Good morning from Washington, Florida.

Donald Trump is ahead of Kamala Harris in key swing states as Republicans are set to retake the Senate, Euractiv’s Alexandra Brzozowski reports from Washington.

As polls closed from coast to coast, Trump had won 247 Electoral College votes to Harris' 214 as of 7:20 AM CET.

In the US presidential polls, 538 Electoral College votes are spread out over the country's 50 states and the District of Columbia. A simple majority of 270 votes obtained by one of the candidates is needed to claim the presidency.

Reporting from Palm Beach Country, Florida—Trump’s stronghold—Sarantis Michalopoulos observed that Republican supporters have already taken to the streets to celebrate. 

Meanwhile, downtown is in total lockdown as Trump is expected to go to the convention centre in the next hour (by the time this newsletter is published) to see his supporters, who have gathered since the afternoon.  

The New York Times at this moment gives Trump a 96% chance of victory.

In Brussels, Magnus Lund Nielson was at various watch parties, gathering reactions from politicians and other stakeholders on the results as they rolled in.

Euractiv’s live blog on the US elections will update you on the latest developments and EU reactions throughout the day. 

Trump’s probable return to power will represent a major systemic shift worldwide and in Europe. Earlier this week, Klaus Welle, a former secretary-general of the European Parliament, told Euractiv that Europe should “protect” itself. 

It is widely known in Brussels that EU institutions and member states have been coordinating contingency plans. Thomas Moller-Nielsen recently wrote about what the EU could expect after the US elections on economy.

On the hearings front, Tuesday was particularly busy.

Austrian Internal Affairs and Migration Commissioner-designate Magnus Brunner went out of his way to show his "open-mindedness" to new migration policy ideas beyond the Migration Pact, including investigating return hubs and the Italy-Albania deal.

Denmark’s Dan Jørgensen has secured a two-thirds majority to become European Energy and Housing Commissioner. He has remained very precise about the limited support he would give nuclear technology.

Croatian Dubravka Šuica faced tough questioning on her prospective commissioner for the Mediterranean portfolio, vowing to protect the region and arguing that the EU must play “a lead role” in the Middle East.

Bulgaria’s Commissioner-designate for Startups, Research and Innovation, Ekaterina Zaharieva, passed her hearing, saying she would focus on fewer priorities, but there was little on which priorities she would actually concentrate on.

Irish commissioner-designate Michael McGrath won the necessary approval of three European Parliament committees to be the EU's next Justice commissioner.

However, Swedish delegate Commissioner for Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy Jessika Roswall left MEPs unconvinced of her environmental expertise—as Euractiv predicted earlier—and her candidacy is postponed until today at 14:30.

Another busy day of hearings is scheduled for today, including controversial Belgian Hadja Lahbib (Preparedness and Crisis Management; Equality) and Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi (Health and Animal Welfare), as well as Portugal’s Maria Luís Albuquerque (Financial Services and the Savings and Investments Union). 

Cyprus’ Costas Kadis (Fisheries and Oceans), Czech Jozef Síkela (International Partnerships) and Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius - Defence and Space will also be grilled by MEPs today. 

PARIS

France signed the first-ever return migration deal with Kazakhstan. French President Emmanuel Macron and Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev agreed on a return migration deal during a state visit on Tuesday in Paris – France's first-ever migration pact with a central Asian country. Read more.

ROME

Italy’s Meloni and NATO chief Rutte discuss strengthening the alliance. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Tuesday discussed ways to strengthen the North-Atlantic Alliance to adapt to new threats in the face of growing global security challenges. Read more.

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MADRID

Spain unveils €10.6bn flood relief package. The Spanish government on Tuesday approved a €10.6 billion aid package to help flood victims rebuild their lives along the country's devastated eastern coast. Read more.

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LISBON

Portuguese FM slams UN chief for attending BRICS summit in Russia. The attendance of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, a former prime minister of Portugal, at the BRICS summit in Russia is "not a happy formula," said Portuguese Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel. Read more.

Portuguese government ready to up support for UNRWA. Portugal is ready to step up its support for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) within the framework of the EU after Israel banned its activities, Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel told parliament Tuesday. Read more.

WARSAW

‘Provocative’ Tusk should resign if Trump wins, Polish far-right PiS said. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk behaved provocatively towards then-president Donald Trump when he was head of the European Council, said opposition PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński, commenting on the words of a fellow MP who argued that Tusk should step down if Trump returned to power in the US. Read more.

SOFIA

Borissov ready to sacrifice the premiership in Bulgaria. Boyko Borissov, leader of the election-winning GERB party, said he was ready to give up the prime minister's seat in future negotiations to form a government in Sofia but warned that this would be his only compromise. Read more.

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BUCHAREST

Romanian Commissioner pick clears controversy after secret hearing with MPs. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's nominee for Romanian Commissioner, Roxana Mînzatu, appeared before the Romanian parliament on Tuesday, where she sought to clarify issues relating to the extension of her residence in Brașov. Read more.

• EU: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hosts Prime Minister of France Michel Barnier;
• Commission Vice President Vĕra Jourová speaks at “Democracy Alive: The Brussels Summit” conference;
• Parliament President Metsola meets with Albanian Speaker of Parliament Elisa Spiropali.

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Daniel Eck, Alice Taylor-Braçe]