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Wednesday, March 10, 2021
Alert, alert! We are officially one week away from the start of 2021 NFL free agency. If you're not itching for this thing to get started, then you might be after reading through this week's newsletter. John Breech is taking his weekly break in anticipation of Andy Dalton's latest free agency tour, so you're stuck with me -- Cody Benjamin, the man with two first names -- as we traverse the latest from around the NFL.
This is the Pick Six Newsletter and I am your guide. Now let's get to it. And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.
We've got franchise tag reactions, free agency previews, bold mock drafts and much more:
  1. Today's show: Next steps for free agents who were franchise tagged
Tuesday's franchise tag deadline came and went, but that doesn't mean all those tagged -- 10 in total, if you include Dak Prescott, whose tag was merely a procedural move -- are just stuck in place ahead of the 2021 season. On today's Pick Six NFL Podcast (listen and subscribe right here), Cody Benjamin joined Will Brinson to break down all the tags and forecast the next steps for the players stripped from the market.
The two identified Panthers tackle Taylor Moton, Giants defensive lineman Leonard Williams, Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin and Saints safety Marcus Williams as logical candidates for long-term extensions. They weren't so sure, however, that Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson is a given to stick around in Chicago, which could look to trade the former Pro Bowler in the event the two sides cannot reconcile amid failed contract talks.
"They've had months to get a long-term deal done," Benjamin said. "He's a guy that, much like Chris Godwin, if he actually hit free agency, you're talking about a dozen teams, if not more, that are probably serious about big money for him. Teams with money to spend that need a No. 1 wide receiver, he would've had plenty of offers. In his mind, imagine dreaming up the scenario of going back to Florida and playing for Miami for the Dolphins with a big, new contract, or going to a team that's contending for the playoffs and has a quarterback situation like he's never had before. He's still stuck in Chicago, so ... it could get contentious."
2. Logical offseason moves for the teams with the most money to spend
In an offseason with a now official $182.5M salary cap, plenty of teams will be crunching numbers (and rosters) rather than splurging on the open market, but that doesn't mean a handful won't be eager to dish out money for more talent. Seven different clubs, to be exact, are estimated to have more than $30 million in cap space as 2021 free agency approaches. With that in mind, Jared Dubin identified potential free agent targets for each of the seven teams, headlined by the Jaguars ($72 million) and Jets ($67 million). New York, in particular, could be a hot spot for play-makers once free agency gets underway, per Dubin:
They should be fighting the Bengals for every available offensive lineman. It's also important that the quarterback has more to work with than Denzel Mims and possibly  Jamison Crowder and  Braxton Berrios, so they should be in the mix for guys like Kenny GolladayCorey DavisJuJu Smith-SchusterWill Fuller, and Curtis Samuel, in addition to potentially bringing back Perriman. I also would not be surprised if they were in on Matt Breida and/or  Tevin Coleman, two former 49ers backs who know Matt LaFleur's system well and could share carries with someone they pick up in the middle rounds of the draft. (Though they are still the Jets, so you can't rule out them splashing the pot for someone like  Aaron Jones.)
3. Insider notes: Bears prepared to make lucrative offers for Watson, Wilson
Few teams are as desperate for quarterback help this offseason as the Chicago Bears. While team management has insisted the franchise has a plan at the position, the options appear to be dwindling, with Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz swiped from their grips and a middling free agent QB class awaiting. CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports the Bears are staying true to their "everything is on the table approach," albeit in desperate fashion, even having internal discussions about a potential Ben Roethlisberger move before the longtime Steelers QB re-upped in Pittsburgh. Now, per La Canfora, their last-gasp play is for one of the two star QBs perceived to be available via trade:
(Sources) said they are prepared to throw a boatload of picks at the Texans -- for Deshaun Watson -- and Seahawks -- for  Russell Wilson -- in an attempt to upgrade at the most important position in all of professional sports. They are beyond serious and, as is generally the case when job security is at the fore, future picks in 2023 don't hold all that much value in real time. They don't have the type of young, cheap talent that some other trade suitors do, but you can always keep throwing future top draft picks at the problem. "There is a real sense of panic in that building," as one NFL executive put it. "Don't underestimate how desperate they are."
4. Mock draft: 49ers move up for Justin Fields, Washington snags Trey Lance
With each day comes a new spin on where this year's top rookie QBs will end up. This time, Tom Fornelli's latest 2021 mock draft has gifted us a couple of under-the-radar scenarios involving Justin Fields and Trey Lance, potential top 10 picks:
49ers (No. 4): QB Justin Fields
Our first trade sees San Francisco moving up to swipe Fields. Sure, the Falcons could just as quickly take him too, but I figure Atlanta's more interested in a win-now pick with Matt Ryan's window closing. As for Fields and the 49ers, this pick likely occurs in a universe where Jimmy G has been shipped out. Maybe it's not realistic, but you'll just have to forgive me for dreaming of a world where Justin Fields gets to play under Kyle Shanahan.
Washington (No. 14): QB Trey Lance
Washington makes its move to get a QB with Trey Lance sliding down the board. Lance is a difficult player to project. He has drool-worthy tools, but he spent his college career playing at the Alabama of the FCS level. The step up to the NFL will likely require time to adjust, and not just because Lance didn't have a 2020 season.
5. Ranking three QBs most likely to reset market after Dak Prescott deal
With Prescott locked up in Dallas to the tune of $160 million, a few more teams could soon look to get in on the QB business, with Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson all entering the final seasons of their rookie deals. Which of the three youngsters from the 2018 draft is most likely to reset the market at the position? Cody Benjamin broke down each QB's career trajectory and projected extension numbers, giving a slight nod to Jackson over Allen for the next-biggest future deal:
Trying to pick between Allen and Jackson for the next biggest deal is like flipping a coin, and plenty of personnel people would prefer Allen's passing prowess over Jackson's legs. To be clear, Allen could very well top this list in terms of new money, because the reality is he's looked more like the total package during his ascent. But Jackson has a few things working in his favor. For one, he's incredibly young; he just turned 24, meaning even a four-year deal would put him back on the market at 28. His athleticism, we've noted, is also unparalleled, giving the Ravens one of the NFL's one or two best pure, transcendent talents. For all the guff he gets for his first few playoff starts and inconsistent aerial numbers, Jackson is the closest to Patrick Mahomes' level in terms of physical gifts, and that'll buy him so much leeway -- most of it justified -- as he continues to develop.
Jackson's projected deal: Four years, $170 million ($42.5 million per year)
6. Rapid Fire Roundup: Pro Day tracker, Giants' QB plans and more
This time of the year, there's far too much offseason news to include in six newsletter points, so we've expanded the sixth into the Rapid Fire Roundup, a rundown of all the rest of the NFL news and notes you may have missed:
 
 
✔Scores & Highlights
✔Fantasy and Betting Advice
✔Interviews with Top Athletes

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