Hello Reader, Doesn’t Donald Trump’s initial blow-up at Amazon already seem like it happened an age ago? We’re at the stage in the regime change cycle where the hits are coming thick and fast, and we’re getting buried under headlines with implied exclamation points: Stocks post worst start to April since the Great Depression —CNBC
Tesla recalls almost half the cars it ever built, as shares tank and Musk’s billions shrink —NBC News
Technology shares plunge again amid growing backlash —Wall Street Journal
China hits US goods with tariffs as ‘sparks’ of trade war fly —Reuters | People are rattled. Confusion reigns: “Is this a blip, or something more?” But still… still… regime change isn’t being talked about! Apparently, one guy was on CNBC the other day saying the market was “taking a breather.” Bzzzt. Wrong answer. And Bloomberg tweeted on March 26: “The stock market that seemed doomed just a couple days ago is suddenly screaming, ‘buy.’” Bzzzt. I will continue to bang the regime change drum. Anyway, I don’t really want to do a victory lap on this, or anything else I’ve gotten right, because, well… Why would you care? It doesn’t really matter to you now that in The Daily Dirtnap on June 22, 2017, I said that Trump going after Amazon on antitrust is “really obvious.” Or that I said in August 12’s issue, I would short Tesla bonds “in a second.” Or that I said in the September 5, 2017 issue: “Hear this. Trump will impose steel tariffs on China. Not just steel tariffs. Tariffs on everything.” It mattered to The Daily Dirtnap’s subscribers, of course. We’ve had a run of great trades (and also a dud or two, but our strikeout-to-walk ratio is pretty good). And hopefully, the fact that I’ve been talking about regime change since February has mattered to you. If you took action and your portfolio is in a better place because of it… great! But what matters to you now is what happens next. And whether The Daily Dirtnap will help you in this stage of the regime change (and beyond). Spoiler: Sometimes my subscribers sum it up better than I can. Once More with Feeling Here’s the thing about regime change: It’s almost always bloody, messy, and protracted. And it’s often halfway through before people realize it’s happening, that it’s not just a blip… Realizing halfway through is too late. A lot of readers are emailing me about trying to play for a bounce. This is insanity. This is a coup. Old regime out, new regime in… old investing strategies out, new investing strategies in… low vol out, high vol in… trend following out, mean reversion in. So your choice here isn’t really whether you want to subscribe to The Daily Dirtnap. The choice is whether you want to: - Passively get carried along on the tide of regime change and hope you don’t sink, or
- Actively steer through it with daily updates from someone who saw this coming
If b) sounds good, you should join me at The Daily Dirtnap and you should do it before you find yourself up a particular creek without a paddle. As my clock says, the time is… now. Jared Dillian
P.S. Don’t forget… if you join before midnight tomorrow, you get a lot of extra stuff that you can’t get anywhere else. |