who I believe might offer difference-making contributions (as receivers) at the RB position in 2024. |
| Tyjae Spears |
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| Did you realize that Tyjae Spears had the same number of targets (70) as Rachaad White in 2023? |
| Spears was a highly productive pass-catcher at Tulane, and in his first year as a pro, only Breece Hall posted a higher target per route run rate (28.3%) among running backs with 300+ routes run. Spears was targeted on 23.1% of his routes. Compare that to a 21.8% rate for Jahmyr Gibbs (on 325 routes) in his rookie season. Bijan Robinson was targeted on 20.5% of his 420 routes. |
| Tennessee's new coaching staff has spoken glowingly about the versatility that Spears brings, and all indications are the this team is going to pass the ball significantly more than during the Mike Vrabel era. Head Coach Brian Callahan spent five seasons as the offensive coordinator for the Bengals, during which Cincinnati ranked fifth in dropbacks per game. In 2023, only the Chiefs posted a higher pass rate over expectation than Cincinnati. This team is likely going to pass the ball quite a bit, especially if the Vegas look-ahead lines hold true and the Titans are often playing from behind. |
| Either or both of Spears or Tony Pollard stand to benefit. Of the two, Spears was the far more electric player in 2023. Pollard ranked 16th percentile at the RB position in yards after the catch per reception. I'm expecting Spears to be the more involved receiving back, and if Pollard ever is forced to miss time, Spears could be responsible for one of the highest target per game marks at the RB position while filling a three-down role. Among running backs being selected outside of the top-80, Spears and Jaylen Warren are my two favorites. Both should play a meaningful role and each carries contingent upside if their backfield counterpart ever misses time. |
| Javonte Williams |
| Prior to 2023, Russell Wilson had only sent 18% of his career targets to the RB position. In his first season playing in a Sean Payton-designed offense, Wilson led the NFL with 30% of his targets going to the RB position. |
| Bo Nix had the highest career RB target rate among 22 recent QB draft prospects that I highlighted (basically anybody who has played significant NFL snaps or seems to have a realistic chance to do so). The running back position is going to receive a lot of attention in Denver, and depending on how the snaps are dispersed, there may be a significant source of PPR value to be found from this backfield. |
| The following excerpt is from Ben Gretch's Stealing Signals newsletter post, "Perfect Storm" candidates for monster 2024 seasons: |
| "If we jump into the RotoViz Screener and quickly filter for team RB targets for the seasons between 2006 and 2020, which constitutes the Brees' Saints era (and all but one Payton season), and we look for Saints' teams among the 480 team-seasons in that 15-year period, we find that every single one of their 15 years over that span ranks very highly in terms of RB targets. Over that span, the Saints have seasons that rank second, third, sixth, seventh, ninth, 11th, 21st, 22nd, 26th, 42nd, 45th, 51st, 53rd, 61st, and 76th. That 76th ranking — their lowest season — still featured a very strong 136 RB targets (again, the Broncos led the NFL last year at 153 in 17 games), which came in at about the 84th percentile of the 480 team seasons we're looking at in that span." |
| Ben does phenomenal work, I highly recommend that you familiarize yourself with him if you aren't already aware. |
| Generally, RB targets are a product of coaching. And that is almost entirely the factor influencing Denver's projected RB target total for 2024. I do want to focus on Javonte Williams the player for a moment, though, because I believe he may be capable of maximizing this opportunity in a way that many Fantasy players might not assume. He split a backfield with Michael Carter at UNC, and Carter was the preferred passing-down back, but Williams was actually far more efficient with his route running opportunities. Since entering the NFL in 2021, Williams ranks 11th among backs with 500+ routes in yards per route run, ahead of the likes of Rachaad White, Saquon Barkley, and Travis Etienne. Williams has the second-highest target per route run rate (26.6%) among that group of 36 running backs. He ranks ahead of CMC and Austin Ekeler during that time. Of course, that rate is heavily influenced by last year's absurd 34% rate under Payton. |
| For reference, the collective "Sean Payton RB" target per route run rate (during the years I have the data -- 2014-2023) is 25.8%. Playing for Payton certainly doesn't imply a TPRR over 30%. In fact, among "Payton RBs" with at least 150 routes run, Williams' 2023 TPRR ranks second. Alvin Kamara topped it one time, in 2017. |
