"This can be one cause of every poker player’s worst fear: 'tilt,' the phenomenon where your perception of what’s happening at the table has gone completely askew and you’re making blunder after blunder. Poker players tend to think of tilt as an emotional state—anger after a bad beat, boredom after a slow run of cards, or overconfidence after a winning streak. But it can also have biological causes. In big moments when you’re confronted with a high-stakes decision, you’re essentially working with a different operating system than the one you’re used to. If a player reacts by going into an anxiety spiral, 'it’s like a blue screen on your computer where your mind is just either frozen or so emotionally hijacked that you’re no longer thinking straight,' said Tendler."

"On the Edge"
Nate Silver

Trump is on tilt.

But let's be clear, Biden was on tilt after the June debate, or close to it. Joe was desperate, on the run, he gave public performances that just reinforced the step he'd lost. He refused to leave the race, and was oblivious to the truth, that he had lost the faith of his party and would probably not win the election.

But we learned two things here. One about politics and the Democratic party, that they're not transparent and no one is trustworthy. Second, that despite looking like an everyman, Joe from Scranton, Biden was a power-hungry official just like the rest of them. He thought only he could fix it. He was delusional.

But now Biden is gone.

And that puts the focus on Trump.

And now we can see Trump through the lens of Biden. We knew Trump was a megalomaniac, needing to be at the top, in power, but not to the degree we do now.

No one can rein in Trump. That's the story in every news outlet. That his handlers, the party, tell him to stick to the script. But now that Kamala has stolen his thunder, now that he's losing in the polls, Trump has lost his mind.

You've got to read some of his posts.

Never mind that he's posting 24/7 online anyway.

This is one of the reasons Musk has lost stature in the eye of the public. We thought you had a job, we thought you had TWO jobs, each one at the cutting edge of technology, requiring constant oversight. Where in the hell do you find the time to be posting constantly on X/Twitter, never mind the content?

I mean it was a breakthrough for Trump to employ social media back in 2016. He looked more with it than Hillary. But now everybody's online. Today there was scuttlebutt that if you refuse to make expensive purchases on your phone, if you need to go to your desktop, you're derided by Gen-Z as out of touch.

The football moved.

Furthermore, people do make their living by being online 24/7. We have a whole category for them, they're known as "influencers." At best they're money machines, train-wrecks, credibility is not their calling, nor their reputation, they'll do whatever it takes to make a buck.

Which is the hole Trump has now fallen into. Trading cards? Hyping a book? I don't care if his audience buys these products or not, but Trump is undercutting his image, or pulling back the curtain to reveal his true identity, that he's just a huckster, only looking to make money, the country be damned.

So he just said he won the championship at his Palm Beach club. Does ANYBODY believe that? Come on, you can see him play golf online. He's got terrible technique, and he's old. There's not a single other club member who can beat him?

Trump is amping up not only the lies, but the vitriol.

He's excoriated every facet of ABC re the coming debate, the outlet, the moderators... I mean why even show up? If you really believed it was this bad, this against you, you wouldn't participate. But Trump can't forgo the spotlight. He's trying to set the stage in case of failure, just like he did with the 2020 election, but his scorched earth statements make everybody but the dyed in the wool MAGA camp wince.

Bill Clinton listened to feedback. He moved to the center running for his second term and many Democrats will never forgive him, but he got elected. And Hillary was so famous for triangulating, looking at the research, that she ended up being totally unbelievable. Hell, when she said her favorite book was the Bible, even I winced, and I voted for her.

But Biden wouldn't listen. And Trump won't listen at all.

They both think they have their finger on the pulse on the American public. And there's no evidence that can prove them wrong. It's akin to the musicians who send me their mediocre music and say they're never gong to give up, they're lifers, putting in their 10,000 hours. They're DELUSIONAL!

The public was not down with Biden. As proven by the great surge for Kamala once she became the candidate. Both Joe and Donald whip out outlier polls when confronted with the fact and stats that they're losing. Donald can't stop quoting his Rasmussen numbers, which are legendarily skewed towards Republicans. Furthermore, irrelevant of whether you like Nate Silver or not, his concept of creating a model that averages the polls has permeated the public, these models represent the zeitgeist. To the point when this outlet or that says Trump is winning or losing in their poll I don't really pay attention, they're living in a bubble, they're not taking into account the work of every other researcher.

