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Friday, October 28, 2022 |
Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
If you get on the internet today, there's a good chance you're going to be reading a lot about Tom Brady. As a matter of fact, after surfing through the entire internet this morning, I noticed that roughly 57% of all headlines in the world were about Brady. |
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We won't be diving into Brady's personal life in today's newsletter, but we will be diving into his latest loss on the field, plus we'll also be taking a look at how long Ja'Marr Chase might be out for the Bengals. |
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Let's get to the rundown. |
1. Today's show: Tom Brady hits historical low in loss to Ravens |
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It's been a rough year for Tom Brady, and things got even uglier Thursday night with the Buccaneers dropping to 3-5 following their 27-22 loss to the Ravens. The only upside for the Buccaneers is that as bad as things have been, they could still be in a tie for first place in the NFC South heading into Week 9 if the Panthers beat the Falcons on Sunday. |
Following the game, Ryan Wilson and I dumped Will Brinson and recorded a podcast. Here's what we talked about: |
- Tom Brady is in the worst rut of his career. Brady's career might not have hit rock bottom Thursday night, but after 23 years, it seems to be getting close. With the Buccaneers losing, Brady is now two games under .500 (3-5) for the first time ever. The quarterback has also lost five times in a six-game span for the first time in his career. Brady is also on a three-game losing streak for the first time in TWENTY YEARS. And to add insult to injury, Brady took three sacks last night, making him the MOST SACKED quarterback in NFL history.
- Buccaneers offense disappears after hot start. The Buccaneers offense actually got off to a quick start last night with 10 points in the first quarter, but then it disappeared after that. After those initial points, the Bucs wouldn't score again until there was fewer than five minutes left to play in the game. Brady's final numbers weren't bad (325 yards, one touchdown), but once again, he struggled with his accuracy and got no help from a Bucs rushing attack that totaled just 44 yards. The Buccaneers are averaging just 61.9 rushing yards per game this season, which puts them on pace to be the worst rushing team in the NFL since the 1946 Detroit Lions.
- Lamar Jackson shines. After completing just nine passes in Week 7, there was some question about whether Jackson could carry the Ravens with his right arm, and he answered those questions last night. In a game where he lost two of his favorite targets to injury -- Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman -- Jackson still managed to throw for 238 yards and two touchdowns. He also attempted 38 passes, which was the fourth-highest total of his career. If the Ravens offense continues to find success through the air, this team is going to be difficult to beat because they're already unstoppable on the ground.
- Ravens rushing attack steamrolls Buccaneers. After totaling negative-five rushing yards on their first four possessions combined, it didn't look like the Ravens were going to be able to move the ball on the ground against the Buccaneers. But as the game wore on, two things happened: The Bucs lost Shaq Barrett to injury, and the Ravens wore down Tampa Bay's defense. The Ravens ended up rushing for 231 yards, with 204 of that coming in the second half. In just his second game of the season, Gus Edwards was a truck for the Ravens, averaging 5.9 yards per carry on a night where he finished with 65 yards on 11 rushes. Overall, the Ravens had three players rush for at least 40 yards: Edwards, Jackson (43 yards) and Kenyan Drake (seven carries for 62 yards). The Ravens are now 22-2 under John Harbaugh when rushing for at least 230 yards in a game. As for the Buccaneers, the injury to Barrett is believed to be an Achilles injury. If that's the case, he'll likely be out for the rest of the season.
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2. WR news: Bengals lose Ja'Marr Chase to injury; Chiefs make trade for former first-rounder |
A quiet Thursday in the NFL got turned upside down by two big stories that came out just hours apart. The biggest one involves the health of Bengals star Ja'Marr Chase, who could be sidelined until December due to a hip injury. |
Here's what we know about the Chase situation: |
- The All-Pro could land on injured reserve. The Bengals receiver originally injured his hip in Week 6 and then aggravated it in Week 7 against the Falcons. According to ESPN , Chase could be sidelined for the next four to six weeks, which might lead the Bengals to place him on injured reserve. If Chase is placed on IR, then he has to sit out at least four games, which means he wouldn't be able to return until Week 13 (Dec. 4) at the earliest. (The Bengals have a bye in Week 10, so an IR stint would keep Chase out for at least five weeks.) The upside for the Bengals is that his return would come against the Chiefs.
- The case against IR. The Bengals have a bye in Week 10, and that fact could be something that keeps them from placing Chase on IR. If Chase is sidelined for Week 8 (Browns) and Week 9 (Panthers), he'd also get Week 10 off, which means he'd have four weeks to heal if he were to return in Week 11. If his injury is able to heal in four weeks, then he'd only miss two games. At this point for the Bengals, that's likely the best-case scenario.
