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Tuesday, January 21, 2025
64 days until Opening Day ... 
There are still a few big names left out there – Alex Bregman, Jack Flaherty, and Pete Alonso, most notably – but with Anthony Santander and Tanner Scott finally signing and Roki Sasaki coming to a decision, most of the most important decisions for this offseason have been made. 
Santander went across the border (and the AL East) to join the Blue Jays, a move that gives them a much-needed power bat and will see Santander likely hitting behind a very good top of the order for the Blue Jays, so he should remain a solid (if one-dimensional) slugger for Fantasy. 
Scott's move is a little less obvious, joining a stacked Dodgers bullpen with several viable closer options. But given the money invested here – $72 million over four years, one of the biggest contracts for a reliever in league history – it seems safe to assume he's got a leg up for the job. And he handled it ably – if not consistently – over the past three years, primarily with the Marlins. Scott has pretty iffy command, which wasn't an issue when he was in Miami, but could be one with Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, and Evan Phillips around as viable alternatives. Scott can be dominant, and a 40-save season with the Dodgers isn't totally out of the question. But I'm not going to be the one who takes a closer with control as shaky as his as high as Scott is likely to go – he'll be outside of my personal top-150 overall. 
Of course, the big news here is that Roki Sasaki signed with the Dodgers, an outcome many expected (and feared). But the thing about this signing is, I'm not actually sure it's great news for Sasaki's Fantasy value – and I think he was already being overvalued. 
Sasaki is an incredible prospect, one I do expect will be one of the best pitchers in MLB at some point. But he's also a 23-year-old who has never pitched in MLB, who has missed a decent amount of time with injuries over the past few seasons, and saw a two-mph drop in fastball velocity last season while pitching in Japan. And, as Scott White noted in his breakdown of the signing, he signed with the team that is most well-equipped to get the most out of him, yes, but also that is most well-equipped to limit him when needed. 
Sasaki will pitch in a six-man rotation almost exclusively, limiting the impact of his innings, so they'll need to be extremely good innings. And they might be, but I don't see a huge reason to assume he'll definitely be better than, say, Tyler Glasnow, another pitcher with significant workload and injury concerns who is already proven to be one of the best pitchers in MLB. Sasaki might get there, but seeing as how the upside is capped in year one, I don't see any reason to bet on him being a top-20 SP in Fantasy – and that's what his price suggests these days. 
Sasaki is more like a top-36 SP for me, and one I wouldn't take inside of the top 100 in my drafts. If he falls to me, great – I'm sure having him on my team is going to be a blast at times. But with how deep pitching is right now, I just don't see the point in paying up for him. I'll just wait 100 or so picks and take Jackson Jobe
Now, if we're looking long-term, well, there's nobody who hasn't debuted in MLB yet who you would rather have, as Scott White's 2025 top prospect rankings show. And today, we're going to spend the rest of the newsletter going through the top prospects Scott expects to make an impact in 2025. Sasaki is at the top, but he shouldn't be the only prospect drafted this season. 
Pencil them in for Opening Day
Unless something goes really wrong, these four are breaking camp and will be part of the Opening Day plan. 
1. Roki Sasaki, SP, Dodgers
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: Japan
NPB stats: 10-5, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 111 IP, 32 BB, 129 K
Sasaki isn't arriving as the finished product Yoshinobu Yamamoto was, but at 23, that's to be expected. He was thought to be a prodigy in Japan, reaching triple digits with his fastball while dominating with what may be the world's best splitter, a true 80 grade offering  that simply vanishes as it crosses the plate. While it's possible to overrate him in redraft leagues, that's less the case in Dynasty.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: .270 BA (397 AB), 13 HR, 25 SB, .792 OPS, 36 BB, 92 K
Major-league stats: .219 BA (119 AB), 3 HR, 12 SB, .641 OPS, 11 BB, 26 K
The second pick in the 2023 draft was presumed to be on the fast track, and the Nationals decided they didn't need to wait for his production to catch up to his favorable exit velocities and plate discipline readings, introducing him as their right fielder in late August. If nothing else, that late-season stint showed us Crews isn't shy about stealing bases, which should keep him usable even as he works to optimize the angles the ball takes off his bat.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: .314 BA (226 AB), 11 HR, 16 SB, .880 OPS, 22 BB, 50 K
Major-league stats: .179 BA (56 AB), 2 HR, 5 SB, .617 OPS, 11 BB, 19 K
Dominguez's return to the majors late last season was a far cry from his 2023 debut, which may come as a concern given that he had Tommy John surgery in between, but his time in the minors showed he's no worse for wear. He still shined in every respect there, delivering his usual power and speed, and seeing as the Yankees have freed up left field for him, they must trust him to make the remaining adjustments in the majors.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
93. Hyeseong Kim, 2B, Dodgers
Age (on opening day): 26
Where he played in 2024: Korea
KBO stats: .326 BA (509 AB), 11 HR, 30 SB, .841 OPS, 47 BB, 62 K
Kim earns a spot here because he's in line to play every day for the Dodgers, and if he hits well enough to remain in that role, he'll be useful in a Nico Hoerner sort of way, providing ample stolen bases and a not-unhelpful number of runs scored. But that's a big "if." As promising as his KBO stats are,  Ha-seong Kim and Jung Hoo Lee had even better numbers there and have struggled to make an impact with the bat so far.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
Fighting this spring
These guys all need something(s) to go right to make the Opening Day roster, but as we saw with guys like Wyatt Langford and Jackson Chourio last season, things can (and do!) happen. I would give Shaw, Campbell, and Jobe the best chance of making things happen. 
