Folks, the reign of the king is over... For nearly 50 years, Ford Motor's (F) F-150 was America's top-selling vehicle. But those days are now over.
Editor's note: The markets and our Chaikin Analytics offices will be closed Monday, February 17, for Presidents Day. As a result, we won't publish our Chaikin PowerFeed e-letter that day. Look for your next issue on Tuesday, February 18.
There's a New 'King of Vehicles' in America
By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics
Folks, the reign of the king is over...
For nearly 50 years, Ford Motor's (F) F-150 was America's top-selling vehicle. But those days are now over.
It's incredible news on its own. But the new reigning champ might surprise you...
That's because Toyota Motor's (TM) RAV4 is America's new top-selling vehicle. And it has a serious lead over the F-150 now.
Last year, the F-150 sold roughly 460,915 units. But the RAV4 clocked in an incredible 475,193 units. That's nearly 14,300 more RAV4s sold versus F-150s.
Year over year, RAV4 sales soared roughly 9%. And F-150 sales slid around 5%.
Interestingly, Honda Motor (HMC) is in third place. And its CR-V, the RAV4's direct competitor, saw sales climb 11% year over year.
It's hard to understate what an incredible shake-up this is. But there's something even more surprising...
When it comes to the stocks of Ford and Toyota, the Power Gauge saw the changes coming...
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Starting off, Ford has suffered a rough past year in the market.
The auto industry as a whole earns a "strong" rating from the Power Gauge. But over the past year, Ford's stock has tumbled hard. Take a look...
Ford has fallen nearly 30% over the past year. As you can see, it has struggled to earn any "bullish" marks from the Power Gauge over that same time frame.
Today, it earns a "neutral+" overall rating. But looking at its relative strength versus the broad market, you can see that the stock is still heavily underperforming.
Meanwhile, the stock has also struggled with its Chaikin Money Flow rating. This means that the buying patterns behind the stock reflect "smart money" selling. In other words, it looks like institutional investors are shying away from the company.
Now here's where things get really interesting...
You see, the news of Toyota's RAV4 sales only recently came out. But looking at the Power Gauge, we can see it pick up on a change in Toyota's stock a couple months ago...
As you can see, Toyota shifted into more consistently "bullish" territory in the Power Gauge back in mid-December. That was well before the news came out.
But our system saw that something had changed with the trading patterns behind the stock. We also see that Toyota's relative strength versus the broad market is starting to improve.
Unfortunately, like Ford, Toyota's Chaikin Money Flow indicator still looks weak. That means that the smart money hasn't caught up with this trend change quite yet.
This is something I'll be watching very closely. And I recommend you do the same...
The auto industry is facing significant new headwinds right now. President Donald Trump's tariffs could have major implications for the industry.
In fact, Ford CEO Jim Farley has already spoken out against them. During a recent conference, he said that the tariffs would "blow a hole" in the industry. And as you might know, Ford's manufacturing relies heavily on Canada and Mexico.
But, as funny as it sounds, Toyota has spent decades building its American manufacturing business. And according to the American-Made Index from Cars.com, the Toyota Camry comes in at No. 7 on the list of the most American-made vehicles you can buy.
Nothing from Ford even makes the top 10 on that list.
In other words, it's possible that Toyota will weather any coming tariffs better than Ford. That's before you take into account the fact that it just stole Ford's top spot.
So make sure you keep an eye on Toyota... It looks like there's a new "king of vehicles" in America.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.82%
8
15
7
S&P 500
+1.06%
84
284
130
Nasdaq
+1.44%
31
51
18
Small Caps
+1.13%
430
1021
453
Bonds
+1.66%
Materials
+1.74%
0
11
17
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain somewhat Bearish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Staples
+2.45%
Information Technology
+1.84%
Communication
+1.66%
Utilities
+1.44%
Energy
+1.29%
Materials
+0.87%
Real Estate
+0.26%
Industrials
+0.11%
Health Care
-0.5%
Financial
-0.79%
Discretionary
-1.3%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Mining Services
2
22
10
Over the past 6 months, the Mining subsector (XME) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -5.79%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #16 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 5 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
UEC
Uranium Energy Corp.
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum Corp
CMP
Compass Minerals Int
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
MGM
+17.46%
TAP
+9.52%
CZR
+9.19%
GEHC
+8.82%
VTR
+8.34%
Losers
WST
-38.22%
ZBRA
-8.36%
IRM
-7.28%
ZTS
-5.15%
LDOS
-4.53%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
DKNG DraftKings Inc.
Q4
$0.14
Beat by $0.10
GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies Inc.
Q4
$1.45
Beat by $0.19
DDOG Datadog, Inc.
Q4
$0.49
Beat by $0.06
GDDY GoDaddy Inc.
Q4
$1.97
Beat by $0.24
RSG Republic Services, Inc.
Q4
$1.58
Beat by $0.19
* * * *
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