| | | | Thursday, September 7, 2023 | | We're here. It's been seven months since the last real NFL game, and eight months since we last locked our Fantasy lineups, and I can hardly believe the season is actually here. | | Of course, even Week 1 isn't safe from injury concerns, and that starts tonight with the Chiefs and Lions kicking the season off. Travis Kelce's knee injury did end up being as minor as the most optimistic reports indicated, but we still don't know if he's going to play -- he didn't practice Wednesday but is still listed as "questionable" on the injury report. | | If you ask me, I'd bet he doesn't play, but my opinion doesn't matter in this one. So, make sure you're paying attention to reports throughout today, because the last thing you need is to get taken by surprise. | | Just a heads up, but we're doing things a bit differently this season in the FFT Newsletter, by the way. In year's past, I've always done a quick Thursday Night Football preview in the Thursday newsletter, with the rest of my game previews coming out on Friday, but I'd decided to move those previews up to Thursday, so you've got my thoughts on every game before the first lineup locks. The downside is, I don't have as much injury information when I write this on Wednesdays, but I figure that's worth having more information when you set your lineups tonight. I hope so, anyway. | | Of course, it's not just my opinion you should be looking for. Before we get to my Week 1 previews, here's everything you need to set your lineup from the entire FFT team: | | Week 1 Start 'Em and Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WRStarts, sits and sleepers for every gameWeek 1 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE Jamey, Dave, Heath's RankingsMy Week 1 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | | And now, here are my previews for every Week 1 game, including the latest injuries plus the toughest lineup dilemma for each: | | | 🔍Week 1 Game Previews
| | There's something to watch in every game on the NFL schedule every week, even if you have to squint to see it sometimes. This week, however, there are so many unanswered questions that it's hard to settle on just one thing for each game. Here's a look ahead at every Week 1 game, with some notes on what Vegas is expecting to see, some lineup help and one thing to watch for from each game: | | All odds are via SportsLine's consensus odds. | | Lions at Chiefs | | Thursday, 8:20 p.m.Line: Chiefs -4.5; 52.5 O/U Implied totals: Chiefs 28.5, Lions 24 | | Patrick Mahomes still put up huge numbers without Tyreek Hill last season. We might find out this week what life looks like without Travis Kelce, too. | | Toughest lineup decision: There are a lot of ways you could go in this one, which is kind of interesting, given how much we like these offenses. But there's one name in particular you might be wondering about ... Noah Gray -- Sit. Look, would it surprise me if Gray caught a touchdown this week? Not at all. But even if Kelce doesn't play, I'm not sure we have much reason to think Gray is going to be a weapon -- among 33 tight ends who ran at least 250 routes last season, Gray was 32nd in targets per route run and 28th in yards per route run. If Kelce is out, he enters the touchdown-or-bust glob of No. 2 tight ends, but I still think I'd rather start Sam LaPorta on the other side of this one. Injuries to watch: Kelce was unable to practice Wednesday but is still listed as questionable. I'd be pretty surprised if he played just two days after leaving practice with a knee injury, but there's a chance. You're starting him if he does, though there's obviously some risk. The good news is, there's plenty of time to pivot if he's ruled out. He's the only relevant name on either team's injury report, thankfully. | | | | Panthers at Falcons | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Falcons -4.5; 40 O/UImplied totals: Falcons 21.75, Panthers 18.25 | | We're getting our first looks at Bryce Young and Bijan Robinson here. Expectations are much higher for Robinson, but what the rest of this Falcons offense will look like with Desmond Ridder as the full-time starter remains kind of a mystery. | Toughest lineup decision: Drake London -- Start . London is by no means a must-start WR for me -- I'm ranking him 30th, right around where he ranked in my preseason projections. I'm not 100% sure how to project the target shares for him and Pitts -- they had the same number of targets last season before Pitts' injury. If the Falcons up their pass rate and Ridder is even passable, both Pitts and London could be must-start guys, but I'm only viewing Pitts as one for Week 1, only because of how much lower the bar is at tight end. Injuries to watch: The Panthers WR corps is pretty beat up right now, with DJ Chark sitting out Wednesday's practice with a hamstring injury, while Adam Thielen (ankle) and Terrace Marshall (back) were both limited. I wasn't high on Jonathan Mingo as a prospect, but this could be setting up well for him to play a significant role early.
