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Kamala Pulls Ahead on Polymarket |
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris now has a seven-point lead over Donald Trump on Polymarket, after flipping the prediction market odds on Aug. 9 and tying the day before. "Yes" shares for Harris were trading at 52 cents on the crypto-based betting platform Monday during U.S. morning hours, meaning the market sees a 52% chance she will win the presidency. Each share pays out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades at par with the U.S. dollar, if the prediction comes true, and zero if not. Trump shares were changing hands at 45 cents. Less than a month ago, before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, Trump's odds were as high as 72%. Current levels put Harris at a premium when compared to polling aggregates. Real Clear Polling's average of polls has Harris with a 0.5 percentage point lead. Some mainstream polls still have Trump ahead: A poll sponsored by Harvard conducted at the end of July gives Trump a four percentage point lead, while CNBC's latest poll that surveyed up until Aug. 4 has Trump with a two-point lead, and Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports gives Trump a five-point advantage. |
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Dragonfly and Crypto.com Lobby CFTC |
Dragonfly Digital Management and Crypto.com have joined crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) in criticizing the Commodities Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) proposed rules on prediction markets. Critics say that the CFTC's proposed rules broadly categorize and ban certain event contracts, including those related to gaming – with Coinbase calling the CFTC's proposed definition of gaming too ambiguous – and elections, raising concerns that this overreach exceeds statutory authority, stifles innovation, and neglects the economic benefits these contracts provide. "Political event contracts should not be equated with gambling on games of chance like the Super Bowl. Rather, elections have significant economic implications," Dragonfly's Jessica Furr and Bryan Edelman, its counsel, wrote in a letter to CFTC. "These contracts were designed to serve crucial risk hedging functions, aligning with the requirements of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and offer valuable predictive data to the public." Dragonfly also argues that the CFTC's proposed rule overreaches by broadly banning prediction markets without proper evaluation, especially given the Supreme Court's recent "Chevron" decision, which limits the agency's interpretive authority without a Congressional mandate. Crypto.com's Steve Humenik, its Special Vice President in charge of Capital Markets, argues that the CFTC's attempt to ban prediction markets violates a rulemaking process dictated by the CEA, which involves a three-step approach. According to the CEA, the three-step process requires the CFTC to assess whether a contract involves an excluded commodity, whether it engages in specified activities, and whether it's contrary to the public interest before banning it. "The CFTC must articulate its justification for determining that a given contract has an underlying excluded commodity. This should not be a foregone conclusion," Humenik wrote. "We urge the CFTC not to sidestep its obligations to undergo a three-step review process with respect to these types of event contracts, and to eliminate this aspect of the Event Contracts NOPR [notice of proposed rulemaking]." |
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Tether to Fight Celsius 'Takedown' |
Tether, the company behind USDT, the world's largest stablecoin by market capitalization, said it will defend itself against what it called "shakedown" litigation brought by bankrupt crypto lender Celsius. On Friday, Celsius asked the U.S. Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of New York to order Tether to relinquish a total of 57,428.64 bitcoin (BTC) or award the "present value of all Bitcoin," some $3.3 billion at today's price, according to a court filing. "This lawsuit incredibly now seeks the return of approximately US$2.4 billion worth of BTC from Tether, despite the BTC being liquidated at Celsius’ direction and with Celsius’ consent at June 2022 prices," Tether said in a statement on its website. Tether did not say how it calculated the $2.4 billion figure. The case concerns a loan agreement between Celsius and Tether that allowed Celsius to borrow stablecoins "to operate certain critical aspects of its business," according to the lawsuit. In the filing, Celsius alleges that when the market crashed in mid-2022, in the "ninety-day period prior" to Celsius' bankruptcy filing, Tether insulated itself from the impending bankruptcy by making "preferential and fraudulent transfers" of bitcoin. |
Layer-1 blockchain Canto has been offline since Saturday following a "consensus issue." The CANTO token initially dropped by 21%, before recovering over the course of the weekend. Data from Etherscan shows that three transactions were processed on Aug. 10 and no activity has taken place since then. "Canto chain is currently experiencing an issue with consensus that has caused the chain to halt," Canto said in an announcement on X. "An upgrade to address this issue will be carried out on Monday, August 12 UTC 12:00. All funds are safe. Once the chain resumes, users will be able to access all activities as usual." Canto experienced a period of explosive growth after going live in August last year, and total value locked (TVL) surged to more than $200 million in March as investors flocked to a series of DeFi services like lending, staking and liquidity provision. On-chain activity has rapidly subsided since then, with TVL dropping to just $13.7 million, according to DefiLlama. The CANTO token is also down by 83% since May 24. |
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