This Week's Hotly Anticipated Events Completely Failed to Break The Stalemate

Rates may not be as high as they were several months ago or as low as they were 5 weeks ago, but they're close enough to either boundary that the threat (or promise) of returning is palpable. For at least the past 2 weeks, we'd been waiting for this week's events to give us some sort of push higher or lower, but it looks like the waiting will continue. The two key events in question were Tuesday's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wednesday's Fed Announcement. CPI is the most widely followed inflation metric among regularly scheduled economic reports. It comes out once a month and has had a huge impact on rates many times over the past 2 years. This time around, it happened to be scheduled to come out a day before a particularly important Fed policy announcement. Year-over-year CPI was destined to continue falling in this week's report simply because it was so high 13 months ago (i.e. it's a 12 month calculation and there was no way the current month would be as bad as the month that just got bumped out of the equation). Month-over-month numbers filter out the impact of the past and show more detail. This is where we see the first stalemate that went unresolved this week. Simply put, month-over-month inflation remained perfectly inside the increasingly narrow sideways range that's been intact for almost 2 years. This offered precious little guidance for the Fed announcement the following day.

June 16, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch This Week's Hotly Anticipated Events Completely Failed to Break The Stalemate Rates may not be as high as they were several months ago or as low as they were 5 weeks ago, but they're close enough to either boundary that the threat (or promise) of returning is palpable. For at least the past 2 weeks, we'd been waiting for this ... (read more) MBS Commentary Rangebound Weakness With Fed Speakers Keeping Bonds Wary Rangebound Weakness With Fed Speakers Keeping Bonds Wary Bonds might have had a chance to hold steady today--and to be fair, they did hold steady in the bigger picture--but some combination of Fed speakers an... (read more) Rob Chrisman Affordable Housing, Retention Products; Events Early Next Week; Dive Into Recent Economic Stats Competition is the mainstay of many businesses and individuals. How does UPS compete to hire drivers for their trucks? One way might be to offer air conditioning, which has been negotiated for the first time. Lenders and vendors are led by competitiv... (read more) MBS Commentary June's Theme Continues: Sideways and Choppy at Weaker Levels Heading into this week's CPI and Fed Day combo, we expected bonds to be broadly sideways with elevated volatility. But rather than give new direction, this week's big ticket events have only perpetuated the sideways-ness and increased the volat... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.95% +0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.95% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.30% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.63% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.69% -0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.90% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.62% -0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.30% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.69% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.10% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/15 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.14 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.25% 0.00 1.05 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.79% +0.05 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/14 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.53 -0.20 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.53 -0.20 UMBS 5.5 100.08 -0.16 GNMA 5.0 98.78 -0.19 GNMA 5.5 100.08 -0.13 Pricing as of: 6/16 6:35PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.7670 +0.0470 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.720 +0.070 5 YR Treasury 3.986 +0.073 7 YR Treasury 3.879 +0.060 10 YR Treasury 3.767 +0.047 30 YR Treasury 3.853 +0.013 Pricing as of: 6/16 6:35PM EST Latest Video We're in a shortage situation in the housing market, says Realtor.com's Dan... Consumer sentiment comes in higher than expected in June Fed Notes: Where we go now Former Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher: The Fed is 'totally devoted' to... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Update: Lumber Prices Down About 25% YoY Eye on Housing Double Digit Declines for Single-Family Permits in April 2023 in All Regions Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Update on Mortgage/Treasury Spreads Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed's Barkin: What's Next For Fed Policy Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 10% YoY; New Listings Down 22% YoY Reuters Fed's Waller: Not clear bank failures had a material effect on credit tightening Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 1.5% CNBC 2-year Treasury yield climbs as investors assess interest rate outlook CNBC Amid economic uncertainty, it's an 'attractive time' for investment-grade bonds, financial expert says Reuters Euro zone yields rise after ECB as market bets on policy rates above 3.9% CNBC CNBC Daily Open: Dont fight the Fed? Whats that? Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales Increased 0.3% in May Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 0.2% in May

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