What’s going on here?

The latest US jobs report hit desks on Friday, and its figures suggest the market’s fighting fairly fit.

What does this mean?

The US added 143,000 new jobs in January. That’s a little less than expected – but, at the same time, figures from previous months were nudged around 100,000 higher in total. Plus, the average hourly wage increased by a tidy 4.1% over the last year. Adding to the pros, unemployment is down to 4% and layoffs are near historic lows – although the rate of hiring is slowing. Here’s the but: despite signs of the job market stabilizing, new government policies – from immigration crackdowns to tariffs and deregulation decisions – could easily throw things in either direction.

Why should I care?

For markets: You can’t rush perfection.

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5% at its last meeting. And with the job market holding steady, at least for now, there’s no reason to doubt the central bank’s decision to hold off. Traders aren’t expecting to see a rate cut until July now. Plus, they’re putting the chance of another cut by year-end at 60% – down from 70% before the report.

The bigger picture: r/WallStreetBets is on fire.

Retail investors are more optimistic than ever. In fact, measures of their sentiment have hit record highs. That’s right: they’re more gung ho than during the meme-stock frenzy of 2021. So despite high levels of political uncertainty, retail investors are the most exposed to single stocks since 1997. And they’re still shopping, pouring over $4 billion into stocks last week. Clearly, investors weren’t deterred by the tech stock selloff – including Nvidia’s 17% drop – after DeepSeek rattled the AI scene. But with allocations at multi-decade highs, the real test of their nerves will come if the “buy the dip” philosophy stops working…

What’s going on here?

India cut interest rates for the first time in five years, desperate to stop its powerhouse of an economy from taking a break.

What does this mean?

India boasts one of the world’s fastest-growing economies – and that’s a flex the country would like to continue. But recent data has signaled that folk are spending less, and the government now predicts its economy will grow just 6.4% this financial year. Down from 8.2% the year before, that would be the weakest growth in four years. So, determined to turn that trend around, India’s central bank voted unanimously to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point – to 6.25% as was widely expected.

Why should I care?

Zooming out: India’s a victim of its own success.

India’s economy is still picking up at an impressive pace. But here’s the thing: investors have come to expect that. It’s why they’ve piled into the country’s stocks, sending up their prices in the process. So if Indian companies find themselves with less wind in their sales, economically speaking, they could struggle to live up to lofty expectations. That could explain why investors have left the main Indian stock index sitting flat this year, after pushing it up 90% over the last five years.

The bigger picture: Predict the unpredictable – and then some.

Economists think there’s probably another cut coming, but don’t go betting the house on it. Right now, India’s central bank has to try and predict outcomes in a period marked by uncertainty. The US has been threatening to stamp tariffs left, right, and center, putting the money countries make from exports into question and making trade wars more likely. Plus, with many investors now moving their money elsewhere, India’s currency is weakening – and that could easily be exacerbated by lower interest rates.