The US didn't get the holiday present it wanted | China's carmakers missed their alarm |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for January 6th in 3:15 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over an oat milk latte at The Milkman in Edinburgh, UK (🌨 6°C/42°F)

Today's big stories

  1. The US economy added more jobs than expected in December, prolonging the Federal Reserve’s post-festive headache
  2. These five questions can help you decide how you really feel about stocks – Read Now
  3. Chinese carmakers fell behind their targets, as tough competition in the world’s biggest car market left (almost) no winners

You Wish!

You Wish!

What’s going on here?

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) might’ve wished upon a star, but its American employment Dream didn’t come true.

What does this mean?

The latest employment data showed that the US filled around 216,000 jobs in December. And while that’s more than expected, the main kicker was the salaries being paid out. Paychecks were just over 4% higher than the same time last year, and while that does mean Americans can keep up with rising prices, it also means companies can keep upping their price tags. That’s a spiral that could keep fanning inflation, so while the Fed hardly has a reputation for partying hard, the central bank is sure nursing a long-lasting headache right now.

Why should I care?

Zooming out: Mathemat-ish.

Central bankers round their numbers even more than shoppers during January sales. Any inflation reading below 2.5% could be deemed “close enough” to the European Central Bank’s (the ECB) 2% target, the point at which interest rate cuts are firmly on the table. But any number above, and central banks will see red – or, at least, the 3% mark. So when December’s 2.9% stat landed on desks this Friday, the ECB will have noticed the uptick from November’s 2.4%. And even though economists expected a slight increase, that data could keep rate cuts off the table for longer.

The bigger picture: Artificial intelligence versus real inflation.

High interest rates might be keeping inflation steady now, but they were near zero for much of the last decade. That means something else had been keeping prices in check beforehand – and that could’ve been technology. Cost-saving tech like cloud computing solutions keep companies’ margins wide, and that means they don’t need to push high costs onto their customers in the form of beefier prices. So give it a few months or years, and artificial intelligence may work magic on firms’ books. If so, that should keep prices stable and shoppers happy.

You might also like: Americans are richer than ever.

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Analyst Take

Stocks Are Expensive: That Doesn’t Mean You Should Stay Away

Stocks Are Expensive: That Doesn’t Mean You Should Stay Away

By Paul Allison, CFA, Analyst

It seems like everyone’s talking about how high stock prices are right now. And let’s be real, they are.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean you should stay away: expensive stocks might still be a good value for your portfolio.

To decide whether they are, you just need to ask yourself a few simple questions.

That’s today’s Insight: the simple quiz that can help you decide how you really feel about stocks.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Fully Loaded

Fully Loaded

What’s going on here?

Only a third of Chinese carmakers hit their sales target last year, as the world’s biggest car market filled to the brim with competition.

What does this mean?

Sales of EVs and hybrid cars were 38% higher last year than the one before, with China’s Passenger Car Association reporting a figure just shy of 9 million on Wednesday. But clearly, Chinese carmakers had bigger plans. Of the thirteen brands that made their sales figures public, just four hit their targets. The ones that churn out traditional gas guzzlers fell particularly behind, with only Geely Automobile living up to its own projections. Mind you, electric carmaker BYD stole the focus from any failures, meeting its ambitious target to dethrone Tesla as the world’s top-selling EV maker.

Why should I care?

For markets: Vacations can be expensive.

China’s appetite for EVs is sending a rumble through the car market. But the problem is that electric carmakers are hustling to satiate those buyers, adding more competition to an already crowded market. So for brands that missed the chance to establish themselves as household names in the early days, the most lucrative move could be to funnel EVs into foreign markets. Russia, for example. The only problem: China gives its carmakers hefty tax breaks and subsidies, so they’ll need to watch their books carefully if they expand into less generous areas.

The bigger picture: Carmakers sneeze, and chipmakers catch a cold.

Carmakers stocked up big-time on the chips they need to run fancy gizmos and gadgets, anticipating more sales than they won in the end. So with inventories nice and fat, chipmakers aren’t having much luck flogging their wares. Mobileye – which makes chips for driver-assistance systems and counts Porsche and Volkswagen as customers – recently unveiled a disappointing full-year revenue forecast. And because that made investors wary of future business from carmakers, they sent Mobileye’s shares down by a quarter on Thursday.

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Invest like the pros

Only the very best investors can make money, time after time, by choosing single stocks.

Even if you crack one prediction, a letdown on another could cancel out your returns – or leave you in the red. That’s especially true in today’s climate of heightened tension and volatility.

This year, cash was the place to be: investors flocked to savings and money market investments in record numbers, enticed by higher interest rates and the prospect of waiting out some market turmoil.

But now and in 2024, cash could lose its cache if stocks and bonds rally as has been seen historically during “the pause period” – that is, the months between the final interest rate hike and the first cut.

Explore how to access these themes by browsing ETFs on iShares.com.

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🎯 On Our Radar

1. Your Sam Sulek era may need to be postponed. Gym-goers don’t want you filming their workouts.

2. Theory will only get you so far in the real world. Here's how to master options trading.*

3. Sorry, Bob. The hairstyle of the year has been decided – and it’s a long shot.

4. You should take crypto protection seriously. Here’s what makes the OG blockchain safer than Fort Knox.*

5. Eat it up. We’re leaving these food trends in 2023.

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