| | | | Bengals at Browns | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Bengals -2.5; 47.5 O/UImplied totals: Bengals 25, Brown 22.5 | | Joe Burrow declared himself ready to go after his preseason calf injury, answering the biggest question on either side. There are still some questions to be answered beyond that -- whether Deshaun Watson can bounce back being the biggest one -- but Burrow's status is settled, at least. | Toughest lineup decision: Elijah Moore - Sit. You're starting Amari Cooper and both Bengals WRs. You're starting Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon. You're probably starting David Njoku , too. Moore is the only question mark, really, and I'd prefer to sit him out. He went late enough that he should be more like a bench piece for you, and while I'm intrigued by all the preseason talk about how the Browns are going to use him in different ways, a rib injury cost him some reps and didn't really give us a chance to see what they have planned for him. I have high hopes, but I want to see it first. Injuries to watch: Burrow was able to practice in full Wednesday and is expected to return from his calf injury. Ultimately, while that injury looked concerning, it'll only end up costing him practice time, it appears.
| | Jaguars at Colts | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Jaguars -5; 45 O/UImplied totals: Jaguars 25, Colts 20 | | Expectations are sky-high for the Jaguars offense, and they should get off to a fast start in a game they should dominate. However, Anthony Richardson is one of the league's biggest wild cards this season, and his athleticism could take teams by surprise early when they don't have much tape on him. | Toughest lineup decision: Colts -- Sit. It might not be possible to sit them all, but I think you probably should. Deon Jackson is a low-end RB3 if Zack Moss doesn't play, and Moss would be a low-end RB3 if he does. Michael Pittman figures to be the lead option in the passing game, but it wouldn't be a surprise if the Colts don't throw it 20-plus times in Richardson's first start. And while I have high expectations for Richardson himself, as I wrote in my Week 1 QB rankings, I'm probably rolling with one of the high-upside backups like Geno Smith or Kirk Cousins I drafted alongside him. Injuries to watch: Moss' status is the key one we're going to be watching as he works his way back from a broken arm, but he was surprisingly limited Wednesday and wasn't wearing a non-contact jersey, so it looks like he has a real chance. The other one would be Shaquille Leonard , who was able to practice in full as he works his way back from a preseason concussion. The Colts defense can ill afford his absence.
| | Buccaneers at Vikings | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Vikings -6; 45.5 O/UImplied totals: Vikings 25.75, Buccaneers 19.75 | | Expectations for the Buccaneers offense could only be lower in the eyes of the Fantasy community if they were the Cardinals. But I still think there's a chance this offense is better than expected, and going against one of last season's most hopeless defenses could make me look good for at least one week. | Toughest lineup decision: Mike Evans -- Sit. I'm more optimistic than most about the Buccaneers offense, but that's more about Chris Godwin than Evans, who is rightly ranked lower of the two. Evans dealt with a groin injury throughout training camp, and while that may have been a bit of a negotiating tactic as he angles for a new contract, I'd still rather take a wait-and-see approach with him, especially since you might have been able to get Evans as your WR4 by the end of draft season. The matchup is enticing enough to make me at least think twice about it, but I'm leaning toward sitting Evans if I have the luxury. Injuries to watch: There are no Fantasy-relevant injuries to report here.
| | Titans at Saints | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Saints -3; 41 O/UImplied totals: Saints 22, Titans 19 | | My hunch is that both of these teams may be more pass-heavy than they were a year ago, when they ranked 30th and 27th in pass attempts. I'm more confident of that with the Saints, though, who aggressively signed Derek Carr and have only one healthy, proven running back on the roster right now. | Toughest lineup decision: Michael Thomas -- Sit. You might have forgotten, but Thomas was actually pretty dang good last season, catching 16 passes for 171 yards and three touchdowns in three games. Of course, it was only three games, and Thomas is now a 30-year-old who has played 10 games total over the past three seasons due to various foot and ankle injuries. He's healthy now, but reports out of training camp weren't overwhelmingly positive. I have Thomas on a decent number of my teams, but ideally, I would see how he looks before I get him in my lineup, but he's an OK WR3, especially in PPR. Injuries to watch: The headline here is that Treylon Burks was a full participant Wednesday, about three weeks after sustaining a sprained LCL. It looks like he's on track to play, and that gives Ryan Tannehill his best receiving group since Corey Davis and A.J. Brown. He could be a sneaky QB2, while Burks has an opportunity to emerge as a useful Fantasy option even with DeAndre Hopkins here. On the Saints side, rookie RB Kendre Miller didn't practice, though notably, he was listed with a knee injury, not a hamstring issue. Miller's knee has been an issue going back to college, but we were told recently that Miller was dealing with a hamstring issue. It looks like Jamaal Williams could be in line for a significant three-down role to open the season.
