| | | Good afternoon. The ball is now in the SECs court as all ETH ETF S-1s have officially been submitted to the regulator for approval. Current prediction markets are pricing approval and trading by July 26th at ~90%. | Today’s Stories:
🤨 Does BTC Have a Narrative Anymore?
🎆 Crypto’s 4th of July Fireworks | Today's newsletter is 1,102 words, a 5-minute good read. |
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| Peter Thiel’s Lukewarm Outlook | Peter Thiel, one of our favorite outside-the-box thinkers, has recently become more skeptical regarding Bitcoin’s future. | Speaking to Andrew Ross Sorkin at the Aspen Idea’s Festival, Thiel stated that although he is still holding Bitcoin and wished he'd bought more earlier, he had doubts about the cryptocurrency’s future price outlook.
The quote that really stuck out to us: "I'm not sure it's going to go up that dramatically from here.” | This coming from someone who has personally – and through his venture capital firm Founders Fund – made billions of dollars in profits on Bitcoin is quite the statement. Not only that, but his fund reportedly purchased $100 million of the asset only last year. | In 2022, Thiel also famously criticized Warren Buffett for not believing in Bitcoin, calling him the "sociopathic grandpa from Omaha."
However, Thiel’s recent remarks indicate a shift in perspective. So what’s changed?
Peter questioned the ideological vision of Bitcoin as an alternative to centralized government control, suggesting this narrative might be losing relevance stating: | "The part where I'm less convinced of is the sort of idealogical founding vision of Bitcoin… as sort of a Cypherpunk, crypto-anarchist, libertarian, anti-centralized government thing. Does it even work that way, or has that thread somehow gotten lost?"
"When people in the FBI tell me that they'd much rather have criminals use bitcoin than $100 bills it suggests that maybe its not quite working the way its supposed to" |
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|  | Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital |  |
| Translation: Peter Thiel feels the majority of the value has already been extracted from Bitcoin. |  | | | 5:00 PM • Jun 29, 2024 | | | |
| | 2.33K Likes 211 Retweets | 402 Replies |
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| | | | Nothing Happened… Yet | If you took a break for the 4th and didn’t look at the charts, your portfolio, and all the scary headlines… well done. Now, let’s get you back up to speed. Brace yourself.
Over the holiday, bitcoin experienced its worst daily drop (~14%) since November 2022, briefly falling below $53,000. However, the market has since recovered, now down only 4%. | Why The Sudden Drop?
Two (sorta) big events are contributing to this recent volatility: | Germany selling more BTC
The German government, opting to dump all of its once-confiscated BTC instead of holding it as reserves, has started selling off in big tranches. The substantial haul, in total, is worth ~$2.3 billion.
Mt Gox unlock stage begins
After more than a decade of waiting, the Mt. Gox coins are finally moving. $2.7 billion was moved on Thursday, marking the beginning of the repayment process. being prepared for distribution. There’s still much more to move, as the total repayment to creditors amounts to ~$9 billion.
| Again, nothing fundamentally substantial has happened yet. | For the most part, billions of dollars worth of Mt. Gox coins are being transferred, not sold, to other wallets. From here, it will take weeks, if not months, for creditors to have access. Coinshares currently estimates that roughly 75,000 BTC will enter circulation when it’s all said and done.
As for Germany’s rapid BTC-to-fiat conversion spree, while a questionable strategy to begin with, they’re already about halfway through their stack after starting the unloading process in June. | Overall, we doubt these events will significantly impact prices going forward, given the market's resilience and widespread awareness of these developments. | However, it's possible that either event could still influence short-term volatility or spark another round of FUD. |  | Alex Krüger @krugermacro | |
| Germany's FBI held 50,000 BTC up to late June. They have been selling relentlessly in small increments since June 19. Today they went in bigger, and moved 16,038 BTC to brokers and exchanges. Their balance is now down to 23,788 BTC. Entering the final stretch of the German… x.com/i/web/status/1… | | | 5:29 PM • Jul 8, 2024 | | | |
| | 2K Likes 175 Retweets | 131 Replies |
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 | 𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades | |
| The Germans really did nuke freedom money on America's birthday. This aggression will not stand. | | | 4:33 AM • Jul 5, 2024 | | | |
| | 803 Likes 45 Retweets | 55 Replies |
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