| The proximate cause of the war in Sudan was a power struggle between two generals, Sudanese army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti (pictured above), the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). But its origins go back much further. The RSF was officially formed in 2013 from the remnants of the Janjaweed militia, deputed by Sudan’s former authoritarian leader Omar al-Bashir to suppress a tribal rebellion in the Darfur region. That operation that ended with the genocide of up to 300,000 people. After Bashir was toppled by mass protests in 2019, a civilian-military power sharing agreement was struck that was supposed to be the start of a transition to democracy. Instead, Burhan staged a coup with the support of Hemedti and the RSF. But tensions between the two sides over the RSF’s prospective integration into the regular armed forces turned into an outbreak of violence in the capital of Khartoum, and the conflict quickly spread across the country. Both Hemedti and Burhan claim to want to oversee a transition to democracy once their opponent is vanquished; but both appear to ultimately want dominance over the Sudanese state. While both sides have been accused of a litany of human rights violations and war crimes against civilians, the US, UN and others have determined that the RSF has committed genocide and mass rape against ethnic Masalit and non-Arab communities in Darfur. What is the current state of the war in Sudan? Rachel Savage’s timeline is a useful guide to the last two years of fighting; today, Sudan is split in two. The army mostly controls the north and the east, while the RSF has largely retreated to its stronghold in the west. Last month, after a relentless campaign, the army recaptured most of Khartoum, a victory of huge symbolic and practical significance. In this piece, Nesrine Malik reflects on the apocalyptic landscape that the RSF left behind, of “a city ravaged by unimaginable horror”. The most visible current flashpoint is in El Fasher, the last major city in Darfur that remains in the hands of the army. The RSF has been laying siege to the city since May last year. This piece published yesterday, recounting the testimony of people who recorded videos on phones smuggled in by the BBC, describes relentless artillery fire and looting, with even refugee camps coming under attack. On Saturday, NGOs and the UN said that RSF forces had attacked two camps while nominally searching for army fighters. Relief International, the charity which ran the last remaining clinic at Zamzam camp, said that its entire medical staff there were killed after being specifically targeted by RSF forces who broke in on Friday evening. About 400,000 people who were living at Zamzam camp have been displaced since the weekend, and the UN estimates that the death toll now stands at more than 400. How severe is the impact on civilians? Sudan is facing the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. More than 11 million people have been displaced internally, with another 3.8 million fleeing the country, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimated last week. About 20.3 million people, more than 40% of the population, require urgent health assistance, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), with malaria, dengue, measles and cholera rife. More than a third of hospitals are non-functional, and about 19 million children are out of school. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that almost 25 million people are enduring acute food insecurity, with 638,000 facing famine – the worst level anywhere in the world. There have also been reports of “staggering” levels of sexual violence, including sexual enslavement and the rape of children and the elderly. While the available data is limited, Unicef assesses that the number of people at risk of gender-based violence has tripled to 12.1 million since the war began. Estimates of the death toll have varied widely. Last year, US special envoy Tom Perriello said that up to 150,000 have been killed. But a November study by the Sudan Research Group at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found that as many as 90% of deaths in Khartoum state have not been recorded, implying a higher wider toll. How has the international community responded? “We don’t see the level of international attention on Sudan as we do for other crises,” Leni Kinzli of the WFP told Rachel Savage. “Sudan is – I wouldn’t even call it forgotten – it’s ignored.” The irrefutable evidence for that assertion is the funding from international donors to tackle Sudan’s most urgent humanitarian needs. The UN estimates that about $4.2bn is required to fund key projects tackling famine, displacement, Sudan’s shattered essential services, and disease – but so far, 90% of that has not been funded. The biggest donor, the United States, has recently frozen humanitarian assistance as part of Donald Trump’s attack on development organisation USAid. As a direct result, 1,100 emergency food kitchens across the country have been closed, affecting almost 2 million people. What were the London talks about? There was no immediate prospect that yesterday’s conference, co-chaired by the UK, EU and African Union, will lead to peace: neither the RSF nor the army were invited. But it was at least hoped that some kind of agreed path forwards might be found. In this report, Patrick Wintour wrote: “Officials had said the conference did not constitute an attempt at mediation or aid-pledging, but instead intended to build greater political coherence about Sudan’s future among the many countries that have claimed a stake in the country.” While the UK and EU both announced increases in aid, they are still small against the scale of the need. And the impossibility of settling on a communique that everyone present could agree to underlined how entrenched even the external actors in Sudan continue to be. Who are the key outside countries? On one side, the United Arab Emirates, Chad, and Kenya all face controversy over their apparent backing for the RSF. On Monday, Mark Townsend reported that a leaked internal UN report had tracked multiple suspicious flights from UAE to Chad, though without direct evidence of arms transfers; Kenya hosted RSF officials at a conference supporting the formation of a parallel government along the lines of Hemedti’s announcement yesterday. The UAE, believed to be the RSF’s most significant external backer, vociferously denied the allegations against it. But it has longstanding ties to the group and is the primary conduit for the sale of Sudanese gold, both via official and illegal routes. It has also deployed RSF mercenaries in its war in Yemen. Meanwhile, officials from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, both supporters of Burhan, were also at the conference – and a daylong argument between those two countries and the UAE ended without any agreement. It was left to the co-chairs to issue a statement calling for a “peaceful solution” and rejecting “all activities, including external interference, that heighten tensions or that prolong or enable fighting”. Two years in, that still looks a distance away. | 