| | | | Thursday, May 1, 2025 | | It's never a sure thing that a pitcher will come back from Tommy John surgery at full strength, especially when they first return. Just look at Sandy Alcantara's struggles in his first season back for proof of that in 2025. | | Guarded optimism should be the approach we take with pitchers coming back from elbow surgery – we should be open to the possibility that they'll return and look like themselves, but it's always best to get some confirmation of that before you add them to your roster. And we got a couple of examples of how it can go right Wednesday, with two former Fantasy stalwarts making their first starts since 2023 after undergoing elbow surgery. | | Before we get to everything you need to know from Wednesday's MLB action, let's zoom in on how those two pitchers looked in their first starts – and spoiler alert, both look like high-priority waiver-wire targets already: | | Tony Gonsolin, SP, Dodgers (47%) – Gonsolin had a nice soft landing spot for his season debut against the Marlins , and he took full advantage, striking out nine over six innings of work without allowing a walk. He did allow three earned runs, but there was some pretty suspect defense in the outfield to allow at least one of those runs, and it's not like there was a lot of loud contact – he had just an 83.4 mph average exit velocity allowed on 15 batted balls. Sure, it was just the Marlins, but I don't really care who you're going against, 17 swinging strikes on 77 pitches is a pretty bonkers number. Gonsolin's velocity wasn't quite back to where it was pre-injury, so maybe this was just a fluke. But it was impressive enough to buy back in on a player who had a sub-3.00 career ERA prior to an injury-riddled 2023 season. | | Lucas Giolito, SP, Red Sox (43%) – Giolito also looked quite good in his first game back from injury, limiting the Blue Jays to three runs over six innings with seven strikeouts and a couple of walks. His fastball velocity was basically right where it had been prior to the injuries, and he generated five swinging strikes with it while adding four more on his changeup. The command wasn't great, but he made it work, and that command should get better as he gets more reps under his belt. | | I'd rather bet on Gonsolin than Giolito, but both look well worth adding in most formats if you're chasing upside at SP. He's been good more recently (2022 for Gonsolin vs. 2021 for Giolito) and is further removed from his elbow surgery (Aug. 2023 vs. March 2024), but both showed enough in their returns to be worth adding in most leagues. Here's who else we're looking to add coming out of Thursday's action: | | | | Thursday's top waiver-wire targets | | | | Kevin Ginkel, RP, Diamondbacks (5%) – Justin Martinez needed to be bailed out in Wednesday's game by Ryan Thompson, but with the Diamondbacks talking about a possible IL stint to address his persistent shoulder woes, I would guess Ginkel is more likely to emerge as the team's closer once he gets his feet wet. He made his season debut Wednesday after overcoming his own shoulder issue from the spring, and there was a velocity dip here, so maybe they won't trust him in the ninth. But he was mentioned alongside Martinez and A.J. Puk as a closer option before his injury, so I imagine he'll get a chance if Martinez does have to miss time. If not Ginkel, I would guess Shelby Miller would get a chance ahead of Thompson, as he's been the primary setup guy. | | Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals (56%) – All of a sudden, Winn's numbers look more or less like we expected in a lot of ways. The overall strikeout rate is still a bit elevated, but after his two-homer game Wednesday, he's now hitting .260/.345/.425 through his first 20 games. You'd like to see a better batting average and fewer strikeouts, but there's good news there: Since going 0 for 18 with six strikeouts in the first five games of the season, Winn is hitting .366 with a 22% strikeout rate. The breakout may be happening after all. | | | | Noah Cameron, SP, Royals (6%) – I mean, look, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, so we can't say too much bad about this start. It was certainly a success, especially for a first career start. But it didn't exactly make me think we need to run out and add Cameron. He had eight swinging strikes on 79 pitches, but none of his pitches really looked great, and his command was pretty iffy – five walks to just three strikeouts, with just a 58% strike rate. It's not even clear if Cameron is going to stick around moving forward, so I'd only really be looking to add him in deeper leagues based on this one. | | Chris Martin, RP, Rangers (28%) – The Rangers' lack of trust in Martin is kind of strange. They never really mentioned him as a closer