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Why Energy is Paying MORE Than Bonds Right Now (+ my targets)

By Blake Young

Crude just bounced right back into my favorite zone—$68. If you’ve been in the main room with me, you’ve heard it: 68, 78, 68, 78. It’s happening again.

Here’s why this matters: energy stocks don’t need oil at $78 to be moneymakers. Anything above $56 is usually profitable. Above $68? That’s where margins explode.

Now, these names are paying more than bonds:

XLE: 3.3%
Chevron: 4.6%
ExxonMobil: 3.5%

That’s either matching or beating the 10-year treasury at 3.83%—and you still get price upside.

What I’m seeing now:

Inverse head & shoulders patterns triggering
Higher highs, higher lows across the board
A weak dollar losing traction
Real-time breakouts on major names

ExxonMobil: Breaking out of the monkey bars—looking for a move from $111 to $118
ConocoPhillips: From $94 to $104—an 11% run plus dividends

If the dollar stays weak, this sets up a textbook continuation for commodities.

That means more upside for oil, energy stocks, and those juicy yields—while you potentially capture 5–12% moves.

The window is tight. Tomorrow’s a half-day, Friday’s closed, and earnings kick off later this month.

The setup’s there. The signal’s there. The yield is real. Don’t miss this.

▶️ Watch my full energy breakdown here

Let energy pay you while you position for the next breakout.

– Blake

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