| | 49ers at Steelers | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: 49ers -2; 41 O/UImplied totals: 49ers 21.5, Steelers 19.5 | | Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense started to generate some real hype and excitement in the preseason, but they face an awfully tough first test with Joey Bosa and the 49ers on the schedule. I remain skeptical about Pickett, but if he manages to light it up in this one, I may have to start to change my tune. | Toughest lineup decision: George Pickens -- Sit. We have enough injuries to deal with at WR that I can't just say every fringe guy is a sit. What I will say is, as muted as my enthusiasm for Thomas and Evans was, I've got both ranked above Pickens this week. I just don't buy that he's really going to challenge Diontae Johnson as the team's top target, so Johnson is still more of a boom-or-bust WR3/4 to me. He's talented enough to emerge as more than that, and some camp reports suggest he might be in the process of doing it, but I want to see it first. Injuries to watch: The key one to watch here is George Kittle , who was back at practice after being limited for much of the end of preseason practices with a groin injury. It looks like he'll be good to go for Week 1 at this point, but keep an eye on reports tomorrow and Friday just to be certain.
| | Cardinals at Commanders | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Commanders -7; 38 O/UImplied totals: Commanders 22.5, Cardinals 15.5 | | Expectations couldn't be lower for the Cardinals, especially on offense, and you can see that in their implied total, which is a full point lower than any other team on the schedule. Reports indicate Joshua Dobbs is expected to start over rookie Clayton Tune , but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if a change was made mid-game. Yes, you should be streaming the Commanders defense. | | Toughest lineup decision: Brian Robinson/Antonio Gibson - Start. I wanted to lean "sit" for both of them, but they could both get a ton of work if the Cardinals truly are as bad as we expect. The Commanders are seven-point favorites, and it isn't because the oddsmakers think Sam Howell is going to turn this team into a contender -- their season win total over/under is 6.5. The Commanders should have a run-heavy lean anyway, but in a game like this, they should be able to give Howell a nice, soft landing. That should mean double-digit carries for both backs, and hopefully some touchdown opportunities. Injuries to watch: Terry McLaurin told reporters he wasn't limited Wednesday, but he was listed as limited on the practice report as he continues to work his way back from a toe injury. It looks like he's got a pretty good chance to play, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was somewhat less than 100% if he does play. I'll probably rank him and Jahan Dotson as WR3s for this one, but I'd rather start Dotson, I think. On the Cardinals side, Marquise Brown (hamstring) and Zach Ertz (knee) were both limited, but I'd bet on Brown playing before Ertz, who was noncommittal when speaking to reporters earlier this week. | | Texans at Ravens | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Ravens -10; 43.5 O/UImplied totals: Ravens 26.75, Texans 16.75 | | C.J. Stroud will not be getting a nice, soft landing. No, he's the biggest underdog on the slate, facing a Ravens defense that accounted for the fifth-most sacks in the league a year ago. The Texans rightly have high expectations for their No. 2 overall pick, but it could be a tough debut. | | Toughest lineup decision: Any Ravens WR -- Sit. With Odell Beckham and first-rounder Zay Flowers joining Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson has his best receiving group ever -- and we're expecting new offensive coordinator Todd Monken to make the most of it. But what that actually looks like, and how snaps, routes, and targets are ultimately divvied up remains to be seen. All three wide receivers were worth drafting, but I'd have to be pretty desperate to start any of them. I guess if I drafted Cooper Kupp, Jerry Jeudy, and Terry McLaurin, I might be that desperate, but none of that trio is in my top 50 for this week at WR. Injuries to watch: Mark Andrews was limited with a quad injury Wednesday, but he is expected to play at this point. He missed the final six practices prior to this one, but should be locked in your lineup from here on out. | | Packers at Bears | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.Line: Bears -1; 43 O/UImplied totals: Bears 22, Packers 21 | | It's kind of wild to think about, but Justin Fields and Jordan Love are both probably playing for their future jobs this season. Expectations are higher for Fields, and he's probably more well situated to get off to a fast start, given the Packers injuries. | | Toughest lineup decision: Khalil Herbert -- Start. I have Herbert ranked between Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson, so I guess if I'm starting both, I should probably be starting Herbert. The Packers allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs last season, and while there are reasons to believe Herbert's grip on the No. 1 role in Chicago may not be incredibly tight, he seems like the clear lead runner to open the season. If he gets 15 carries, Herbert should give you enough to be worth starting, and that feels