Hi Do, Here are Todd’s latest fun picks to take your financial skills to the next level... Warning! The financial markets are in a late stage historic bubble (see resources below).
And that means it's time to dust off your risk management skills to prepare for the inevitable decline.
The danger is no longer a question of "if", but "when."
My warnings are worth listening to because I have successfully traded every bubble (except one) in modern history. Few people can make that claim: I managed the portfolio of our hedge fund through the 1987 crash moving 100% out of risk assets the week before the historic one-day collapse. I sold my investment management business and reallocated my personal portfolio before the 2000 market top. I was two years too early, but it worked out anyway. I sold my entire real estate investment portfolio (except for my personal residence) from 2005-2007, right before the epic real estate market collapse and Great Recession. I published the "Great Bond Bubble" post in 2013 stating there was no positive expectancy remaining in bonds net of inflation. Subsequent five year returns for the bond market were the worst in recorded history, and everything stated in that post remains valid today. And I encourage you to re-read my "Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere" post that was published January 27, 2018 - within one day of the risk adjusted high for the entire bull market from the 2009 low. The eerie parallels to today's market are disconcerting, to put it mildly. The thing you want to realize is that the only thing government funny-munny policies have done since my 2018 post above is kick the can down the road and make everything more dangerous. None of the problems were solved, and the economic fundamentals have dramatically declined. We are more leveraged with more debt, and valuations are more extreme creating greater risk, than ever before.
Worse yet, the economic underpinnings this time around are in the bottom 10% historically because of Covid, while valuations and risk are in the top few percent (or breaking into all time highs). That has never occurred before.
It's a toxic combination fueled by a speculative mania driven by permissive central bank policies.
I've warned the students in my Expectancy Wealth Planning course and provided the community with the risk management tools and investment management strategies so they can safely prosper while the sun shines, but batten down the hatches as soon as foul weather strikes.
Now it's time to make sure you know what's coming as well.
Nobody can forecast when the final top will occur because getting that part right is pure luck.
However, we do know that all the boxes are checked for an epic bubble of historic significance, which means we know with mathematical confidence that the risk/reward for conventional passive investment strategies (buy and hold) is extremely unfavorable.
It's time to dust off your risk management skills.
So please check out my 2018 article "Bubbles, Bubbles, Everywhere." Surprisingly, everything from that article 3 years ago reads like it was written today, and you'll get risk management tips in there without paying me a dime.
And if you want comprehensive risk management education along with helpful tools and resources then become part of my Expectancy Wealth Planning community here.
Below is a sampling of two timely articles that I shared with my course community. I hope this information gives you adequate warning to protect your portfolio... Jeremy is respected within the investment industry for his deep experience and expertise. Like me, he has actively managed money through every bubble in modern history (I missed the Japan bubble because I wasn't trading the international markets at that time). This uncommon experience gives unusual perspective for how these bubbles develop and what qualifies as extreme market conditions. As he states, the situation today checks all the boxes. It's a historic bubble that will go down in the record books so get prepared. Jason picks up the analysis where Jeremy (above) leaves off. Jeremy brilliantly explains the big-picture, macro-economic, check-all-the-boxes issues from a seasoned veteran's perspective. Jason follows that analysis by giving you the remaining pieces that Jeremy left out. He quantifies the current speculative extreme in penny stocks, call options, new issues, SPAC funding, and more in various posts on his site. FYI, these extremes historically accumulate toward the end stages of the bubble cycle when risk is highest and reward is lowest. Again, nobody can forecast the exact final high, including me. That's luck. But we can know when all the conditions for a historic speculative bubble are fulfilled so that it makes investment sense to prepare with smart risk management. "Do A Barrel Roll" | Just For Fun!! Many of you told me that you enjoyed last week's Google-humor, so I thought you might enjoy another "round"... literally! Search "do a barrel roll" in your favorite browser. It's 10 seconds for a quick smile.
Onward and upward!
Todd Tresidder
Discover how risk management grows your portfolio with greater consistency and reliability. My Expectancy Wealth Planning course teaches you "deep diversification" principles, unusual strategies, and connects you to specialized software and support services. This isn't the same old worn out "risk dilution" strategy (bonds and cash) that reduces expected return as much as risk. Instead, Expectancy Wealth Planning shows you how to increase expected return while reducing risk at the same time. Get started now. You get a full 30 days... without risk.
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