candidate this spring, and despite a dominant start to the season (18 strikeouts in 14.2 innings with a 1.84 ERA), he has pitched almost as often in the seventh inning as in the eighth, including in Wednesday's start. But they've gotta give him the ninth inning at some point, right? Luke Jackson continues to be mediocre, and he blew a tied game in the ninth inning Wednesday, giving up four runs to push his ERA to 6.55. He just isn't good enough to be a closer for a contender, but Martin might be. Maybe they give Robert Garcia a chance first, but I still feel like Martin has to end up the closer in Texas before long, right? Needs. Like I said, I'm skeptical, but with Giolito's return set for next Thursday, I'm open-minded. For exactly one start. | | | | Wednesday's standouts | | Chris Sale, Braves @COL: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – That's the first start of more than five innings for Sale. I don't care that it's the Rockies , Coors Field is still a tough place to pitch – the Rockies lineup stinks, but they still rank 17th in wOBA at home, so they aren't exactly pushovers there. This was a great start from Sale, and it was sorely needed. I do expect him to continue to pitch well, if only because I haven't really seen a good explanation for why he had been so mediocre before this. I'm hoping this was what he needed to get back on track. | | Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks @NYM: – Last August, Burnes was blunt in his assessment of the state of his cutter, as he told the Baltimore Banner : "I was getting too efficient with how I was spinning it, which was making it a [redacted] four-seam fastball." He rediscovered the feel for his cutter in September, which made me pretty confident he was going to continue to pitch like an ace in 2025, but he seems to have lost himself again. He was getting just 1.6 inches of horizontal break with the cutter while generating 14.1 inches of induced vertical break, and that's the opposite of what we want – we want more horizontal break and less ride on the cutter. He survived in this one, but with his cutter velocity down another 1.1 mph, he was probably lucky to get away with it. I'm hesitant to say Burnes is irreparably broken in some way after seeing him rediscover his feel last September, but things don't seem to be getting better, either – after Wednesday's start, he's down to a worst 20% strikeout rate, while also walking a career-worst 12% of batters. It's not good right now. | | Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies vs. WAS: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – We all held our breath when Sanchez came out to pitch after leaving his previous start with forearm tightness, but he was … fine. The three walks were a season-high, but it's not like he couldn't find the strike zone or anything, and his stuff looked about as good as it typically does, generating 13 whiffs on 35 swings. I'm still a little wary after the forearm injury, and I don't hate the idea of trying to sell high if I can get a legit top-20 arm back for him. But I didn't see anything to panic about here, either. | | Pablo Lopez, Twins @CLE: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – The Twins might have left Lopez out a bit too long by letting him start the seventh inning, though his pitch count was so low that you can certainly understand why they took the risk. He pitches well against a very lefty-heavy lineup, which is why 80% of his pitches were either four-seamers or changeups. Given that context, this was a terrific start, and it could have been even better if he hadn't run out of steam there at the end. | | Tyler Anderson, Angels @SEA: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Anderson has stretches where he's legitimately great. He had a 2.97 ERA before the All-Star break last season, and he was pretty great for nearly the entire 2022 season, too. But it usually doesn't last, which puts Fantasy players in an awkward spot. He's genuinely very useful, right up until the point where he's no longer useful at all – he followed up his strong first half with a 5.43 ERA after the All-Star break. How do you know how long you can use him for? Watch the changeup. When that pitch is working like it did Wednesday, he's usually pretty awesome. He'll lose the feel for it eventually and stop pitching at such a high level, but right now, with all the whiffs Anderson is getting with that pitch, he looks like a solid option. | | Landen Roupp, Giants @SD: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Roupp's curveball is a legitimate weapon. I'm just not sure it's enough. He throws it as his primary pitch more often than not, and it's a great swing-and-miss pitch. But it's a tough pitch to command, and the rest of his arsenal just doesn't seem