Even rock stars are not this bad. They don't rant and rave in public when their new record stiffs, they just go on the road and count their dollars and try to figure out a way to have another hit. Or maybe they never record again, not wanting to tarnish their reputations. But they are certainly aware of the public's perception of them. Biden and Trump? NO WAY!

You're supposed to be running the country, but you're not fully aware of the people in it?

I just read that Kamala Harris went to a Bad Religion show in the early aughts. I know at least we can have a discussion, sharing some of the same reference points. But Trump? I'm sure he'd find a way to call me a loser. Unless I suck up to him. But then he'd cut me out at some point in the future. This is what RFJ, Jr. doesn't understand. Trump now has what he wants, RFJ, Jr.'s endorsement, he no longer cares about RFJ, Jr. WHATSOEVER!

So Trump's got the MAGA people. There's nothing he can say or do to alienate them. But they're not enough to win. In order to be victorious Trump has to find a way to convince non-fans to vote for him.

But who wants to vote for a sore loser detached from reality, someone who's perennially angry, just looking for an enemy to lambaste?

Yes, ever since the convention Trump has been completely out of control.

What did Kenny Rogers sing, you have to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em?

You stay silent during the other party's convention. Otherwise you look like a loser, no one likes a party crasher.

And ever since then there's been one insane statement after another.

To the point where it's actually FUNNY!

What will this guy come up with next? Can we trust anybody in the world other than him? He's got a problem with not only the networks, but the cable outlets, not only MSNBC and CNN, but Fox too.

We can't live on quicksand. There must be some basic truths, that Trump can point to as opposed to just making them up.

Trump is now the underdog. You can fight and win from that position. Furthermore, people tend to like the underdog. Instead Trump keeps talking about Biden, both Joe and Hunter!

That's one thing we've learned with Biden's ouster. Once you're gone we no longer think of you. The news moves just that fast.

Trump's the kind of guy who would get dropped by his label. No one wants to work with someone who's insane. Trump is verging on Kanye territory, he's just one step away from becoming a pariah. He's bad, just one racist or antisemitic comment away from totaling his candidacy.

And let's be clear, his acolytes won't care. They'll go down with him, just like fans bought all those discontinued Kanye shoes Adidas blew out.

Hell, one of the tropes after the end of World War II was there were Japanese soldiers living in the hinterlands who still didn't know the war was over.

Not only is Trump fighting the last battle, he doesn't seem grounded in reality. And sure, he won the nomination, but he and his Republican party have been on an election losing streak.

I no longer have emotion, I'm no longer intellectually involved. I'm not worried about Trump's statements hurting Kamala and Walz, I'm just watching the conflagration. I've never seen anything like this. The guy is completely out of control, way over the line, and not only can no one stop him, there are people who will vote for him!

But not enough. Certainly if he doesn't mellow out and change his ways.

But when you're on tilt you're desperate, you can't sleep at night, you believe you must fight back instead of pulling back and taking stock, figuring out a new strategy.

Trump is all in. All the time. And this is not a winning strategy in poker.

Nor in elections.

You've got to appear human.

Or you've got to rig the election, like Maduro, or Putin.

That could happen. And people hate elites, they hate Democrats. They'll vote for Trump no matter what. But the rest of us? WHO IS THIS GUY? Someone who will do anything for attention, who has no friends, who only trusts himself. Those people don't win in regular society, and they certainly don't win in elections. Hell, Trump lost in 2020 and he looked reasonable back then compared to how he is now.

This is the best entertainment on the planet.

The self-immolation.

Like those people who set themselves on fire to protest. We don't embrace the cause, we just ask what got into these people that they could be so delusional and take such an action? Couldn't anybody talk to them and get them to stop?

Apparently not.

And it's the same deal with Trump.

We can all see it, but somehow he's blind. Such an egomaniac, so deep in his own sh*t, that he's lost touch with reality. Lying with impunity about stuff that doesn't even matter.

Forget the issues. It's about personalities.

And unless you're a fan of Kim Jong Un... How in the hell are you going to get behind a delusional autocrat?

You're not.

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