Making sense of the new draft climate deal as crucial summit comes to a climax

Good morning.

“We will not go silently to our watery graves”: those were the stern words from John Silk, the head of the Marshall Islands delegation, in response to a draft climate agreement at Cop28. The unequivocal condemnation of the draft by dozens of countries reflects the gravity of the situation for those who are facing the sharpest effects of the climate crisis.

The annual UN climate summit started off in Dubai on a hopeful note, even though it was being hosted in a country with deep connections to the oil industry. But after two weeks of debate and negotiations, the mood had soured. A draft deal put forward by the summit presidency was criticised by delegates as being “grossly insufficient”, “incoherent”, “unacceptable” and “unjust” because it did not include any mention of either “phasing out” or “phasing down” the use of fossil fuels.

After much anticipation, the second draft was published in the early hours of the morning. The news was so big that the UK’s climate minister, Graham Stuart, who left the conference yesterday, came back (though this was always the plan, a spokesperson for Rishi Sunak says). The crucial language has been toughened up, and includes a reference to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems” – but countries now have to decide whether this change is enough for them, a process that will take a while. So far, the reviews are mixed.

You can follow the very latest on the live blog here. The Guardian’s biodiversity correspondent, Patrick Greenfield, has been reporting from the summit in Dubai for the last two weeks – I spoke with him about the key developments at Cop28 and what the latest draft of the agreement tells us. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: The language has changed. Is it enough?

Yesterday, Patrick said, “the mood was not good.” The watered down language of the previous draft had left many at the summit bewildered and angry. “It was wishy-washy and the impression it left was that moving away from fossil fuels is optional, even though it is the primary driver of the climate crisis,” Patrick adds.

The expectation was that the text would include clear language on measures to phase-out or phase-down “unabated” fossil fuels. Instead, the draft laid out a set of eight options countries could take, “that could include” reducing fossil fuels – making the transition away from fossil fuels seem optional. The last day of the conference, countries clashed over the wording, as some tried desperately to make it more ambitious, and mandate the gradual elimination of fossil fuels.

“Taking a step back, this is life and death for some countries, especially Pacific Islands states, and the next decade is crucial for them,” says Patrick. “If the world does not get this right, then it is accepting that we’re going to see more extreme consequences that disproportionately impact the poorest people in the world.”

The old draft was described as a “death certificate” by a representative for the Alliance of Small Island States, who said that they would not be agreeing to anything that did not have “strong commitments on phasing out fossil fuels”.

Has the new draft improved things?

So what about today? The latest draft has gone some way to address the big concerns. The response so far has been mixed, although many delegates are still digesting what it says. One of the Guardian’s correspondents at the summit, Nina Lakhani, writes that the overall consensus is that “the new global stocktake draft text is a significant improvement on the last”. However, the lack of commitment to “phase-down” or “phase-out” fossil fuels is still cause for concern for many representatives who were hoping for stronger language.

“The primary question now is: will it be enough for the small island states that are fighting for their survival? Can Saudi Arabia and other petro-states stomach this or will they not tolerate language on fossil fuels?” Patrick said this morning. “There has never been language on fossil fuels like this before in the history of Cops, so if it goes through it will be historic. But is it enough to limit warming to 1.5C?”

Arguments have been made that the merest mention of fossil fuels should be seen as something of a victory. Two years ago, at Cop26 in Glasgow, there was a reference to the need to “phase-down unabated coal power” – with no mention of fossil fuels generally. But, after a year of record-breaking climate disasters, there is not much time left to tinker around the edges.

The changing language

Critics of the initial draft said that fuel dependent countries, including Saudi Arabia, India and Russia, wielded their influence to remove any language that underscores the need to end the use of fossil fuels. Though there is truth to this sentiment, Patrick has cautioned against focusing attention solely on these countries: “It is politically useful ​​for other parties to point to ‘petro-states’ in the Middle East as the primary barrier to these talks. It’s important to remember that America has produced more oil than any other country has ever produced in the history of humanity. Norway is also a massive producer, as is the UK and Canada. We in the west need to clean up our own act on this.”

The new wording, which came out of 36 hours of negotiations, is not considered to be particularly ambitious but it is “a step forward”, said Amos Wemanya, senior advisor at Renewable Energy and Just Transitions at environmental NGO Power Shift Africa. Remarkably, it is the first time a COP summit text has referred unambiguously to all fossil fuels – coal, oil, and gas. The text has also called for a tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and called for the generation of “zero- and low-emission technologies” like “renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies”.

Another key point: Leo Hickman of Carbon Brief points out that the document “calls on” parties to “contribute to the following global efforts” including the transition away from fossil fuels. That phrase has significance, he says: it is the weakest of the various terms used for such messages, with terms like “instructs” and “requests” having much more weight.

Things can still change. Before the end of the summit, there will be a final plenary where countries will convene and formally respond to the new text.

