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| Thursday, December 15, 2022 |
| Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| We've made it through 14 weeks of the NFL season without seeing a single division get clinched, but that could finally change tonight in Seattle. If the 49ers beat the Seahawks, they'll officially clinch the NFC West title, which seems pretty wild when you consider that San Francisco was 3-4 and tied for last place after Week 7. |
| It's also pretty wild when you consider that the 49ers are down to their third QB on the season (Brock Purdy), and could be down to their fourth tonight with Purdy questionable for "Thursday Night Football." |
| Anyway, we'll be previewing Thursday night's showdown in today's newsletter, plus we'll also be making some picks for the game. |
| As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. |
| 1. Today's show: Brady Quinn breaks down the latest NFL news |
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| If you're going to listen to just one episode of the Pick Six podcast every week, then you should definitely make sure that you're listening every Thursday, because that's when Brady Quinn joins the show. For today's episode, the former first-round pick chatted with Will Brinson about multiple topics, including what kind of impact the addition of Baker Mayfield could have in Los Angeles. |
| After watching the Rams stun the Raiders on Thursday night in Week 14, Brady thinks it wouldn't be completely crazy for Sean McVay to move forward with Mayfield as his permanent starter. |
| "I feel like Baker's kind of rejuvenated [McVay]," Quinn said. "Dare I say, I think that Baker is the quarterback he needs moving forward, not Matthew Stafford, who's gotten everything he wanted. He's got the Super Bowl. He's got the Hall of Fame stats." |
| The one thing Brady likes about Mayfield is that the former No. 1 overall pick seems like he's on a mission to prove all of his doubters wrong. |
| "Baker's hungry, he wants to come there and try to go to a Super Bowl and win one," Quinn said. "I kind of look at this and I think this might revitalize Sean McVay. I think McVay likes challenges and he's looking at a guy right now in Mayfield who not a lot of people are high on at this point in his career. If he can build him up to be able to go to a Super Bowl and win one, that puts McVay in rare company with three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks." |
| It's not a crazy theory. With Stafford battling so many injuries, it's completely possible that the veteran QB could decide to call it a career, which would pave the way for Mayfield to take over as the Rams' starter going into 2023. |
| If you want to hear Brady's full thoughts on the topic -- and everything else the two guys talked about on today's podcast -- then be sure to click here. Brinson and Brady also talked about what makes Kyle Shanahn so successful, even when he's down to his third-string quarterback, and they also talked about Mike Leach's impact on the NFL. |
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| 2. Thursday night preview: Prepping you for 49ers at Seahawks |
| There's going to a lot on the line tonight for both teams in this NFC West showdown. The 49ers (9-4) can actually clinch the division title with a win over Seattle (7-6), but that's not going to be easy. The Seahawks are going to be desperate for a win: Not only do they need a win to keep their division title hopes alive, but they also need a win just to stay firmly alive in the wild-card race. |
| My good buddy Jared Dubin wrote our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
| Why the 49ers can win: The 49es are having some health issues at quarterback right now, but fortunately for them, they might not even need a quarterback for this game and that's because they might be able to beat Seattle by just giving the ball to Christian McCaffrey 40 times. The Seahawks are surrendering 160.5 rushing yards per game this season, which is the second-worst number in the NFL. If the 49ers can take advantage of that, that will take some serious pressure off their quarterback, whoever that ends up being (It will likely be Brock Purdy, but he's dealing with oblique and rib injuries that have left him listed as questionable for this game).Why the Seahawks can win: Back in Week 2, the Seahawks got smoked by the 49ers 27-7 in a game where Seattle was held to just 36 yards rushing, which still stands as a season-low. If the Seahawks are going to win, they're going to have to figure out how to get their ground game going against a 49ers defense that's surrendering just 75.1 rushing yards per game this year, which is the best in the NFL. For Seattle, the magic rushing number this year seems to be 75: The Seahawks are 7-2 when they rush for 75 yards or more, but 0-4 when they are held under that. The Seahawks backfield is banged up, but if they can hit that number, it will take some pressure off Geno Smith while giving the Seahawks a puncher's chance to win this game. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, Jordan Dajani put together a full gambling preview (odds via Caesars Sportsbook). You can check out Jordan's full gambling preview by clicking here, but if you don't feel like clicking over, here's one prop from both of us for tonight's game. |
