🚢 The shipping night-Maersk

What’s going on here?

Arm showed off tidy results on Wednesday, but investors were more impressed with the company that the chip designer’s been keeping.

What does this mean?

It takes a village to rear high-tech semiconductors from fledgling sketches to strong, sculpted specimens. Arm takes on the early days, designing the chips and licensing the blueprints, usually for the smartphone industry. That was risky business last year, when rising prices forced even the most tech-curious shoppers to prioritize groceries and rent over snazzy upgrades. And yet, Arm managed to make more profit last quarter than analysts expected, even piquing investors’ interest by suggesting that the smartphone industry is back on the up. The real kicker, though, was Arm’s reminder that AI-focused chipmakers will be using its blueprints, a development that’s predicted to pull revenue 15% above analysts’ expectations to roughly $900 million. Investors more than matched that upgrade, pushing Arm’s stock up over 50%.

Why should I care?

For markets: The more the merrier.

Arm’s piggy bank pings every time a chipmaker produces and sells a licensed design, so there’s no reason to stay exclusive. The chip designer has built up quite the Rolodex of connections in the smartphone sector, but anyone who’s anyone is hanging out in the AI squad these days. Well, Arm clearly has the gift of the gab, successfully buddying up to “it” firms like Nvidia and Microsoft.

The bigger picture: Chips, hold the dip.

So far, Nvidia has hogged most of the business in the AI space. But with more major companies rolling out high-tech initiatives, and smaller startups looking to take them on, there could be more than enough of a bounty to share among a few capable chip designers and producers. At the same time, if recessions stay at bay, shoppers will be more likely to splash out on gizmos and gadgets. This year, then, could be one to remember for the chip industry.

What’s going on here?

Maersk’s results, outlook, and buyback decision all disappointed analysts, but at least the Danish shipping giant can blame the world for its woes.

What does this mean?

Stormy waters, high winds, and circling sharks are just a day in the office for shipping companies. Global economic slowdowns and attacks in the Red Sea, not so much. While Maersk can stack twenty-foot containers like the best of them, it can’t do much about a lack of global trade – a result of thinly spread economies watching their spare change – or a majorly inconvenient no-go zone. So with the cost of taking longer but safer routes eating into the limited money Maersk brings in, the company expects to make anywhere between $1 and $6 billion in profit this year. That wide range hardly exudes confidence, and even the upper limit – just two-thirds of last year’s takings – only matches analysts’ expectations. So when Maersk topped it all off by suspending its buyback, which might’ve buoyed up the company’s shares, investors sent the stock down nearly 15%.

Why should I care?

For markets: Oh ship.

Shipping companies aren’t completely at the whim of the world, of course. Even if they’re tasked with fewer loads of cargo, they can charge more for the limited supply they do deliver. But don’t count on the corporate customers to front the cost: they’ll pass that buffer onto shoppers, a chain that could take inflation back out of central banks’ reach.

The bigger picture: Time is a healer.

War, pandemics, and international stand-offs could make the hardiest news reader want to take a break from the headlines. So when money’s on the line, it’s understandable that investors turn flighty too. Thing is, even major setbacks tend to resolve themselves over time. And if not, money-hungry companies have a knack for making sure business goes on anyway, tinkering with their production schedules, prices, or suppliers to keep the books on balance.