Handbags (and olives) at dawn | Bill Ackman goes Buffett |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for June 25th in 3:11 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a long black at The Mill in Lisbon, Portugal (24°C/76°F ⛅)

Today's big stories

  1. The US is considering yet another $3 billion of tariffs on European products, reigniting trade war worries
  2. Our analysts consider whether the stock market is actually as expensive as it seems – Read Now
  3. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is aiming to raise $3.5 billion for a company whose sole purpose is to buy other companies
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Here We Go Again, Again

Here We Go Again, Again

What’s Going On Here?

We’ve been here before: the US government is gearing up to levy fresh import taxes – a.k.a. tariffs – on $3.1 billion worth of European and UK products, adding to its beef with Canadian aluminum.

What Does This Mean?

Tariffs increase the cost of getting products across international borders and therefore tend to reduce demand for them – likely leading to lower economic growth. Of course, those products that are imported with higher duties will net the importing government proportionally more cash, and local producers may also benefit from more business. One major reason tariffs are used, after all, is to tilt the balance of how much economies spend on each other’s stuff.

The products the US is planning to target starting late next month include handbags, leather, olives, and gin – while it may also hike existing tariffs on the likes of aircraft and dairy products. Europe’s response remains to be seen.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Gin Lane, rum business.
Stocks fell everywhere on Wednesday. While the effects of any new tariffs may be negligible compared to the economic destruction done by coronavirus, investors in at-risk companies sold off shares in a bid to avoid additional financial damage (tweet this). Among the biggest fallers was French luxury conglomerate LVMH – which makes, er, bags, leather goods, and spirits – and British spirit magnate Diageo, owner of the globe’s best-selling gin. Their products stand to become more expensive in the world’s largest economy, which could lead to lower earnings.

For you personally: You’re the hard place.
Importers of potentially soon-to-be tariffed goods may be caught between a rock and a hard place. They’re faced with either absorbing higher costs and reducing their own profits – which, given the pandemic, many companies can’t afford to do – or else attempting to pass the buck to customers whose finances are unlikely to be much healthier. That risks would-be clients walking away – or worse, wandering into the arms of rivals that can afford to avoid immediately increasing prices.

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2/3 Premium

On Second Thought

What’s Going On Here?

At first glance, global stock markets look worryingly expensive compared to company earnings: only during the dotcom bubble and immediately before the 1929 crash have US valuations been higher. Dig a little deeper, however, and those high share prices – like Justin Timberlake circa 2002 – may in fact be justified.

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Carte Blanche

Carte Blanche

What’s Going On Here?

Legendary investor Bill Ackman is planning a $3.5 billion initial public offering (IPO) of a “blank check” company with a free rein to buy other businesses at will. Watch this space…

What Does This Mean?

A “special-purpose acquisition company” (SPAC) lists on the stock market in order to raise money from public investors. But it doesn’t actually do anything: it has no revenue or profit of its own. A SPAC’s only goal is to find another (usually private) company to merge with and effectively morph into. In a sense, it’s a less long-term version of the buy-and-hold strategy favored by another billionaire, Warren Buffett – only using public markets to finance purchases of private firms.

SPACs are tried-and-tested investment vehicles. For instance, space travel company Virgin Galactic last year “went public” by taking over an already-listed SPAC. After some administrative work changing the company’s name and stock ticker, investors could buy into Virgin Galactic directly.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Got a license to Bill.
Blank check companies are popular on both sides of the pond: in the UK, Non-Standard Finance went public in 2015 as a SPAC focused on lending firms, prominently backed by (in)famous investor Neil Woodford. And their popularity’s growing: last year, blank check companies raised some $13 billion. One reason might be the discount to the value of the cash raised investors often get when they first buy in – which promptly disappears once it’s spent.

The bigger picture: Handshakes all round.
Private companies that are bought by SPACs get something out of the deal too. They end up with publicly traded shares and the opportunity to easily reach more shareholders without the rigmarole and expense of an IPO. Furthermore, having to negotiate a sale price with a single party – rather than numerous potential investors – helps reduce the chances of shares encountering wild initial swings in their value.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Life isn’t about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself.”

– George Bernard Shaw (an Irish playwright, literary critic, and socialist)
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