The Upcoming Week Will Be Significantly More Volatile

Higher Inflation Expectations Keep Yields Range-Bound It's not as if bond yields stood any real chance of breaking outside the week's prevailing range based on today's starting point, but by losing a modest amount of ground, they ended up staying even closer to the 4.50% psychological level ahead of next week's big CPI revelation. Today's driver was the Consumer Sentiment data. While the headline was weak (which would be good for bonds, all other things being equal), the inflation expectation component got the market's attention, pushing yields higher and stocks lower after 10am. The selling was brief and the afternoon was on cruise control at modestly weaker levels. Econ Data / EventsConsumer Sentiment67.4 vs 76.0 f'cast, 77.2 prev 1yr inflation expectations3.5 vs 3.2 prev 5yr inflation expectations3.1 vs 3.0 prev Market Movement Recap10:24 AM Moderately weaker overnight and no help from sentiment data. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.1bps at 4.497 11:25 AM A bit of additional weakness as MBS get caught up with TSY losses. 10yr still up just over 4bps at 4.498, but MBS now down 7 ticks (.23). 03:44 PM Losses cooled down by 1pm. Sideways and stable since then. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.503

May 10, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Higher Inflation Expectations Keep Yields Range-Bound Higher Inflation Expectations Keep Yields Range-Bound It's not as if bond yields stood any real chance of breaking outside the week's prevailing range based on today's starting point, but by losing a modest a... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch The Upcoming Week Will Be Significantly More Volatile In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, but this time is an exception. While we can't have any idea which direction rates will move n... (read more) Rob Chrisman Broker Loan Products; Super Jumbo, Accounting, RON, Fraud Prevention Products; Wholesale and Correspondent News On a flight yesterday I had a choice of movies and, knowing nothing about it, chose “The Beekeeper,” filled with severed fingers and broken glass being shoved into jugular veins. Fortunately, I followed it with “Boys in the Boat” (predictable but wel... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.16% +0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.16% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.64% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.62% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.40% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.33% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.64% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/10 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.64% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.09% -0.13 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.38% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/9 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.24% +0.11 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.11 0.64 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.45% +0.05 0.56 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/24 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 100.11 -0.18 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 100.11 -0.18 UMBS 6.5 101.56 -0.14 GNMA 6.0 101.02 -0.13 GNMA 6.5 101.62 -0.08 Pricing as of: 5/10 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4983 +0.0422 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.869 +0.051 5 YR Treasury 4.515 +0.044 7 YR Treasury 4.504 +0.042 10 YR Treasury 4.498 +0.042 30 YR Treasury 4.640 +0.031 Pricing as of: 5/10 5:31PM EST Latest Video The Fed on rate cut timeline, restrictive monetary policy and inflation tar... Retail sales are likely to be soft heading into Q2, says Federated Hermes' ... Consumers exhibit restraint in restaurant spending European markets hit record highs Around the Web Marketwatch 'What's the f-ing point': With mortgage rates above 7%, home buyers are still getting outbid by all-cash offers Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2024 CNBC Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey shows Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: 3%+ CNBC Treasury yields pause for breath as traders digest strong jobs data Eye on Housing High Interest Rates, Construction Costs Are Serious Impediments for New Multifamily Development Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 35.1% YoY; New Listings Up 3.6% YoY CNBC 'It's our duty': Bank of England chief says cutting rates just before a UK election wouldn't be an issue CNBC CFPB rule to save Americans $10 billion a year in late fees faces possible last-minute freeze Calculated Risk Blog Housing Starts: Record Average Length of Time from Start to Completion in 2023 Eye on Housing Credit for Builders Tightens Slightly, Remains Costly Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased 0.8% Year-over-year Eye on Housing Multifamily Developer Confidence Declines in First Quarter

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