- Can the Bengals replace Chase's production? The 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year has been an unstoppable force this year with 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns. (He ranks in the top-six in the NFL in all three of those categories.) Joe Burrow has thrown 27% of his passes (74 targets in 270 attempts) to Chase this year, and those are going to have to go somewhere else. The good news for the Bengals is that Burrow does have good chemistry with the rest of his receivers, as both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd have 455 yards each this year. (They're tied for the 20th-highest total in the NFL.) Hayden Hurst has also had a strong season with 29 catches for 226 yards. The Bengals offense can probably survive without Chase, but it could be a rough ride, which is why it wouldn't be surprising to see them add a receiver before the trade deadline.
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Speaking of the trade deadline, the Chiefs made a surprising deal Thursday when they pulled off a trade for former first-round pick Kadarius Toney. Here's a look at the details of the trade: |
- Chiefs receive: Kadarius Toney
- Giants receive: 2023 third-round pick (compensatory) and 2023 sixth-round pick
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After less than two seasons, the Giants have decided to cut their losses with Toney, who was the 20th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. This trade seems like a win for both teams: The Giants were able to get two picks in return for a player who likely wasn't going to see the field very much this year, and the Chiefs get another weapon. During his time in the NFL, Toney has shown some flashes of being a star -- he had 189 yards in a game last year -- but injuries have derailed his career so far. If anyone can salvage Toney, it's definitely the Chiefs, and it wouldn't be surprising if he ends up thriving there. |
TRADE GRADES |
Whenever there's a trade, there's 100% chance we're going to hand out grades for that deal. |
The Toney trade was graded by CBSSports.com's Cody Benjamin. Here's what he came up with: |
- Chiefs grade: B. "This is the definition of a boom-or-bust bet from the Chiefs, but if anyone's positioned to get the better end of the bargain, it's the team employing Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, no? Toney can't be considered a reliable prospect at this point, missing extensive time in each of his first two NFL seasons. But imagine if his speed and shiftiness can be rediscovered for games at a time; you could be looking at a difference-making weapon for a title contender. "
- Giants grade: C+. "Getting a Day 2 pick for an apparent lost cause isn't necessarily bad. It may even end up a steal, if Toney remains a frequent absentee. Still, it's hard to celebrate auctioning off a top-20 pick just 1.5 seasons in, no matter who's most at fault for the failed partnership."
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3. Today's show Part II: Best bets for Week 8 |
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The best part about Friday -- besides the fact that it's Friday -- is that you get two episodes of the Pick Six podcast in your feed. Although Brinson didn't show up to recap the Ravens' win, he did make time to record his weekly picks show with Pete Prisco and R.J. White. |
Those three guys spent nearly 60 minutes going over the best bets for every single game being played in Week 8, and we're going to cover three from each guy below. |
Pete Prisco (2-1 last week in picks covered here, 13-8 on the season) Seahawks (-3) to cover against the Giants 49ers (-1.5) to cover against the Rams Dolphins at Lions OVER 51.5 points |
R.J. White (2-1 last week in picks covered here, 11-9-1 on the season) Dolphins (-3.5) to cover against the Lions Panthers at Falcons OVER 41 points Raiders at Saints OVER 49.5 points |
Will Brinson (2-1 last week in picks covered here, 9-11-1 on the season) Patriots (-2.5) to cover against the Jets Vikings (-3.5) to cover against the Cardinals Steelers at Eagles UNDER 43 points |
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4. NFL Week 8 picks: Lions, Commanders and Saints all pull off upsets |
This is the final newsletter of the week, which means we will be cramming as many Week 8 picks as humanly possible into this space. |
With that in mind, we've got five more Week 8 picks coming your way, and those will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco along with Will Brinson, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. |
Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on. |
- Pete Prisco -- Saints (+2) 26-20 over Raiders. From Prisco: "The Raiders did some good things against the Texans last week, but facing the Saints on the road is a bigger challenge. New Orleans will have been rested after losing last Thursday and should have some injured players back. The Saints defense hasn't been good, but this is the game where it starts to turn it around." For the rest of Prisco's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here .
- Will Brinson -- Lions (+3.5) 31-28 over Dolphins. From Brinson: "The Lions were everyone's trendy little choice coming into the year, and they're hitting rock bottom as dogs at home to the Dolphins. This is a great spot for Detroit to pull off the upset." For the rest of Brinson's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan -- Commanders (+3) 23-17 over Colts. From Sullivan: "We have not one, but TWO backup quarterbacks slated to start in this game, so you know there's going to be some level of mayhem at Lucas Oil Stadium. In this spot, I'll take the points and the more experienced quarterback with the Commanders. In his past nine starts, Taylor Heinicke is 7-2 ATS, which includes the upset win over the Packers in Week 7." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here.