good enough to make up for the times the curveball isn't quite working. There will be some good starts from Roupp in the future, but I think consistency is always going to be an issue with his approach, and that makes him a pretty fringe-y Fantasy option. I'm not sure the Giants shouldn't give Hayden Birdsong another look in the rotation, even if it has to come at Roupp's expense. | | Jackson Jobe, Tigers @HOU: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – It would almost be preferable if Jobe was just clearly not good enough right now. Instead, we're stuck in this purgatory, where he's clearly too talented to drop, but he hasn't shown that he's someone you can really trust – his 3.38 ERA is not backed up by any of his underlying metrics. The stuff still looks too good to only lead to a 17.1% strikeout rate, and if he ever does find a way to earn strikeouts more consistently, Jobe could really take off if he sustains his quality of contact suppression. Right now, he just looks like a talented young pitcher trying to figure out how to make it all work. I want to be there when he does figure it out, but I don't want him in my lineup right now. | | Matthew Boyd, Cubs @PIT: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – That actually bumped Boyd's ERA for the season up a bit, though it still sits at a very pretty 2.70 mark. The underlying metrics don't quite back that up, but they aren't bad – he entered Wednesday with a 3.66 xERA, for example. However, the Cubs have had a pretty short leash with Boyd, and he hasn't been generating strikeouts consistently enough to be much more than just a streamer in my book. | | Chase Petty, Reds vs. STL: 2.1 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – The other prospect debut from Wednesday didn't go nearly as well as Cameron's did. Petty averaged 95.8 mph with his four-seamer but he didn't command it well at all, leading to eight balls in play with an average exit velocity of 95.5 mph – it's a relatively hard pitch, but it just doesn't have the movement profile we're looking for from modern pitchers, so he'll need to command it much better if he wants to make it work. The slider fared better, and the changeup showed some promise, generating three whiffs on just six pitches. But all in all, this start gave little reason to be excited about Petty, at least in the short term. There's work to do, and he'll go back to Triple-A to get the reps. We'll keep an eye on his next promotion, but Petty doesn't need to be stashed. | | News and notes | | Mike Trout was removed Wednesday due to left knee soreness. That's the same knee he had surgery on twice last season, so, you know, that's not great! They said it was a precaution, but we'll see. | | Tyler Glasnow will be shut down 10-14 days before being re-evaluated. He's on the IL with right shoulder inflammation and I'm expecting him to be out until at least June. | | George Kirby could begin a rehab assignment as soon as this weekend. He's working his way back from shoulder inflammation and could be back in a couple of weeks. | | Tommy Edman was out of the lineup due to a right ankle injury. He's actually sat out two of the past three games as he manages that issue. | | Jazz Chisholm was out of the lineup with that right oblique injury. He said he was feeling better but he's still scheduled for an MRI on Thursday. | | Ivan Herrera will start a rehab assignment on Thursday. He remains a must-roster catcher as he works his way back. | | Max Scherzer threw another bullpen on Wednesday that went "fairly well". Manager John Schneider said Scherzer is definitely making progress and that the feedback has been a lot better. Scherzer is still worth a stash in deeper leagues. | | Jared Jones has begun a throwing program. He's on the IL with a UCL sprain in his right elbow and will probably still be out until late June at the earliest. | | Austin Hays, who's missed two in a row with a hamstring injury, is expected to avoid the IL. That's good news, given how good he's been to open the season. | | Hayden Wesneski isn't expected to make his next start until next week. He is apparently not dealing with an injury. The Astros wanted to get him more rest after his last start was so inefficient. | | Speaking of the Astros, Lance McCullers will start Sunday against the White Sox. It's his first start since the 2022 World Series. Like with Giolito and Gonsolin, we need to see what he looks like before he's worth adding. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League Channel | | Golazo Network | Can't get enough of the UEFA Champions League? We've got you covered with the UEFA Champions League channel, a 24-hour streaming channel serving nonstop goals, highlights and full match replays. 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