You did fine, China | Profits are coming, Europe |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for October 20th in 3:08 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. China’s economic recovery stayed on track in the third quarter
  2. One major researcher is convinced there's a lot more profit to be had from high-growth stocks – Read Now
  3. Analysts are expecting European companies to report a turnaround in their quarterly profits
1/3

Perfect Posture

Perfect Posture

What’s Going On Here?

So much for China’s slump: fresh data out on Monday showed the country’s economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter versus the same time last year. Namasté.

What Does This Mean?

China’s economy grew by 0.7% in the first three quarters of 2020 combined. That’s slightly below analysts’ estimates, sure, but who’s judging: the Chinese economy has now regained all the ground it lost when the coronavirus lockdown brought the country to a standstill at the start of the year. Put a lot of that down to its flourishing industrial sector, which represents 40% of its economy and grew almost 7% compared to a year ago. And there lies China’s not-so-secret weapon: the country’s services sector – which includes restaurants, stores, and other businesses hit particularly hard by the pandemic – only represents 50% of its economy, compared to the US and eurozone’s 70-75%.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Don’t shop me now.
Let’s not take anything away from China’s shoppers, mind you. Monday's data showed they’ve been more than happy to splash their cash, with retail sales growing by 3.3% in September compared to the same time last year – its second gain this year. Online sales, it might not surprise you to hear, have continued to roar: Chinese shoppers now do almost a quarter of their spending online, up from about a fifth last year.

The bigger picture: Do as the Chinese do.
China’s is the only major economy expected to grow this year, which might partly be because it was one of the first to wrestle with the pandemic (tweet this). The good news is that its success gives analysts and investors a blueprint for economic growth going forward, as well as cause for celebration: the country’s steady growth means it’ll keep buying European and American products, even as coronavirus cases in those regions start to rise again.

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2/3 Premium

Cheap Stocks Or Big Profits?

What’s Going On Here?

Investors have been shunning the cheapest stocks in favor of those with fast-growing profits over the last few years, and new research from TS Lombard doesn’t see that trend ending anytime soon.

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3/3

Say What?

Say What?

What’s Going On Here?

Analysts are predicting a big profit turnaround when European companies start reporting third-quarter earnings later this week, but there are a few reasons to be skeptical stock prices will follow suit…

What Does This Mean?

It’s true: analysts have been increasing their third-quarter profit expectations for Europe’s companies lately, much like we’ve seen their Stateside colleagues do across the pond. But the bar’s also been set remarkably low: European companies’ profits, after all, plunged by a massive 61% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. And while profits are forecast to be higher this time around, they’re still expected to be 29% lower on average than they were the same time last year. Oof.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: The winners and the losers.
Analysts reckon travel and leisure companies – still suffering from the pandemic-induced restrictions – are set to report some pretty bleak numbers, but carmakers, they’ve said, should see the biggest rebound. And they’re not the only companies with a brighter future to look forward to: health technology firm Philips posted better-than-expected earnings on Monday, largely thanks to the COVID-driven demand for respiratory care devices. Its shares rose on the news – though frustrated investors might’ve missed out on the chance to take advantage when a glitch caused a three-hour outage of European stock markets. This is becoming a bit of a habit: both Japan and Mexico’s main stock exchanges suffered their own technical outages earlier in the month.

The bigger picture: Come on – impress us.
It’s worth pointing out that the main European stock index is up 31% from its March lows, suggesting analysts have already bought up stocks to reflect their climbing expectations. So if stock prices are going to stand any chance of moving any higher, investors might need hard proof that companies are going to keep growing their earnings – which, in this climate, could be hard to come by.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The only courage that matters is the kind that gets you from one moment to the next.”

– Mignon McLaughlin (an American journalist and author)
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📚 What we're reading

  • Yes, kids are bored of the pandemic (The Advocate)
  • The bubble-based gigs of the future (CNN)
  • The “manosphere” is starting to crack open (Jezebel)
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