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .291 BA (454 AB), 18 HR, 21 SB, .894 OPS, 79 BB, 127 K
Anthony's massive power display  at the first annual Futures Skills Showcase last summer was a coronation of sorts, bringing to fruition all the optimism generated by his exit velocity readings, and he followed through by hitting .353 with eight homers and a 1.022 OPS in 52 games thereafter. A reduction in strikeout rate coincided with this breakthrough, only further bolstering his claim as the top-hitting prospect in baseball.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
3. Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .284 BA (443 AB), 21 HR, 31 SB, .867 OPS, 62 BB, 95 K
After overcoming a slow start last year to hit .318 with 18 homers, 21 steals, and a .959 OPS in his final 80 games, Shaw is now set to take over as the Cubs' third baseman, a move precipitated by the inclusion of  Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker deal. The majority of his batted balls go to the opposite field, giving him a sturdy batting average base to go with his power and speed.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
4. Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .330 BA (430 AB), 20 HR, 24 SB, .997 OPS, 74 BB, 103 K
Campbell showed some hitter-ish qualities at Georgia Tech, convincing the Red Sox to take him with a fourth-round pick in 2023, but it's the work they've put in since then -- adding bat speed and, with it, power -- that's turned him into an absolute masher. His rapid ascent last year has him breathing down the neck of other young infield/outfield options like Vaughn GrissomCeddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, and he figures to blow past them all sooner than later.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
9. Jackson Jobe, SP, Tigers
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 5-3, 2.36 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 91 2/3 IP, 45 BB, 96 K
Major-league stats: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
By the sum of his parts, Jobe is the model pitching prospect, standing out most for the incredible spin rates on his pitches -- four of which grade as 60 or better, according to Baseball America. But he's struggled to stay healthy since the Tigers picked him third overall in 2021, having yet to throw even 100 innings in a season, and also underwhelmed with his strikeout and walk numbers prior to his promotion last year.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: Rookie, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .318 BA (85 AB), 2 HR, 6 SB, .900 OPS, 14 BB, 23 K 
The prospect fatigue has begun to set in for Lawlar, who appeared to be on the verge of becoming the Diamondbacks shortstop two years ago  and surely would be by now if thumb surgery hadn't cost him most of 2024. He showed his usual plate discipline and base-stealing prowess upon returning, but there's still a question as to how much batting average he'll provide given that his power depends on him elevating consistently to his pull side.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
11. Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Triple-A majors
Minor-league stats: .293 BA (358 AB), 25 HR, .964 OPS, 42 BB, 102 K
Major-league stats: .098 BA (41 AB), 0 HR, 4 BB, 22 K
Like teammate Jackson Holliday, who's no longer eligible for prospect rank lists, Mayo's major-league debut was so miserable that it can't help but raise concerns about his future, so the fact he still ranks this high should tell you how special his power is.  Pete Alonso seems like a realistic comp, right down to forecasting Mayo's eventual move to first base. I'll note, though, that a right-handed hitter with such limited defensive utility has a short leash offensively.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
Midseason hopefuls
It would be a real surprise if we saw any of these players in April. It would be mildly shocking if we saw them in May. But June? July? It would be stunning if at least a few of these guys weren't up by then. 
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: did not play -- Tommy John surgery
2022 stats (minors): 6-2, 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 103 2/3 IP, 25 BB, 155 K
Painter had one of the all-time great minor-league pitching seasons in 2022, positioning himself to win a spot in the Phillies rotation as a 19-year-old before Tommy John came to call. His return came this offseason in the Arizona Fall League, which he dominated to the tune of a 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 across six starts, offering hope that he can pick up where he left off once the Phillies fire him up in June (as is their reported plan).
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
12. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: Double-A
Minor-league stats: .307 BA (300 AB), 8 HR, 13 SB, .850 OPS, 30 BB, 66 K
Between a shoulder impingement in 2023 and a lumbar strain in 2024, Mayer's numbers the past couple years have left Dynasty leaguers wanting. But during that time, he's added exit velocity while reducing strikeouts, continuing to earn high marks from evaluators. He's shaping up to have a hit-over-power profile, which lends itself to Bo Bichette and  Xander Bogaerts comps (let's say the pre-2024 version of both).
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
13. Travis Bazzana, 2B, Guardians
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: High-A
Minor-league stats: .238 BA (101 AB), 3 HR, 5 SB, .765 OPS, 17 BB, 31 K
Bazzana's professional debut wasn't a flawless one, but the profile remains near-flawless for the top pick in the 2024 draft, highlighted by strong swing decisions, plus exit velocities and opportunistic baserunning. The decision to move on from Andres Gimenez this offseason would seem to suggest that the Guardians expect Bazzana to take flight this year, and it wouldn't be the shock of all shocks if he made a push in spring training.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
15. Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .278 BA (479 AB), 19 HR, 10 SB, .790 OPS, 46 BB, 112 K
Basallo's 2024 was a step back from his massive 2023 that saw him slash .313/.402/.551 across three levels, but the contact quality was still exemplary for a 19-year-old, allowing him to ascend to Triple-A by season's end. His bat is ahead of his glove, which may be for the best since he isn't displacing Adley Rutschman behind the plate. Catcher is no place to put a Yordan Alvarez-caliber masher anyway.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: Rookie, Low-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .280 BA (157 AB), 9 HR, 9 SB, 1.026 OPS, 51 BB, 62 K
Rodriguez's strikeout rate has always been dangerously high, but it's less a result of him chasing than never chasing, unwilling to swing at anything he can't throttle. Fortunately, he throttles the ball often enough that his production has held steady as he's moved up the ladder, relieving concerns that his approach will falter against more advanced pitching. The on-base skills (a .422 mark for his entire career) give him a higher margin for error as well.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
 
 
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