- Jordan Dajani -- Seahawks (-3) over Giants. From Dajani: "The Giants are playing their second straight road game and have the bye to look forward to after this game. It just feels like this is the letdown spot for New York. Also, Geno Smith is a stud: He's first in the NFL in completion percentage (74%), fifth in yards per attempt (8.0), tied for fourth in touchdown to interception ratio (11-3) and third in passer rating (107.7)." For the rest of Dajani's Week 8 best bets, be sure to click here.
- John Breech -- 49ers (-1.5) 26-23 over Rams. The 49ers have won seven straight regular season games against the Rams and did so without Christian McCaffrey. Now that they have McCaffrey, I'm going to go ahead and assume their regular-season dominance continues. For the rest of my Week 8 picks, be sure to click here.
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5. 10 players who need to be dealt before the Nov. 1 NFL trade deadline |
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There have already been four players traded over the past week, and with the NFL trade deadline right around the corner, there will likely be several more dealt over the next few days. |
So who might get traded? CBSSports.com's Josh Edwards made a list of 10 players who need to be dealt before the Nov. 1 deadline. |
Here's a look at four of the players on his list: |
- Texans WR Brandin Cooks. "Cooks is a productive player and the ideal candidate for a team looking for a veteran addition at the position. In eight seasons, he has had at least 42 receptions and is averaging 73 receptions per season."
- Browns RB Kareem Hunt. "Hunt will be a free agent after the season, and it is essentially a foregone conclusion that the Browns will not be looking to match his contract demands, which makes him expendable."
- Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy. "Jeudy is having his best season since joining the Broncos, but it comes during Denver's offensive depression of 2022. He is also tied for the sixth most drops (four) in the NFL this season. The former No. 15 overall selection has two full years remaining on his rookie contract. A team will be interested in Jeudy because of the potential and reasonable financial control."
- Cardinals pass-rusher J.J. Watt. "Watt is in the final year of his deal with Arizona, and it would be entertaining to see him play for a frontline contender like Kansas City before his career comes to an end. However, the Cardinals are in the running in the NFC West, so they may not be motivated to deal him away."
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6. Super Seven: Here are the seven teams that can win the Super Bowl |
When you look around the NFL this year, there aren't a lot of teams that you would consider a Super Bowl contender. As a matter of fact, if you believe CBSSports.com's Jeff Kerr, there are only seven teams in the NFL who have a chance of winning the Super Bowl this year, and he unveiled his list of teams this week. |
Here's a look at four of the teams that made Kerr's Super Seven list: |
Bills |
- Odds to win Super Bowl LVII: +270
- Kerr's take: "The Bills are loaded on both sides of the ball, starting with the MVP frontrunner in Josh Allen. The Bills also have the top scoring defense and top defense in yards allowed per game, showcasing their strength on both sides of the ball. Buffalo is the best team in the AFC. The roster is primed to make the Super Bowl."
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Eagles |
- Odds to win Super Bowl LVII: +500
- Kerr's take: "The last unbeaten team in the NFL this season, the Eagles are deep across the board. Jalen Hurts is having an MVP-caliber season, leading an offense that is fourth in scoring and fifth in yards per game. The scary thing is that the defense may be better than the offense, as Philadelphia ranks fourth in points allowed and yards allowed per game."
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Vikings |
- Odds to win Super Bowl LVII: +1600
- Kerr's take: "Can the Vikings capitalize on the 5-1 start? They have a commanding lead in a poor NFC North with three division games remaining. The Vikings may not be on the level as these other contenders, but Minnesota is no pushover, either."
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Ravens |
- Odds to win Super Bowl LVII: +1800
- Kerr's take: "The Ravens still have Jackson at quarterback, John Harbaugh as head coach and a very favorable second-half schedule. They're set to make a run in the AFC."
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| | | | | | Saturday, it's one of the most energetic games of the season as the Florida Gators look to take a bite out of the #1 Georgia Bulldogs’ perfect season. Watch it live at 3:30 PM ET on CBS. Watch Live | | Week 8 of the NFL on CBS features the Steelers facing off against the Eagles, the Raiders taking on the Saints and a crucial AFC East showdown between the Patriots and the Jets. All of the action is on CBS and streaming on Paramount+ Watch Live |
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