| I don't believe that we have any reason to believe that Jaleel McLaughlin is going to play an expanded role in 2024. Payton has been effusive with praise for McLaughlin, but what's new? McLaughlin was awesome upon bursting onto the scene in 2023, and what did Payton do? He played him less. McLaughlin's season peaked in Week 5, when he totaled 12 touches and a 33% snap rate. He then played 41% of the snaps in a blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 6 and never saw his snap rate above 30% again. McLaughlin averaged a 16% snap rate and 14% route participation rate from Week 7 on. |
| My guess is that the Broncos move on from Samaje Perine, expand the role for Williams and use McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estime as tandem relief change of pace options with Estime taking more short-yardage work and less receiving work. Denver also seems to love converted WR-to-RB UDFA Blake Watson. I'm projecting him to occasionally suit up and assume 5-10% of the total RB routes over the course of the season. |
| If Perine is not on the roster, I'm projecting Williams for a median outcome of a 50% route participation rate, which would be a massive jump from last year's 30% rate. Williams and Perine combined for a 65% rate in 2023. |
| With median projections of a 50% route participation rate and a 27% target per route run rate (DEN RB position average was 31% last year) projection, Williams comes out with a median projection of 79 targets! The top to his range of outcomes is basically 100 targets, which is only available to a handful of players. Breece Hall led all running backs with 95 targets in 2023. Hall, Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, and CMC are the players who have a ceiling target projection in triple digits. Williams is close to reaching that. I would have never assumed that before creating my projections. |
| Again, that projection is only reflective of his outlook if Perine is not on the team. And to be honest, I probably still need to scale it back. Sean Payton rotates players so much. During the nine years that I have route data available for Payton-coached teams, five running backs hit a +50% route participation rate -- Kamara did it four times and Mark Ingram did it once. Williams could hit that mark, but it's certainly not a guarantee, even if Perine isn't on the roster. |
| Jaylen Warren |
| Among backs with 150+ routes run, only Williams and Kamara were targeted at a higher per-route rate than Jaylen Warren (29.4%) in 2023. Warren's rate was higher than Breece Hall's. As a rookie, Warren's rate was just 19%, but that came on a much smaller sample size. That's also important to note -- Warren earned more route running opportunities in Year 2, simply taking them away from Najee Harris. |
| Pittsburgh's route participation rate: |
2022 -- Harris (47%), Warren (29%)
2023 -- Warren (45%), Harris (36%) |
| It should come as no surprise! Warren has been significantly more effective with his opportunities. |
Target per route run rate
(2022-23) |
25% -- Warren
18% -- Harris |
Yard per route run rate
(2022-23) |
1.38 -- Warren
0.80 -- Harris |
| I mentioned already that Russell Wilson never targeted the RB position at a high rate before 2023. He actually sorta did in 2022, though. His rate was 22% under Nathaniel Hackett in 2022, that was his first time with a rate above 20%. It's possible that we see him lean on checkdowns more often as his ability to scramble wanes later in his career. |
| Say what you will about Arthur Smith, but he loves using his running backs and he loves using ancillary pieces -- check and check for Warren, at least theoretically. Who knows what we will actually see from Smith. In 2023, we saw Bijan Robinson total 86 targets on an awesome 70% route participation rate. In 2021, Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis combined for 127 targets. Throughout his career, Arty's quarterbacks have targeted the RB position at a league average rate (18%), but scrambling QBs Marcus Mariota (14%) and Ryan Tannehill (12%) heavily affected that sample. Desmond Ridder (24%), Taylor Heinecke (24%), and Matt Ryan (26%) all offer reason for optimism that Warren and Harris might be targeted at a high rate for a Steelers team devoid of pass-catching playmakers beyond George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. |
| Warren finished with 74 targets in 2023, and that falls squarely within his range of outcomes in my 2024 projections where his median outcome is 79. Barring an injury to Harris, it's unlikely that we see Warren post a difference-making target total. He does have that type of upside available to him if Harris misses time or if this backfield split shakes out in a way that projections can't predict. |
| James Cook |
| I've heard many speculate that James Cook will see an uptick in targets without Stefon Diggs around to hog them in 2024. Initially, I rejected the theory just because I've studied this stuff for a long time and rarely see running back targets be affected in a meaningful way by vacated WR targets. Also, Josh Allen has a career RB target rate of 15.4% and hasn't ever been above 20% in a season. His single-season high was 19.6% in 2022, and the Bills have pervasively mentioned a desire to take less burden off of Allen as a rusher, so I thought maybe we'd see him target the RB position more in 2023. Instead, his rate fell to 14.9%. |