| ONE PROP JORDAN LIKES: Christian McCaffrey OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-123): "McCaffrey is averaging 45.1 receiving yards per game with the 49ers and with Purdy banged-up, I think McCaffrey could get a couple extra touches -- and he already averages five receptions per game. I'm not opposed to taking the over on 4.5 receptions, but I like the over on receiving yards more." ONE PROP I LIKE: Jason Myers OVER 5.5 points (-135): This is an EXTREMELY low point total for a kicker and I'm guessing it's at 5.5 because Myers only scored one point the last time these two teams met back in Week 2. However, Myers has gone OVER 5.5 points in 10 of Seattle's 11 games since then and he's averaged 9.36 points per game since Week 2. Also, the Seahawks offense is much better now than it was in Week 2, so they should have a slightly easier time moving the ball, which should theoretically mean more points for Myers. |
| Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight in a game where the 49ers are a 3-point road favorite: |
Dubin's pick: 49ers 26-17 over Seahawks
Dajani's pick: Seahawks 24-23 over 49ers
My pick: 49ers 27-17 over Seahawks |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, we have one bold expert taking the Seahawks while everyone else is riding the 49ers. |
| 3. NFL MVP Watch: Jalen Hurts on top heading into Week 15 |
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| With just four weeks left to play in the regular season, the race for MVP could end up going down to the wire. To figure out who has the upper-hand right now, we rounded up 10 CBSSports.com writers and had them vote on who they think will win the MVP. Under the new voting rules this year, the 50 media members who vote on the award will each get to name up to five players on their ballot, so that's exactly how we handled the voting with our ballots. |
| Here's a look at our top five along with their point total in the vote. (A player got five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.) |
1. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (51)
2. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (43)
3. Bengals QB Joe Burrow (36)
4. Bills QB Josh Allen (15)
5. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (7) |
| As you can see, this race is pretty tight, but Hurts definitely has the advantage. Not only is he on top in total points, but he also received eight of the 11 first-place votes that we handed out. |
| Overall, a total of nine players received at least one vote, including two 49ers players. If you want to see a full list of every player who got at least one vote, then be sure to click here. |
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| 4. NFL strength of schedule: The teams with the easiest and most difficult remaining slates |
| With just four weeks to go in the regular season, now seems like a good time to go over who has the easiest and most difficult remaining strength of schedule. With the AFC and NFC wild-card races so tight right now, strength of schedule could end up being one of the deciding factors. |
| For instance, although the Giants are currently in the seventh spot in the NFC, it's not going to be easy for them to stay there because they have the SECOND-MOST difficult remaining strength of schedule out of any team in the NFL. Over their final four games, the Giants will only play one team that currently has a losing record (the 4-8-1 Colts). |
| In the AFC, if you're trying to predict who's going to get the top seed, the Chiefs seem like the best bet right now and that's because they have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the NFL. A big reason for that is because they still get to play the Texans, plus they have another game against a Broncos team that they just beat on Sunday. |
| Here's a look at the five teams with the easiest remaining schedules: |
1. Chiefs (Opponents have a .317 combined winning percentage)
2. Chargers (.356)
T-3. Vikings (.385)
T-3. Lions (.385)
5. Panthers (.404) |
| Here's a look at the five teams with the most difficult remaining schedules: |
1. Bears (.731)
2. Giants (.654)
T-3. Patriots (.615)
T-3. Bengals (.615)
T-5. Cowboys (.606)
T-5 Commanders (.606) |
