The full force of our Ottawa bureau explains everything we can about the budget. Plus, Jagmeet Singh muses about the Emergencies Act. And Doug Ford tweets a stunt.

Maclean’s Politics Insider
 

But they swear Canada won't *be* broke

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The one thing you need to know about political journalists in Ottawa is we are a pack of people who love government budgets. Every year, we pack into a federal building big enough for a nine-hour lockup—old city hall, in recent years—and mostly gripe about this and that. Our cell phones are in plastic bags politely held hostage by departmental officials. The budget books are so heavy. The catered food, unlike the legendary spread at Queen's Park budgets, is overpriced and under-tasty. But there's a vibe about the place. Budgets are blueprints, and they promise to spend our money, and they matter.

Yesterday's budget lockup was virtual. There was no vibe, though lunch was better. (I ate leftover Chinese food from New Edinburgh's So Good restaurant, the website of which features a sprawling menu, contact information and nothing else). Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled a behemoth—a document that no fewer than two Maclean's journalists called a tome in our reporting. Here's what we found worth telling you about. If you're looking for non-budget news, keep reading to the end.

Paul Wells on a 'middling' budget: Our senior writer remarked that Freeland's first budget marks a return to "standard operating procedure" for governments. That is, what's in the document is what you should expect to see in a plan to pull a country out a generational crisis when it has the money to spend and a bunch of expensive priorities. But Wells reserves a degree of skepticism about what'll actually come of this grand exercise.

I’m not sure we’ll be talking about any of this in two years. Previous depositories of the Prime Minister’s enthusiasm—pharmacare, the Canada Infrastructure Bank, the innovation superclusters—are now mired in delay or indifference. This Prime Minister didn’t finish a lot of projects in life before he moved to Ottawa, and his inexhaustible affection for new projects will be tested if he keeps the job long enough for this project to become less thrilling.

The path out of the pandemic: This is a big-spending budget for a big-spending era. Marie-Danielle Smith tracked down all the biggest-ticket items—wage subsidies, hiring programs, recovery benefits, national child care, student loan relief, training and apprenticeship, and a lot, lot, lot more. The creative types at the Department of Finance produced new fictional characters who each personified a policy. Tim's business has, for example, suffered. Maria has been out of work.

As they try to sell this budget—this catalogue for what Canadians can expect if they elect another Liberal government—Freeland and her colleagues will need to find a way to project the document’s own optimistic tone about our path to the other side. Even while much of the country is locked down, they must try to convince the in-the-flesh Tims and Marias of the world that this is almost over. They may find a willing audience.

The steep fiscal price of recovery: In her speech, Freeland acknowledged the obvious question. Can Canada actually afford to spend so darn much? Her answer was yes, and the budget docs shed some light on how the feds can finance so many billion-with-a-b spending priorities. For one, we're collectively sending way more money to Ottawa than Ottawa anticipated:

Last year, the feds expected to collect $1.3 trillion in personal income tax before the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year. A stronger-than-expected recovery added $46.3 billion to that haul in this budget’s projections. The Canada Revenue Agency can expect another $33 billion in corporate income tax over that period, too. The feds are also expecting to collect more GST and benefit from stronger crown corporation performance. That unanticipated revenue, combined with readjusted CERB projections, cuts $35.4 billion out of the 2020-21 deficit alone.

A massive, historic, costly bet on child care: The big bet in this year's budget was on child care. Freeland acknowledged that Liberals have been attempting to create a national program for five decades. This time, she said, they're serious. They can't pull it off without some good old fashioned federalism, though, and there remain many lacking details on how the five-year, $30-billion program will get off the ground. Shannon Proudfoot cuts through the rhetoric.

The budget described this undertaking as being “on a scale with the work of previous generations of Canadians, who built a public school system and public health care,” adding, “This is a legacy investment for today’s children who will not only benefit from, but also inherit this system.” But the government pre-emptively warns that this won’t come together overnight. Freeland underlined this: “This is not an effort that will deliver instant gratification. We are building something that, of necessity, must be constructed collaboratively, and for the long-term.”

Shipwrecks and yacht taxes: 10 things you might have missed: History buffs will be gratified to see several million bucks thrown at semi-urgent efforts to preserve HMS Erebus and HMS Terror, the sunken ships of the lost Franklin expedition. The kinds of people who buy big boats and private airplanes will take note of new taxes proposed for those purchases. Marie-Danielle Smith reminds us that there's more to budgets than straight-up fiscal planning.

Budgets aren’t just budgets. They are governments’ biggest annual opportunities to flaunt big-ticket programs, throw money into the eventual goals of a post-election future and cast favour upon as many disparate groups as possible, all in an effort to make themselves as shiny and re-electable as possible. Going beyond pandemic-era policies and headline items, we found a few of the odd, symbolic and underrated investments on offer.

20 ways the budget could hit your wallet: This one's always a big hit. Sure, budgets are all about the big picture, and long-term vision, and the future of the country. But we know what you're asking: What's in it for me? Prajakta Dhopade combed through Budget 2021 so you don't have to.

Wage-ing politics: The Liberals pledged to increase the minimum wage for federally regulated workers to $15 an hour. If that promise sounds familiar, that's probably because the NDP campaigned on the same increase in 2015. The New Dems took heat at the time for making it sound like millions would benefit. But in this budget, the Liberals swiped the identical idea—and claim 26,000 workers would see the hike. The party might consider pulling down an old website attacking the proposal.

Random draw of the day: Far away from Ottawa, Yukoners watched as the final seat in their legislature was decided by random draw. The Vuntut Gwitchin seat held by Health Minister Pauline Frost—the same remote region that threw a fireworks display for COVID immunizers—was tied at 78 votes apiece after the election. So it all came down to pulling a name out of a box. And the NDP's Annie Blake came out the winner. The territory's Liberal and Yukon parties are now tied at eight seats apiece , with New Democrats carrying three districts. Premier Sandy Silver remains in charge—for now.

If you just got off a plane, check this list: Health Canada is proactively updating a list of domestic and international flights on which at least one passenger has tested positive for COVID-19. The registry identifies three rows on either side of COVID-positive passengers. The department flagged 15 rows on a Boeing 777 flight from New Delhi, India, to Vancouver on April 16. And at least eight domestic flights on that date carried the virus.

Stunt of the day: Ontario Premier Doug Ford wasn't kidding when he said he was reaching out to international consulates in search of spare vaccines. The premier tweeted a photo of an apparent phone call with Melita Gabrič, the European Union's ambassador to Canada. Worth noting: Canada has administered more doses per 100 people than the EU, and is also inoculating at a faster clip per day.

—Nick Taylor-Vaisey

 
 

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Budget 2021: 20 ways it could affect your wallet

Worker benefit extensions, promises of affordable child care, a federal minimum wage hike and more