Good morning from Brussels.

Russia’s Christmas Day attack on Estlink-2, a 170-kilometer-long power cable linking Finland and Estonia, was not a coincidence in terms of timing. 

Some in Brussels estimated it was another war of provocation against NATO countries. 

However, Euractiv’s Aurélie Pugnet and Nikolaus Kurmayer report that the issue goes deeper, and to understand Moscow’s real motives, one must look back to the Soviet Union’s tactics. 

In February, the Kremlin’s strategy toward the Baltics will face a critical reality check. 

NATO chief Mark Rutte repeated on Monday that governments should reallocate money from welfare to defence. He also called for European industry to cooperate more closely with their US counterparts, a proposal that goes against the French position.

In the energy field, a letter seen by Euractiv suggests that a coalition of six northern European countries wants the EU to push for a more severe international price cap on Russian oil within the G7 framework.

Meanwhile, in agriculture, the return of foot-and-mouth disease in livestock is keeping the EU on high alert. 

PARIS

Prime Minister François Bayrou is negotiating to ensure the neutrality of a section of the left ahead of a landmark speech on Tuesday, as a no-confidence vote looms over a French government once again. Read more.

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BERLIN

Berlin's agricultural global forum shines spotlight on bioeconomy. This year's high-profile Global Forum for Food and Agriculture (GFFA) in Berlin, which starts on Wednesday, will focus on sustainable biomass, a key buzzword for the EU’s agricultural sector in 2025. Read more.

LONDON

Starmer makes U-turn on AI and adopts pro-innovation approach. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is making a U-turn on AI. After Labour scrapped the Conservative government’s computing investments, it now vows to increase public computing twentyfold by 2030 as part of its pro-innovation strategy. Read more.

MADRID

As Spaniards worry about access to affordable housing, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced a tax crackdown on foreigners who purchase a second home in the sun and owners who rent to tourists. Read more.

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ROME

Security bill returns to Senate as protests shake Italy. Italy was rocked by protests over the weekend, prompting gthe overnment to call for a quick approval of the controversial Security Bill, a cornerstone of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government that has divided opposition, the Council of Europe and families of victims of mafia and terrorist attacks. Read more.

Incoming US President Donald Trump has stepped up his ambitions to buy Greenland as Republican lawmakers introduced a bill to the House of Representatives, provocatively called the Make Greenland Great Again Act. Read more.

Northern EU countries seek to slash Russian oil profits. A coalition of six northern European countries wants the EU to push for a more severe international price cap on Russian oil within the G7 framework, according to a letter seen by Euractiv. Read more.

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STOCKHOLM

War and Peace. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson declared Sweden in a state of 'neither peace nor war' when speaking at Sweden's annual defence and security forum in Sälen, western Sweden, on Monday. He also highlighted hybrid threats from Russia 'and other state actors, as evidenced by recent attacks on undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.

Defence Minister Pål Jonson stressed the need for Europe to strengthen its defences in the face of shifting US priorities and urged that increased budgets be translated into real military capabilities, as the country is on track to reach 2.4% of GDP in defence spending. (Charles Szumski | Euractiv.com)

Sweden’s race to develop drone ‘swarm’ tech. Sweden will test new software it has developed to coordinate up to 100 drones in so-called "swarms" as Russia's war in Ukraine gives rise to new battlefield tactics. Read more.

BRATISLAVA

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacted swiftly to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico's invitation to come to Slovakia for talks on gas transit, inviting Fico to Ukraine instead. Read more.

Slovakia's empty threats to stop emergency power aid to Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico's latest threats to stop emergency aid to Ukraine's electricity grid are legally dubious and would have little impact. Read more.

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WARSAW

Gazprom-linked company supplies gas to Warsaw buses. A company owned by Russian nationals and linked to Gazprom has become a supplier to the Municipal Bus Company (MZA) in Warsaw, providing gas for part of the city's bus fleet, Polish media report. Read more.

SOFIA

Bulgaria hopes to join US visa waiver programme in 2026. Bulgaria aims to meet all US requirements to join the visa-free travel programme as early as 2026, the Foreign Ministry told Euractiv. Read more.

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BUCHAREST 

Romania’s Social Democrats to test public support for coalition candidate. Romania's ruling coalition is working on a strategy to defeat pro-Russian independent candidate Călin Georgescu, the unexpected winner of the first round of last year's presidential election, which was annulled by the Constitutional Court. Read more.

Romanian MEP mocked for returning from Maduro inauguration empty-handed. Romanian bloggers mocked far-right MEP Diana Șoșoacă for attending Nicolás Maduro's inauguration without getting a proper picture with him. Read more.

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BELGRADE 

US tells Serbia to zero out Russian ownership of largest national oil company. To avoid US sanctions, Serbia should completely remove Russian ownership of the National Oil Company of Serbia (NOCS), the country's largest energy company, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien said. Read more.

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• EU: Commission Vice President Teresa Ribera meets with European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries (EPFIA);
• Vice President Henna Virkkunen attends Baltic Sea NATO countries Summit in Helsinki, Finland;
• Vice President Roxana Mînzatu hosts European Labour Authority (ELA) Executive Director Cosmin Boiangiu; Meets with European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) delegation;
• Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos receives Head of Turkish Mission to EU Faruk Kaymakci;
• Sustainable Transport and Tourism Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas meets with European Authority for Aviation Safety; Hosts European Aviation Environmental Report launch
• Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque meets with European Banking Authority Chairperson Jose Manuel Campa.

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Martina Monti, Alice Taylor-Braçe]