Over the weekend, India recorded its largest 24-hour increase in new COVID-19 cases in more than six months. The culprit is a recently-emerged Omicron subvariant called XBB1.16, which bears a close genomic resemblance to the XBB.1.5 variant responsible for most recent cases in the U.S. The World Health Organization (WHO) has described XBB.1.16 as “one to watch”—but there are a few key reasons why that isn’t as scary as it sounds.

• XBB.1.16 is good at spreading, but it isn’t causing serious illness. Dr. Monica Gandhi, associate division chief at UC San Francisco’s Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, told me that the new variant is still in line with what experts would expect to see as the disease evolves. “It's causing the expected rise in cases without a high rise in hospitalizations,” she says.
• India has done a great job providing boosters for its vulnerable populations. Per the WHO’s recommendations, this is the appropriate first step to take when new waves of cases hit areas with high population-level immunity.
• In the United States, it may be time for a new round of boosters anyway. Experts suggest that if XBB.1.16 does reach the U.S., boosting vulnerable populations who received the bivalent booster in early fall of 2022 could help slow cases.

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