| Still, I remembered Cook seeing more targets down the stretch after Joe Brady took over as Buffalo's play caller. I decided to start there and see if I could find any evidence that maybe his receiving role will expand in 2024. What I hoped to find was an increase in route participation rate upon Brady's installment as play caller. Instead, Cook's route rate was actually down slightly, from 49% with Ken Dorset to 44% with Brady. Cook was targeted at a higher rate during the Brady era, but that could be random. You can find his splits with either Brady or Dorsey calling plays here. |
| I don't see a path to a significant target total for Cook. His career target per route run rate is 19.9%. He had more games (four) with one or fewer targets in 2023 as he had games (three) of 5+ targets in 2023. It's so easy for him to become an afterthought in this offense. Allen has reigned things in a bit in recent years, but still, only Lamar Jackson has a higher percentage of dropbacks that take three or more seconds before an attempt over the past three seasons. On those plays, where the QB is holding the ball longer, only Jalen Hurts has a higher average depth of target than Allen. Those two stand out as clearly preferring to air it out and rarely dump it off to the RB position when plays break down. When Allen's initial reads aren't there, he makes a play himself. It would be totally out of character for him to start choosing the dump off in 2024. |
| Maybe we see more designed targets for Cook. There truly just aren't many running backs who draw targets as a designed part of the offense. This tweet displays the 10 running backs who finished with even 30+ first-read targets over the course of the full 2023 season. You'll find Spears, Warren, and many other names that we'll discuss today. Cook only had 23 of such opportunities, fewer than Antonio Gibson and Jerome Ford. |
| We can tell a story where Cook sees more designed looks in 2024, and it may come true. If it does, I'll be here updating you in this newsletter as soon as that evidence becomes available to us. |
| De'Von Achane |
| De'Von Achane had the same number of first-read targets (24) as Rachaad White, even though he only played in nine healthy games as a rookie. Achane had a healthy enough target per route run rate at the collegiate level, Tua Tagovailoa targeted his running backs at a relatively high rate at Alabama, and the Dolphins produced one of the highest RB target shares in 2023. |
| To quote David Furuones' article, Dolphins RB De'Von Achane showing no signs of slowing down in Year 2 — and could get involved in new ways: |
| "Two specific goals Achane has this offseason: Get stronger to better withstand the hits taken in the NFL and improve on his route-running to get the ball more often in the passing game. McDaniel is going to find new ways to get the electric Achane the ball as the running back has a full year in the offense…" |
| Achane only ran 169 routes as a rookie, but he was targeted on a solid 21.9% of those opportunities. Upon returning from injury in Week 13, Achane's involvement as a receiver was more of a priority for Miami's offense. He played a significant role in three games prior to missing time with an injury and saw target totals of 4, 5, and 1. He averaged 4.4 targets upong returning in Week 13. Miami targeted Achane six times in the playoff loss against Kansas City and he even pushed up to nine targets in a Week 14 games against Tennessee. |
| Achane drew 17 targets as the pre-snap motion man as a rookie. He ranked second behind only Tyreek Hill in pre-snap motion routes and targets. Raheem Mostert also was used as the pre-snap motion man at a high rate, but not nearly as effectively. We could see some of those opportunities shift over to Achane in Year 2. |
| We have no way of knowing what type of role Achane will play in 2024, but it's at least worth considering that there's additional upside available to him beyond just the absurd rushing efficiency. Even if his rushing efficiency dips, Achane could offset it with an increase in targets. |
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Alvin Kamara
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| Kamara was targeted on 32% of his routes in 2023, his highest rate since his rookie season. Even while playing just 13 games and finishing 21st at the RB position in routes run, Kamara tied Bijan Robinson for second in total targets (86) and ranked 11th in total PPR points at RB. Who knows what will happen with his contract. Maybe Kendre Miller cuts into the veteran's workload more in 2024. Or maybe we see something similar to last year over a larger sample and Kamara is a PPR cheat code. Philip Rivers is the only QB with a higher RB target share over the past five seasons than Derek Carr. |