| Out of the six teams stuck with a difficult schedule, five of them are currently in playoff contention, and based on their schedules down the stretch, it won't be surprising if we see at least one monumental collapse over the final four weeks of the regular season, and I'm guessing that will be the Giants. |
| 5. NFL players who could be hit with the franchise tag this offseason |
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| Only 14 NFL teams can earn a playoff berth, which means the offseason is officially going to be starting in less than a month for the 18 teams that don't make the postseason this year. With that in mind, we decided now would be a good time to unveil an early offseason preview of players who might get hit with the franchise tag in 2023. |
| The list below was put together by Joel Corry, who is a former NFL agent, so he knows a thing or two about the inner workings of the NFL. Here are the top candidates for the franchise tag along with what their franchise tag number is estimated to be: |
| Ravens QB Lamar Jackson ($45.28 million). "The exclusive franchise designation will be most likely be used here if Jackson gets tagged. The 2023 exclusive quarterback franchise tag currently projects to $45.248 million. This number is subject to change depending on new quarterback deals, contract restructures, pay cuts and/or releases between now and then."Seahawks QB Geno Smith ($32.45 million). "The Seahawks reportedly want Smith back for 2023. Contract talks are expected to take place after the season. If the Seahawks have enough concerns about regression since it's unknown whether this season is a true breakout performance for the 32-year-old or an anomaly, then some sort of designation may be warranted instead of making a long-term commitment in this salary stratosphere."Raiders RB Josh Jacobs ($10.1 million). "The Raiders surely regret declining a fifth-year option in 2023 with Jacobs for a fully guaranteed, $8.034 million deal given the type of season he is having. Jacobs has become an NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate. He is leading the NFL with 1,402 rushing yards and 1,748 yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and receiving yards). His 11 rushing touchdowns are tied for third in the NFL. There's a little over a $2 million difference between the salary for the declined option year and the projected running back franchise tag."Cowboys RB Tony Pollard ($10.1 million). "Retaining Pollard -- whether on a long-term deal or franchise tag -- could come at the expense of Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard is expected to be cheaper over the next three years than the $36.3 million Elliott is scheduled to make from 2023 through 2025. Teams rarely make a significant financial investment in two running backs simultaneously." |
| For a look at Corry's full list of players who could be tagged, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Rapid-fire roundup: Cardinals GM taking a leave of absence |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Steve Keim taking leave of absence in Arizona. In the same week where the Cardinals lost Kyler Murray, their season took another wild turn on Wednesday when the team announced that general manager Steve Keim would be taking a leave of absence. Keim's job will be handled by VP of player personnel Quentin Harris and VP of pro personnel Adrian Wilson while he's out. For more details on the situation, be sure to click here. NFL dumping Mexico game for 2023. The NFL will not be playing a game in Mexico in 2023 due to the fact that Estadio Azteca will be undergoing renovations to prep the building for World Cup-hosting duties in 2026. With Mexico out, the NFL will consider the possibility of playing two games in Germany next season. Broncos stadium getting $100 million in upgrades. The Broncos plan on making some major improvements to their stadium this offseason. The $100 million in upgrades will include adding a bigger scoreboard (the fourth-biggest in the league), upgrading suites, improving concession stands, enhancing the team store and making the wi-fi better. Honestly, they should just spend the entire $100 million on making the wi-fi better. No one wants to hang out at a place with bad wi-fi.
Cowboys claim former second-round pick off waivers. The Cowboys added some cornerback depth on Wednesday in the form of Trayvon Mullen. The corner was selected with the 49th overall pick by the Raiders in 2019 and spent three seasons with them before being traded to Arizona. The Cardinals cut him on Tuesday.
Jerry Jones sounds optimistic about signing Odell Beckham. After adding T.Y. Hilton, it appears the Cowboys have decided they still have room on their roster for Odell. Jones was asked about adding Odell this week and he gave an interesting answer: "I don't want to talk about that but stand by. This thing could break," Jones said, via ESPN.com. |
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