like a pretty good bet. Injuries to watch: Maybe the biggest surprise from Wednesday's practice reports was that both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs were absent with hamstring injuries. It's not clear when the injuries happened or how serious they are, but it's never a great sign when a team's top two receivers both miss the first day of practice in a week. We'll keep a close eye on this one, but Love could be really shorthanded for this one. And it could open up a significant opportunity for rookie WR Jayden Reed and TE Luke Musgrave. Musgrave locked in the No. 1 tight end spot for the Packers fairly early on, and he's one of several rookie tight ends we're hoping can be Fantasy relevant this season. He'd be a fringe TE1 for his NFL debut if Watson and Doubs are out. | | Raiders at Broncos | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.Line: Broncos 23.75; 44 O/UImplied totals: Broncos 23.75, Raiders 20.25 | | The Broncos were the NFL's biggest mess last season -- just ask, like, new Broncos coach Sean Payton -- but the Raiders weren't far behind. At least with the change in head coach, the Broncos could conceivably point to some forward momentum -- it's not clear what the Raiders short- or long-term outlook is supposed to be at this point. | Toughest lineup decision: Courtland Sutton -- Start. The tougher call in Denver is rookie Marvin Mims , because Sutton is a top-30 WR for me in Week 1. Generally speaking, just upgrading the No. 2 option in a passing game to No. 1 doesn't work out as smoothly as we like to think, but in this case, there's pretty compelling evidence for it, as Sutton has averaged 15.4 PPR points in nine games that Jerry Jeudy has missed over the past three seasons, compared to just 7.7 in 24 games with Jeudy. Mims is an interesting dart throw in deeper leagues (and DFS), but history suggests Sutton should be well worth trusting if Jeudy is unable to go.
Injuries to watch: The big storyline here is Jeudy's hamstring. He was carted off the field during practice about two weeks, and he was limited in Wednesday's practice session, with one reporter saying he "appeared to be running at around 75% speed." I'm expecting Jeudy to sit this one out, but hopefully it'll be just a one-game absence. | | Eagles at Patriots | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.Line: Eagles -4; 45 O/UImplied totals: Eagles 24.5, Patriots 20.5 | | The Eagles exceed the lofty expectations for them, but they might actually be the less interesting team of these two right now. I mean, they're certainly better, but I'm fascinated to see how the Patriots look after a pretty disastrous 2022 season. Say what you want about Bill O'Brien's roster management in Houston, but he's a legitimate offensive coordinator, something the Patriots quite literally did not have last season. | Toughest lineup decision: Any Eagles RB -- Sit. The Eagles trolled the Fantasy Football world Wednesday by releasing a depth chart with four running backs listed as the starter. I'd love to see how that formation looks in practice, but the reality is, they're just playing things incredibly close to the chest with their backfield. Any one of Kenneth Gainwell, D'Andre Swift, or Rashaad Penny could lead the team in carries this week and I wouldn't be at all surprised; I expect we'll see all three of them plus Boston Scott out there. The play here is to wait and see who emerges from the pack as the lead rusher; the downside is, it might end being a legitimate committee all year long. Injuries to watch: Both teams enter the season pretty healthy, with DeVante Parker (knee) a limited participant in practice as the only newsworthy note.
| | Dolphins at Chargers | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.Line: Chargers -3; 51 O/UImplied totals: Chargers 27, Dolphins 24 | | The Chargers were really the only team that managed to slow this explosive Dolphins offense down, as they limited Tua Tagovailoa to 10 for 28 passing with 5.2 yards per attempt. The Chargers famously got physical with Miami's speedy wide receivers to disrupt their timing , and it worked beautifully. What does Miami do as a counter? I can't wait to watch this one and see. I'm also pretty excited to watch what Kellen Moore can do with a talented-but-disappointing offense like LA's. I'm just excited to watch this football game. | Toughest lineup decision: Raheem Mostert -- Start. De'Von Achane will likely have a role, but I expect the Dolphins to open the season with Mostert as the clear lead back. Mostert's injury history means they'll likely have to be careful with him in the long run, but I could see him opening the season with a stretch much like he had from Weeks 4 through 8 last season, when he averaged 15.4 rushes and 2.8 targets with 12.7 PPR points per game. Not a star, but a solid RB2, especially if he can get into the end zone. Injuries to watch: With De'Von Achane (shoulder) a full participant Wednesday, the biggest notes here are that Jaylen Waddle (oblique) was limited, while Terron Armstead (back/ankle/knee) was unable to practice. Waddle is expected to play, but Armstead seems like kind of a long shot. In the past, he's played without practicing, but I don't know if the Dolphins would roll the dice on that this early, coming off an injury in camp. That's only going to raise Miami's degree of difficulty on offense.