| Austin Ekeler |
| Among the QB prospects group that I examined, Jayden Daniels surprisingly had one of the highest RB target rates. I have Washington projected for a massive increase in pace of play under Kliff Kingsbury, resulting in the eighth-highest projected offensive play total. That number could climb much higher if Washington's offense proves better than expected. The Commanders are just 25th in implied points for the 2024 season, according to Vegas lookahead lines. |
| I'm expecting this offense to often be playing from behind and playing fast. That could result in more playing time than expected for Austin Ekeler, if he is indeed the passing downs back. I have Ekeler projected for 66 targets, so he really doesn't belong on this list. I wanted to mention him quickly because that Daniels RB target rate surprised me -- there is a potential outcome where Ekeler surprises us and is still totally viable for PPR formats. |
| Jahmyr Gibbs |
| I was hoping for more from Gibbs as a pass-catcher during his rookie season. He blew me away as a rusher, so I'm definitely not complaining. Gibbs only averaged six yards after the catch per reception, though, down from a league-wide average of 7.8 at RB. Among 15 running backs with 300+ routes run, Gibbs ranked 12th in yards per route run (0.97) ahead of only Kyren Williams (0.64), Tony Pollard (0.78), and Saquon Barkley (0.92). |
| My expectation is that we'll see him be more efficient with his receiving opportunities in Year 2. Gibbs was arguably the best receiving RB prospects in recent memory. |
| Jared Goff was a frequent checkdown artist in his first two seasons with the Lions, posting RB target rates of 23.5% in 2021 and 20.2% in 2022. In 2023, that rate was just 16.9%. Maybe D'Andre Swift was the driving force behind Goff's rates in his first two seasons with Detroit, but I would guess that we see the RB target rate increase in 2024. |
| I have Gibbs projected for 80 targets (up from 71) in Year 2, with upside for much more if David Montgomery is forced to miss time. As a reminder, Gibbs saw target totals of 10 and 5 in two games without Montgomery and registered a route participation rate above 70% in each of those games. |
Rachaad White
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| White's data as a rusher has been so bad. He's been less efficient than Chase Edmonds and Leonard Fournette while sharing backfields with them. Displayed below are White's ranks among 49 running backs with 100+ attempts in 2023. |
42nd - Yards after contact per attempt
36th - Avoided tackle rate
38th - Explosive rush rate
47th - Rush success rate (this is more of a team-level stat, but again, White registered a lower rate than Edmonds in the same backfield) |
| After averaging 3.7 yards per rush in 2022, White averaged only 3.6 yards in 2023. |
| How on Earth did he finish as the RB4 in Fantasy, then? Well, he ran more routes than any running back in football. He also recorded more explosive receptions (20+ yards gained) than anyone at the RB position, which is likely a bit fluky but also could be part of his game. White has decent top-line speed, and he consistently showed deceptive ability to set up angles that allowed him to beat open-field defenders with a one-cut move. Even if it is part of his game, is it something that we can expect to be repeated? |
| Over the past 10 seasons, there have been 32 instances of a running back recording 200+ receiving yards on explosive receptions. White joined that group with 259 receiving yards on 10 explosive receptions in 2023. Of those 32 instances, 27 were unique. Only four players (Kamara, McCaffrey, David Johnson, and Duke Johnson) hit 200+ yards of explosive receptions a second time, and Kamara was the only RB to record three such seasons. |
| History suggests that the probability of White repeating this year's big play production in the passing game is roughly 15%. White produced only one explosive reception on 50 catches as a rookie. What we got from White in 2023 was a shocking result. White's yards after the catch per reception as a rookie was 6.2. That number ballooned to 9.5 in Year 2 thanks to his outlier explosive reception rate. |
| Ultimately, White still would have turned in solid Fantasy production even if we regressed his explosive reception rate to the league average. His usage was so incredible that a top-12 Fantasy finish was almost inevitable for White in 2023. With similar route involvement in 2024, White will likely crush for Fantasy purposes. |