The key developments so far

For years, countries in the global south have been asking for a loss and damage fund to respond to the ever increasing climate disasters they have been facing. In past summits, wealthy countries have not been forthcoming in financing this fund, but they have now finally pledged a combined total of just over $700m (£556m). This was a historic moment and a hard-won victory for many countries, however it also only represents 0.2% of what is needed to address the irreversible losses faced by countries in the global south every year. Critics have said that the amount pledged “pales in comparison to the colossal need for funding”, estimated to be between $100bn and $580bn. The US – the world’s largest oil producer – pledged just $17.5m.

Another key announcement came from Colombia, a country that is heavily reliant on fossil fuel exports, when the president joined an alliance of nations calling for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty to prevent the “omnicide of planet Earth”. “They have basically said we need help finding different economic models and access to capital to build out renewables that might be readily available to countries like the US and UK,” Patrick says.

Causes for optimism

Despite the setbacks over the course of this summit, the primary focus of Cop28 is to “avoid a bad reality”, Patrick says. This process has already contributed to ensuring the planet avoids being on track for five or six degrees of warming, “which is definitely not enough especially when you speak with Pacific Island states and other countries who are already very haunted by what’s going on now. But progress is being made.”

There is still time to stave off the worst effects of the climate crisis and Cop28 is part of an international process that will be implemented locally. “That’s why people are fighting so hard,” Patrick said. “The worst thing that anyone could do is throw the towel. Every fraction of a degree matters.”

For a full breakdown of Cop28 this Thursday, sign up to Down to Earth, our weekly climate newsletter

What else we’ve been reading

• Jonathan Liew’s column about Joey Barton, the former footballer with some extremely misogynistic views about female pundits, is very good on what motivates him – but also on why so many former players end up wearing tinfoil hats of one sort or another. Archie

• 11 black women spoke to the Guardian about their difficulties conceiving their children to help end the silence and stigma around infertility in communities of colour. Nimo

• I totally agree with Kate Abbott that Blue Lights was one of the best TV shows of the year, coming in at No 7 in the Guardian 2023 list: as she writes, it had more in common with The Wire than Line of Duty. Rummage through the rest of the top 50, and follow the countdown to No 1, here. Archie

• “We have a saying back home that goes something like, ‘I’m connected to that person because we broke bread together.’ Food connects people. That’s how we tell these stories”, says Wafa Shami, a chef who grew up in Ramallah but moved to California. In this touching article, Shami and other Palestinian chefs reveal how they use food to remain connected to their home, as Israel’s war in Gaza continues. Nimo

• Opposition leader Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza, who spent years in jail because of her political opinions, is powerfully sceptical about the UK government’s declaration that Rwanda is “safe” for refugees. Archie

Sport

Football | A 70th-minute Kingsley Coman (above) goal for Bayern Munich was enough to defeat Manchester United 1-0 and dump the English side out of the Champions League. Meanwhile, Eddie Nketiah scored for Arsenal in a 1-1 draw with PSV Eindhoven, with both sides already through to the knockout stages.

Football | The England goalkeeper Mary Earps is the overwhelming favourite to succeed her teammate Beth Mead as the BBC Sports Personality of the Year after the announcement by the broadcaster of the six nominees on Tuesday.

Cricket | England batter Tammy Beaumont admits players “feel more anxious” heading into a Test as they prepare to face India in a one-off match at the DY Patil Stadium from Thursday.

The front pages

The Guardian headline is “Sunak avoids major rebellion over Rwanda deportation bill – for now”. It’s a theme dominating many of the papers as the British prime minister gets his bill passed, but faces another vote in January. The Times says “Sunak survives Rwanda revolt but it’s not over yet”. The Mail takes a similar line saying “Sunak sees off the Tory Rwanda rebels … for now”. In the Telegraph it’s “Sunak faces down Rwanda rebels”. The Mirror has “Nightmare after Christmas”, referring to January’s expected vote, as does the i with “Sunak survives Rwanda revolt to set up new year showdown with Tory rebels”. Even the Express warns of possible trouble ahead with the headline “Victory for PM: Mutiny over Rwanda plan fades away … for now”. And in the Financial Times it’s “Sunak heads off rightwing revolt to win vote on Rwanda migration bill”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Little Amal, the 12ft puppet created by Handspring, has become an emblem of the global plight of refugees, travelling thousands of miles and meeting presidents and a pope as well as migrants in cities from Lviv to Guadalajara.

The puppet of a Syrian child travelled along routes across Turkey and Europe that refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and many other countries follow as they flee war, violence and persecution. Her creators imagined Amal as one of tens of thousands of unaccompanied minors and her journey as, simply, a search for her mother.

Since she began her journey Amal has met around a million people on the street, tens of millions more online and her education packs have been downloaded from walkwithamal.org all over the world. She has also raised just shy of £800,000 which will be distributed to organisations that support refugees.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.

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