| | Rams at Seahawks | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.Line: Seahawks -5; 46 O/UImplied totals: Seahawks 25.5, Rams 20.5 | | The Rams will be without Cooper Kupp, and that doesn't leave much else on this offense worth getting excited for. At least they have a healthy Matthew Stafford ... for now. | | Toughest lineup decision: Van Jefferson -- Sit. Jefferson has more than 65 yards in four of his 47 career games, and he only has more than even five targets in 12 of them. SportsLine's Jacob Gibbs dug up some numbers for Jefferson with Kupp off the field in his career and they're a little more promising, but I still just haven't seen enough from Jefferson to think he's the kind of receiver who is suddenly going to start earning a ton of targets. If I had to start someone from the Rams receiving game, it would be Tyler Higbee, my No. 8 TE this week. Injuries to watch: The big surprise here is that Jaxon Smith-Njigba practiced in full and is expected to play, just two weeks after wrist surgery. I wouldn't start him in this one, but Smith-Njigba absolutely should be involved in the game plan, even if he isn't a full-time player right away. Keep him stashed in all leagues. | | Cowboys at Giants | | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.Line: Cowboys -3.5; 46.5 O/UImplied totals: Cowboys 25, Giants 21.5 | | The big storyline for the Giants since they signed him to a long-term deal is whether Daniel Jones can take another step forward, and he's going to get a big test right away. Jones averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt with just one touchdown in 72 attempts in two games against the Cowboys, and while he ran well in one meeting, they held him to 14 yards in the other. We'll see how much Darren Waller 's presence helps. | | Toughest lineup decision: Any Giants WR -- Sit. At various points, I took fliers in drafts on Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt, Parris Campbell, and Isaiah Hodgins , with the hope that one of them would emerge as a useful option in the wide-open Giants offense. That may still end up being the case, but as we enter Week 1, it isn't entirely clear whether there even is a hierarchy here -- it might just be a jumbled mess of five or six guys coming on and off the field throughout the game. I couldn't imagine being desperate enough to start any of them. Injuries to watch: The biggest injury to watch here is Cowboys tackle Tyler Smith , who suffered a hamstring strain Monday. The team hopes he can practice later in the week, but the Cowboys could be down one of their key pass protectors already. On the Giants side, Wan'Dale Robinson (knee) was limited Wednesday, though it's not clear he will have a role even if he's cleared to play coming off the torn ACL. | | Bills at Jets | | Monday, 8:15 p.m.Line: Bills -2.5; 46.5 O/UImplied totals: Bills 24.5, Jets 22 | | The Bills have some changes to look forward to, but the obvious storyline to watch here is Aaron Rodgers' first game in a new uniform. It's a tough test on a big stage, and historically, this is the kind of setting Rodgers would be at his best. We'll get a good idea of whether Rodgers is back pretty early on, I think. | | Toughest lineup decision: Any Jets RB -- Sit. If you have to start one of them, I'd probably give the edge to Dalvin Cook over Breece Hall , but Cook didn't really get any more practice time after signing late and coming back from shoulder surgery. I'd bet we'll see a decent amount of Michael Carter as the Jets try to manage the reps for their top two backs. Hall should be very useful before long, but I didn't draft him expecting to use him before October. Anything before that is gravy. Injuries to watch: Neither team practiced Wednesday, so we won't get any injury reports from them until later today. However, neither side has any significant injuries on offense besides Hall and Cook, who are expected to play. Mecole Hardman dealt with a finger injury late in the preseason, but he isn't expected to play a big enough role early on to matter for Fantasy either way. | | | | | | | | The Early Edge | | Cover 3 | Welcome to The Early Edge! The No. 1 daily sports betting show and podcast powered by SportsLine + CBS Sports. If you’re looking for today’s best bets in a fast-paced fun environment, we’re the show for you.
Listen Now
| | Cover 3 College Football Podcast is the perfect call for any die-hard fan. Join hosts Chip Patterson, Danny Kanell, Tom Fornelli, and Bud Elliott as they take you from National Signing Day to the national championship.
Listen Now
|
| | | | |
|
|