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| My goal with offseason analysis is to contextualize Fantasy production from the previous season in an attempt to delineate any differences between what happened and what we might expect to happen moving forward. It's worth recognizing when a player's Fantasy output was a top or bottom range of outcomes result, and all indications are that White's 2023 was near the very top of his potential ranges of outcomes. He ranked 43rd among 49 qualified running backs in PFF rushing grade. He ranked 20th in PFF receiving grade, which is solid but nowhere near the other two running backs who finished with 500+ receiving yards (Hall and CMC). Those two finished first and second in PFF receiving grade. There was a wide gap between Hall (88.9 PFF receiving grade) and McCaffrey (87.1) at the top and the next-highest player (Alvin Kamara - 78.4). According to PFF, White (67.3 receiving grade) does not belong in the same conversation as those players. |
| His target per route run rate (15.7%) was actually below the league average (18.8%) at RB. If White's route participation drops at all, he may be in big trouble from a Fantasy perspective. |
Jonathan Brooks
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| The offensive playcaller who engineered White's huge receiving contributions is now the Head Coach in Carolina. Dave Canales said of Jonathan Brooks, "I love that dude... he is exactly what we are looking for," after the Panthers moved up to make Brooks the RB1 in the 2024 draft class. |
| Bryce Young had one of the highest RB target rates among the college QBs that I examined, although he posted a below average rate (15%) as a rookie. Brooks will undoubtedly be the most talented pass-catching option Young has seen out of the backfield, though. |
| Brooks was targeted more and more as his first season as a starter at Texas progressed, finishing with 40+ receiving yards in 3 of 4 games before tearing his ACL. His career 15.5% TPRR and 1.62 YPRR rates are better than Bijan Robinson's data (15.0% and 1.57) at Texas, and we just saw a rookie Robinson finish with the fourth-most receiving yards (487) of any RB in 2023. |
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| Bijan Robinson |
| Kirk Cousins has registered RB target rates of 16.7% (2023) and 12.9% (2022) recently, and he hasn't had a rate above 19% since 2019. Atlanta's new coaching regime comes over from the L.A. Rams who have targeted the RB position at the lowest rate of any team during the Sean McVay era. So, that kinda sucks. That's not what we were hoping to hear upon being freed from the Arthur Smith albatross. |
| The good aspect of this coaching regime, assuming they operate similarly to McVay, is that we will likely see a Robinson at or near the top of the RB position in snap rate and route participation. From an overall Fantasy perspective, this is an encouraging coaching change for Robinson. Particularly when it comes to red zone touches, this is an encouraging change. For sure. |
| But, I am worried we may see Robinson's target total stagnate or drop from his fourth-ranked mark in 2023. |
| Breece Hall |
| No running back has averaged more yards per route run than Breece Hall since he entered the NFL. (Yes, this is just an excuse for me to highlight the time that the New York Jets mentioned me on Twitter.) |
| Only Kamara has a higher target-per-route run rate than Hall over the past two seasons. Hall flashed some peak David Johnson-esque dual-threat ability in 2023, drawing eight or more targets on six different occasions. How can we expect things to change with Aaron Rodgers at QB? |
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| Well, Rodgers has a career RB target rate (16.5%) that is well below the league average, but he's been above the average in each of his past four seasons. Among current starting QBs, only Derek Carr (21.6%) and Justin Herbert (21.5%) have a higher rate than Rodgers (21.3%) since 2019. |
| The Jets are projected to be playing with a lead far more often in 2024, and Rodgers prefers to play at a very slow pace. New York has one of the best defenses in the NFL on paper, so it's possible that there are simply significantly fewer route running opportunities available for Hall as the Jets lean on the ground game more. His targets were an essential part of Hall's Fantasy output in 2023, but as long as he is rewarded with more touchdown-scoring opportunities, we should be fine trading out a few of Hall's garbage-time receptions. |
| I came so close to keeping this newsletter under 5,000 words. We'll get there. I'm used to writing behemoth research pieces. |
| Before you leave, check this out! I created a new Beyond the Boxscore project that I am super excited about: |
| 'In The Lab,' a Fantasy Football Today Newsletter dynamic learning space for special people who like learning stuff |
| This Friday, I'm going to explore topics decided upon by the FFT Newsletter audience. We already have nearly 100 responses on the initial form, how cool! If you follow this link, you'll be able to fill out a quick Google Form and inform me of what you are curious about learning more about! July is right around the corner, and you know what comes after that. It's go time! Let's get in the lab! I am amped to learn more with you! |
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